Friday, February 01, 2019

MFI Diary - Monthly Summary, January 2019

MFI Diary - Monthly Summary, January 2019

Welcome to the not-quite-famous MFI Diary.  This is a diary/blog that I have been maintaining since early 2006 tracking my performance and thoughts about Magic Formula Investing.  That, of course, is an investing approach from The Little Book That Beats The Markets by Joel Greenblatt.

Once a month, I do a bit of a post mortem/review of how things went in my MFI portfolios and sometimes offer some thoughts on my other investments.  Keep in mind, I am not an investment advisor, just a retired actuary who is reasonable proficient with spreadsheets.  So please do your own due diligence and if you ever think I'm smart, just read my December review.

Quick Monthly Overview

As my choice of pictures shows, my portfolios showed a little pop this month. Actually, a lot of pop.  One of my best months I can remember.  Of course, December was my worst month (ever? or at least since 2008), so I am still not back to where I was while enjoying pumpkin pie during Thanksgiving => there remains work to be done.

Here is a table showing performance for January:


 Component   YTD 
 Overall  +10.8%
 MFI Select  +9.6%
 MFI Formula  +11.2%
 MFI Combined  +10.5%
 Non MFI  +11.1%
 Dividend Index  +6.5%
 R3K Index  +8.5%
 Blended Index  +7.8%
 MFI Index  +10.9%
 GARIX  +4.2%


The first thing that should catch your eye is that it was just a good month.  The Russell 3000 (R3K) was up 8.5%.  My dividend index was up 6.5%.  But (for a change) I did better (as did MFI).  My two MFI portfolios were up a composite 10.5%.  My MFI Index (a grouping of 50 stocks that I use to track how well MFI is doing) was up 10.9%.  And my non-MFI holdings were up 11.1%.

I traded the least amount in a month probably ever.  I bought the 5 stocks for my MFI Formula portfolio January 2nd.  And then I sold some positions in my non MFI portfolio into the rally.  That was it.  My goal is to reduce my non MFI and increase my MFI holdings.

Here is a table of how the MFI Index has done over time.  This is basically 50 stocks greater than $100m market cap reconstituted once a year.  I am starting to think that if we started with a higher market cap, the results would be better... but I have no way of testing that (but will begin).


 Annual   Inception to Date 
 Year   Russell   MFI   Russell ITD   MFI ITD 
2006 11.4% 15.0% 11.4% 15.0%
2007 4.1% -6.7% 16.0% 7.3%
2008 -37.0% -38.0% -27.0% -33.4%
2009 32.5% 45.2% -3.3% -3.3%
2010 18.4% 22.8% 14.5% 18.7%
2011 -0.6% -10.5% 13.9% 6.2%
2012 16.4% 9.7% 32.6% 16.6%
2013 33.0% 51.7% 76.3% 76.8%
2014 12.3% 12.1% 98.0% 98.1%
2015 0.4% -8.9% 98.7% 80.4%
2016 12.5% 13.2% 123.5% 104.2%
2017 20.8% 4.7% 170.1% 113.9%
2018 -5.4% -3.4% 155.5% 106.6%
2019 8.5% 10.9% 177.2% 129.2%

So while MFI is losing in total, 2018 and 2019 are looking more promising. Still, a lot of ground to make up.

Here is a table showing my dividend index results for the month:


 Ticker  12/30/2018  Current   Dividend   YTD Change   Yield 
 AMLP              8.73               9.84                 -   12.7%         8.17%
 NML              6.69               7.66            0.06 15.3% 8.62%
 EPD           24.59             27.67            0.42 14.2% 6.23%
 KMI           15.38             18.10                 -   17.7% 4.01%
 FDD           11.94             12.71                 -   6.4% 4.09%
 VGK           48.62             51.87                 -   6.7% 4.16%
 NVS           85.81             87.52                 -   2.0% 3.41%
 NOBL           60.54             63.81                 -   5.4% 2.29%
 VYM           77.99             82.75                 -   6.1% 3.12%
 MRK           76.41             74.43                 -   -2.6% 2.72%
 PEP         110.48          112.67                 -   2.0% 3.24%
 VNQ           74.57             83.41                 -   11.9% 4.65%
 RQI           10.36             12.12            0.08 17.8% 8.03%
 TCO           45.49             49.80                 -   9.5% 5.15%
 SLG           79.08             92.43                 -   16.9% 3.60%
 T           28.54             30.06            0.51 7.1% 6.85%
 VZ           56.22             55.06            0.56 -1.1% 4.47%
 CHL           48.00             52.47                 -   9.3% 4.15%
 DSU              9.77             10.49            0.07 8.1% 7.92%
 HIO              4.38               4.83            0.03 10.9% 6.78%
 MUB         109.04          109.45            0.42 0.8% 2.41%
 PRHYX              6.16               6.35            0.03 3.6% 5.40%
 NEA           12.31             12.86            0.06 5.0% 5.15%
 JNK           33.59             35.35            0.33 6.2% 5.64%
 VWITX           13.91             13.96            0.06 0.8% 2.80%
 PHMIX              8.90               8.89            0.06 0.6% 2.80%
 UTG           29.43             31.31            0.16 6.9% 4.20%
 XLU           52.92             54.76                 -   3.5% 3.29%
 DUK           86.30             87.78                 -   1.7% 4.23%
 EIX           56.77             56.97                 -   0.4% 4.38%
 PFF           34.23             36.16            0.36 6.7% 6.00%
 JPC              8.34               9.20            0.07 11.1% 8.17%
 TIP         109.51          111.07            0.42 1.8% 2.84%
 SHY           83.62             83.83            0.16 0.4% 1.72%
 TLT         121.51          121.97            0.51 0.8% 2.64%
 Totals                   -                   -   6.5% 4.67%

Again, this is just a benchmark, but it is interesting to see what is doing well.  The MLPs (at very top, like EPD) really had a great 1st month.  A bit of January effect as they had been sold off strongly in December.  But Govt treasuries (TIP, SHY and TLT) were flattish.

Final table (promise) before i get into my numbers is my Baker's Dirty Dozen.  This is 13 stocks I identified as bargains on December 21st (close to the bottom):


 Stock   Start   Current   Dividend   Gain/Loss 
 AMCX          52.23          62.94                    -   20.5%
 AMAT          30.31          39.08                    -   28.9%
 DLX          37.11          46.97                    -   26.6%
 DXC          50.48          64.12                    -   27.0%
 KLAC          85.67        106.57                    -   24.4%
 LRCX       127.16        169.58                    -   33.4%
 MU          30.32          38.22                    -   26.1%
 SGH          28.75          24.81                    -   -13.7%
 WDC          35.90          44.99                    -   25.3%
 ECA            5.38             6.88                    -   27.9%
 GLNG          21.72          22.27                    -   2.5%
 T          28.31          30.06               0.51 8.0%
 TGP          11.82          12.86                    -   8.8%
 Total  18.9%

You'll note SGH (which I own) is the one bad performer here.  While I had a very very good January - I actually had three stocks that dropped more than 20% in a single day in January (yuck).
  • SGH on disappointing earnings
  • GME on announcing sale process resulted in no buyers and
  • TUP on a 60% dividend cut
Never fun to see a holding drop by 20%+ in a day.

MFI Select

MFI Select is one of my two real money MFI portfolios.  It consists of 4 tranches, with each tranche containing 5 stocks.  Each tranche is bought and held for a year.  I allow myself to pick whatever stocks I want (though I note I may tweak that).  I have been using MFI Select since August 2012.  In July of 2011 I had quit MFI investing due to unsatisfactory results.  I rebooted in August 2012 after studying what worked and what didn't work in MFI (focus on stocks with a more predictable income stream and perhaps dividends).  It has been a successful reboot, although 2018 was pretty rugged (I began to take too much risk).

Here are the four current tranches, although I note that February 1st, 2018 will close on the 31st of January and I'll pick new stocks (perhaps more than 5) on the 1st.


2/1/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $43.55 $42.29 $1.00 -0.6% -2.4%
 CASA  $18.81 $11.64 $0.00 -38.1% -2.4%
 KLAC  $109.80 $106.57 $2.84 -0.4% -2.4%
 THO  $136.33 $65.11 $1.52 -51.1% -2.4%
 WDC  $87.74 $44.99 $2.00 -46.4% -2.4%
 Totals  -27.3% -2.4%
5/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CAAP  $12.19 $8.06 $0.00 -33.9% 3.7%
 TGNA  $10.51 $11.74 $0.21 13.7% 3.7%
 DISCA  $23.85 $28.38 $0.00 19.0% 3.7%
 FTSI  $19.39 $8.15 $0.00 -58.0% 3.7%
 ICHR  $21.96 $20.57 $0.00 -6.3% 3.7%
 Totals  -13.1% 3.7%
8/15/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $39.45 $42.22 $0.50 8.3% -4.7%
 AMCX  $60.97 $62.94 $0.00 3.2% -4.7%
 CJREF  $3.08 $4.26 $0.06 40.4% -4.7%
 GME  $15.50 $11.34 $0.76 -21.9% -4.7%
 SGH  $31.12 $24.81 $0.00 -20.3% -4.7%
 Totals  1.9% -4.7%
11/15/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $43.15 $42.22 $0.25 -1.6% 1.1%
 DXC  $62.00 $64.12 $0.19 3.7% 1.1%
 MU  $38.49 $38.22 $0.00 -0.7% 1.1%
 SGH  $29.67 $24.81 $0.00 -16.4% 1.1%
 WDC  $44.92 $44.99 $0.50 1.3% 1.1%
 Totals  -2.7% 1.1%

So only 1 of the 4 is in the green.  Did I mention 2018 was rugged?  And you can see the impact of 20%+ drops in January on GME  and SGH.  MFI, in my analysis, has always had greater variability amongst individual stocks than say Russell 3000 or S&P 500.  And Greenblatt himself told us that only 5 in 8 portfolios would "win".  So it is here.  The important part is to hang through the tough times and just be sure there isn't some bias you're bringing in that makes bad stock picks more likely.

Here is a table showing all tranches back to 2012 in an aggregate form:


 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000             25,000           25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  1.9% -2.7% -27.3% -13.1% -11.2%
 Previous Tranche  27.8% -0.6% 74.9% -3.6% 43.5%
 Tranche -2  -0.1% 42.6% 10.7% 19.1% 18.1%
 Tranche -3  2.8% 8.0% -14.3% -25.2% -7.2%
 Tranche -4  11.2% 69.4% 8.5% 18.3% 26.8%
 Tranche -5  41.4% 14.2% 78.3% 33.0% 41.7%
 Tranche -6  14.1% 43.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5%
 MFI Overall Gain  140.2% 314.3% 133.3% 17.4% 151.3%
 Current Balance         60,055           103,569           58,321        29,357         251,302
 R3K Current Tranche  -4.7% 1.1% -2.4% 3.7% -0.6%
 R3K Overall Gain  115.2% 120.6% 97.0% 84.4% 104.3%
 R3K Balance         53,793             55,142           49,242        46,092         204,268
 Annualized IRR  14.5% 25.7% 15.2% 2.8% 14.5%

So if you look at "current tranche" row, you'll see in total they are down 11.2%.  But the previous 4 tranches (now all closed) were up a snappy 43.5%.  And so forth.  Overall, 100.000 put in first four tranches would be worth 251,302 today, a 14.5% annualized growth rate.

Here is another table showing how the $100,000 start would have grown (versus Russell 3000), quarter by quarter:


 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
1/1/2017 45.60%        209,503            163,936
4/1/2017 55.70%        229,473            173,735
7/1/2017 60.28%        239,060            178,782
10/1/2017 75.60%        262,489            186,886
1/1/2018 92.19%        291,114            198,926
4/1/2018 96.21%        293,665            197,451
7/1/2018 68.20%        273,125            204,921
10/1/2018 65.80%        284,097            218,297
1/1/2019 39.77%        228,246            188,479
Current 47.03%        251,302            204,268

Here is a table showing how my Select stocks did during the past month:


 Stock   Last Month   Current   Dividend   Change 
 AGX              37.84         42.22                       -   11.6%
 SGH              29.70         24.81                       -   -16.5%
 WDC              36.97         44.99                       -   21.7%
 DISCA              24.74         28.38                       -   14.7%
 TGNA              10.87         11.74                       -   8.0%
 CJREF                3.50            4.26                       -   21.8%
 KLAC              89.49       106.57                       -   19.9%
 DXC              53.17         64.12                       -   20.6%
 MU              31.73         38.22                       -   20.5%
 ICHR              16.30         20.57                       -   26.2%
 CASA              13.13         11.64                       -   -11.3%
 AMCX              54.88         62.94                       -   14.7%
 GME              12.62         11.34                       -   -10.1%
 CAAP                6.63            8.06                       -   21.6%
 THO              52.00         65.12                       -   25.2%
 FTSI                7.11            8.15                       -   14.6%

These are broadly in descending order of size of position.  SGH and CASA were crushed in earnings and GME announced they were taking For Sale sign down as no buyers.  Otherwise, pretty strong!


MFI Formula

As mentioned earlier, my 2nd real money MFI is MFI Formula.  I started it in October 2014 and it is based on a formula and random number generator.  The basic formula/screen is top 50 stocks over 130m.  Then only pick 34 largest (by market cap) and then weed that out further by only picking those with yield > 2.4%.  This has worked well in back testing.  Only downside is I do get quite a few repeat names in tranches.  Same tables.


4/3/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $166.46 $187.11 $3.96 14.8% 5.4%
 VIAB  $29.20 $29.42 $0.60 2.8% 5.4%
 GILD  $72.71 $70.01 $1.14 -2.1% 5.4%
 TUP  $47.32 $27.27 $2.04 -38.1% 5.4%
 EGOV  $13.29 $16.40 $0.24 25.3% 5.4%
 Totals  0.5% 5.4%
7/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.90 $4.26 $0.25 15.7% -0.1%
 GILD  $70.80 $70.01 $0.57 -0.3% -0.1%
 IPG  $22.80 $22.75 $0.42 1.6% -0.1%
 KLAC  $102.03 $106.57 $1.50 5.9% -0.1%
 TUP  $40.09 $27.27 $1.36 -28.6% -0.1%
 Totals  -1.1% -0.1%
10/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.36 $4.26 $0.06 28.6% -7.0%
 GILD  $78.13 $70.01 $0.00 -10.4% -7.0%
 IPG  $22.80 $22.75 $0.21 0.7% -7.0%
 PETS  $31.56 $23.68 $0.27 -24.1% -7.0%
 VIAB  $32.21 $29.42 $0.20 -8.0% -7.0%
 Totals  -2.6% -7.0%
1/2/2019  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 EGOV  $12.54 $16.40 $0.00 30.8% 9.9%
 GILD  $62.01 $70.01 $0.00 12.9% 9.9%
 IPG  $20.50 $22.75 $0.00 11.0% 9.9%
 KLAC  $90.04 $106.57 $0.00 18.4% 9.9%
 OMC  $72.74 $77.88 $0.00 7.1% 9.9%
 Totals  16.0% 9.9%

So of my 4 open tranches, two are trailing and two are winning.  You can see the January 1st tranche is off to a stellar start, up 16%! Recall I try to avoid stinkers. Just one out there, TUP - which sold off last week with announced dividend cut.


 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  -2.6% 16.0% 0.5% -1.1% 3.1%
 Previous Tranche  18.5% -4.0% 21.3% 37.3% 20.0%
 Tranche -2  7.0% 16.5% 25.2% 26.7% 18.8%
 Tranche -3  5.5% 9.3% -0.2% -12.5% 0.5%
 Tranche -4  0.5% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
 MFI Overall Gain  30.9% 57.3% 52.3% 50.6% 47.8%
 Current Balance      326,935        393,254     380,982      376,059      1,477,229
 R3K Current Tranche  -7.0% 9.9% 5.4% -0.1% 2.0%
 R3K Overall Gain  46.5% 37.5% 36.6% 36.5% 39.3%
 R3K Balance      366,022        343,670     341,715      340,876      1,392,283
 Annualized IRR  6.4% 11.7% 11.6% 12.1% 10.4%

You'll note my 4 current tranches are up 3.1% (a lot better than Select) whilst the benchmark is up 2.0%.  My annualized IRR is 10.4% (so a bit worse than Select.  But I think a lot of that was missing on 2012 and 2013, which were very strong years for MFI (recall at top I showed MFY Index was up 51.7% and 9.7% for those two years).

Here is how $100,000 has grown since 2014:


 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
1/1/2017 1.57%        113,406            111,832
4/1/2017 -1.86%        116,227            118,091
7/1/2017 -2.40%        119,144            121,545
10/1/2017 -2.56%        124,448            127,007
1/1/2018 -3.63%        131,460            135,086
4/1/2018 -0.16%        133,734            133,898
7/1/2018 2.28%        141,126            138,849
10/1/2018 -0.85%        147,963            148,808
1/1/2019 3.90%        132,405            128,506
Current 8.50%        147,723            139,225

It is working.  Not a huge margin, but slowly edging ahead!  I do realize these things can move quickly in other direction, so no "mission accomplished" banners yet please.

Here is how current stocks did in January:


 Stock   Last Month   Current   Dividend   Change 
 GILD              62.55         70.01                       -   11.9%
 IPG              20.63         22.75                       -   16.7%
 EGOV              12.48         16.40                       -   31.4%
 CJREF                3.50            4.26                       -   21.8%
 KLAC              89.49       106.57                       -   19.3%
 OMC              73.24         77.88                       -   6.3%
 VIAB              25.70         29.42                       -   14.5%
 TUP              31.57         27.27                       -   -13.6%
 AMGN            194.67       187.11                       -   -3.9%
 PETS              23.26         23.68                       -   2.9%

Pretty surprising that I only have 9 unique names for the 20 positions.  That does seem to be very concentrated.  You can see EGOV really popped with their strong earnings yesterday.

Non MFI

Ok.  For those here to read about MFI... you can quit.  I will also comment briefly on my non MFI positions.  While these stocks/securities did pretty well in January, I have decided that this is an area to shrink while I grow MFI.  It just hasn't been pretty the past two years.

Right now I'd describe this portfolio as (1) Energy, (2) Shipping and (3) Dividend/Income.  Energy and Shipping have been demolished with the crashing of oil prices in Q4 and the US/China trade war.  Oil plays just don't seem "smart" longer term as we transition to EVs and solar.  Shipping seems like a very opportunistic area, it can be really good or really bad... but more really bad as it is truly a commodity.  So I am slowly going to be trimming these two areas as markets (hopefully) improve.  I did close two energy and 2 shipping positions in January.

Here are my shipping holdings and how their their prices changed in January:

 Stock   Last Month   Current   Dividend   Change 
 GLNG              21.76         22.27                       -   2.3%
 TK                3.34            3.51                  0.06 6.7%
 DHT                3.92            4.05                       -   3.3%
 TGP              11.02         12.86                  0.14 18.0%
 CPLP                2.09            2.25                       -   7.7%
 NMM                0.85            0.99                       -   16.6%
 TK                3.34            3.51                       -   5.1%

Here are Energy Holdings

 Stock   Last Month   Current   Dividend   Change 
 ECA                5.78            6.88                       -   19.0%
 PXD            131.52       142.32                       -   8.2%
 SEDG              35.10         43.79                       -   24.8%
 CHK                2.10            2.85                       -   35.7%
 AR                9.39         10.06                       -   7.1%
 WPX              11.35         12.26                       -   8.0%
 APA              26.25         32.82                       -   25.0%
 FSLR              42.46         50.59 19.2%
Finally, here are income holdings.  I do include OXY here and ET, although they are also Energy stocks.  I may (at some time) transition some shipping names that I think are ok longer term (like TGP) over here as I wind down shipping.

 Stock   Last Month   Current   Dividend   Yield   Change 
 LADR              15.47         17.31                       -   7.9% 11.9%
 T              28.54         30.06                  0.51 6.8% 7.1%
 OXY              61.38         66.78                       -   4.7% 8.8%
 CTL              15.15         15.32                       -   14.1% 1.1%
 KCLI              37.00         36.26                       -   3.0% -2.0%
 GLOP-PB              20.33         21.58                       -   9.5% 6.1%
 ET              13.21         14.71                       -   8.3% 11.4%
 NRZ              14.21         16.98 11.8% 19.5%
 TOO-PE              17.90         18.50 11.5% 3.4%
 NTR              47.00         51.82 3.3% 10.3%
 TGONF              11.38         12.10 6.0% 6.3%
 O              63.04         68.69                  0.22 3.8% 9.3%
 INSW-PA              23.10         24.35 8.7% 5.4%
 TGP-PB              21.84         22.81 9.3% 4.4%
 DLNG-PB              18.02         19.99 10.6% 10.9%
 OIBAX                5.36            5.57                  0.02 5.0% 4.4%

So you can see it was a good month here.  Onward to February!

No comments: