July 14th 2018 Top 200 List and 8/15/17 MFI Select Tranche

July 14th 2018 Top 200 List and 8/15/17 MFI Select Tranche

Mid July is here.  I'm off on a vacation soon, so thought I'd crank out a quick top 200 list to start thinking about my next MFI Select tranche.

This is my version of the official magic formula screener from Joel Greenblatt's book.  I believe I come very close to matching the actual calculations.  When I first developed this, the official screen gave more earnings yield and ROIC data - so that is a large reason for confidence.

The formula details can be found in my blog post "The Calculation" if you want to see more.  I had a lot of help developing it from people on the Yahoo MFI board back in the day.  Also Randy Harmelink, of SMF fame, helped me automate workbook once the formulae were all working well.

I do give more info than official site.  I use Fidelity for data source and they use Compustat, so that matches what official website uses.  I do provide earnings yield and ROIC.  I also typically have more names as I do not throw out as many non-US firms and I keep some insurers and investment firms.

Before I go further, here is my MFI Select tranche that is entering final month:

8/15/2017	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
GHC	$591.10	$573.90	$3.81	-2.3%	16.3%
ICHR	$19.80	$20.61	$0.00	4.1%	16.3%
MD	$43.00	$44.34	$0.00	3.1%	16.3%
SIMO	$43.05	$52.93	$0.90	25.0%	16.3%
RHI	$44.15	$67.50	$1.04	55.2%	16.3%
Totals				17.0%	16.3%

It is a neck and neck to the wire tranche with benchmark.  It does show that sometimes the most boring company (RHI) can be the best investment.  Disclaimer, GHC is super boring as well.  I suspect whether this tranche wins or loses will be a function of semiconductors.  ICHR and SIMO can move quickly in either direction.

For the replacement tranche, I do think we're in a stretch (tightening spreads, trade war rumbles etc) where you probably want to be more defensive.  So that'll be a key theme of my picks.  But thinking out loud, I think a lot of Chinese companies have been oversold and some of my best gains ever (ATHM, YY and GA) were from China.

Here is top 200 List:

Ticker	Rank	Stock Price	Market Cap	Earnings Yield	ROIC	Dividend Yield
OPHT	1	2.70	98	5202%	30011%	0.00%
FNJN	2	4.47	135	55%	20682%	0.00%
NHTC	3	24.56	277	25%	3857%	2.04%
PTN	4	1.02	201	15%	13988%	0.00%
AGX	5	40.50	634	25%	454%	3.09%
XOMA	6	23.11	192	14%	12121%	0.00%
EVC	7	4.90	443	56%	286%	4.08%
IDCC	8	84.75	3,018	14%	2960%	1.65%
BPT	9	30.70	657	13%	41038%	13.48%
QTRH	10	1.05	125	55%	231%	3.75%
HRB	11	23.93	5,038	14%	324%	4.05%
ICON	12	0.62	37	18%	217%	0.00%
MSB	13	25.45	334	11%	18164%	#VALUE!
IMMR	14	15.73	481	11%	1349%	0.00%
UTHR	15	124.74	5,476	24%	170%	0.00%
CJREF	16	3.50	726	16%	190%	#VALUE!
GILD	17	77.38	102,142	12%	376%	2.82%
UIS	18	14.40	1,050	18%	160%	0.00%
SJT	19	5.93	276	10%	736%	12.22%
SQBG	20	1.98	125	12%	184%	0.00%
DLX	21	66.32	3,184	10%	482%	1.81%
MSGN	22	23.30	1,771	11%	251%	0.00%
YRD	23	20.68	1,280	37%	110%	1.35%
MPAA	24	19.35	376	12%	183%	0.00%
CERC	25	4.13	129	9%	6466%	0.00%
LEXEA	26	47.10	2,685	14%	118%	0.00%
INVA	27	14.91	1,693	10%	385%	0.00%
ESRX	28	81.48	46,207	9%	1014%	0.00%
FTSI	29	12.74	1,355	21%	93%	0.00%
VIAB	30	30.00	12,087	13%	122%	2.67%
DHX	31	2.15	105	13%	120%	0.00%
AEIS	32	59.14	2,365	11%	153%	0.00%
ESIO	33	17.25	618	18%	92%	0.00%
WU	34	20.36	9,439	9%	515%	3.59%
EGY	35	3.27	192	13%	110%	0.00%
VIA	36	35.05	14,122	12%	122%	2.28%
AVDL	37	7.11	274	9%	773%	0.00%
BPI	38	6.46	178	15%	89%	0.00%
TUP	39	42.13	2,161	12%	106%	6.46%
GTS	40	38.76	907	11%	132%	0.00%
NLS	41	14.65	448	11%	129%	0.00%
HPQ	42	23.71	39,027	9%	204%	2.32%
ACOR	43	29.80	1,387	9%	317%	0.00%
SRNE	44	7.10	603	9%	276%	0.00%
EGOV	45	16.35	1,084	8%	419%	1.96%
CASA	46	15.62	1,462	9%	180%	0.00%
PFMT	47	2.19	117	18%	75%	0.00%
WDC	48	79.52	24,492	12%	91%	2.52%
KLAC	49	104.86	16,484	9%	190%	2.40%
TRNC	50	17.30	602	12%	91%	0.00%
OMC	51	77.51	17,944	9%	284%	3.03%
AMAT	52	46.13	47,975	10%	141%	1.08%
TGS	53	14.05	2,233	15%	78%	1.46%
LRCX	54	171.79	30,884	10%	119%	1.48%
LEE	55	3.20	179	13%	81%	0.00%
HCC	56	25.57	1,359	34%	64%	0.78%
PERI	57	1.10	85	14%	77%	0.00%
QIWI	58	16.23	993	8%	414%	1.29%
FUJHY	59	13.85	21,238	27%	63%	4.67%
ALSN	60	41.82	5,855	9%	139%	1.43%
HUM	61	317.12	44,026	9%	216%	0.57%
AMCX	62	63.38	3,912	12%	86%	0.00%
IPG	63	23.30	8,933	9%	151%	3.35%
SP	64	37.75	852	8%	301%	0.00%
DNB	65	127.45	4,754	8%	1261%	1.61%
COH	66	0.43	143	69%	63%	0.00%
THO	67	99.97	5,284	13%	73%	1.48%
NVMI	68	27.19	781	9%	120%	0.00%
MO	69	58.50	111,092	8%	516%	4.65%
GPP	70	16.70	531	9%	120%	11.11%
AET	71	191.89	63,247	8%	932%	1.04%
MIK	72	19.77	3,611	11%	79%	0.00%
MCFT	73	28.20	528	8%	253%	0.00%
TGNA	74	11.95	2,593	10%	96%	2.34%
DFIN	75	19.05	646	11%	84%	0.00%
BKE	76	23.20	1,126	15%	61%	4.31%
TVTY	77	36.35	1,584	7%	1105%	0.00%
CVS	78	68.63	69,934	11%	77%	2.91%
YUM	79	79.14	26,908	8%	176%	1.67%
ASYS	80	5.80	88	56%	53%	0.00%
ZAGG	81	17.10	491	11%	78%	0.00%
VEC	82	31.31	355	10%	87%	0.00%
GME	83	15.28	1,559	22%	54%	9.95%
CMCM	84	9.61	1,377	7%	469%	0.00%
PBH	85	38.68	2,055	8%	159%	0.00%
UEPS	86	9.39	525	16%	53%	0.00%
BIIB	87	348.40	73,756	8%	130%	0.00%
KLIC	88	28.48	2,034	12%	61%	0.42%
BBY	89	75.88	21,876	9%	82%	2.08%
CRUS	90	40.27	2,600	11%	64%	0.00%
AVP	91	1.45	639	16%	52%	0.00%
JILL	92	8.51	369	13%	56%	0.00%
ANTM	93	250.51	65,834	7%	238%	1.16%
MCK	94	136.59	28,138	8%	117%	1.00%
PBI	95	8.96	1,686	10%	78%	8.37%
PBT	96	9.13	426	7%	14716%	6.94%
WGO	97	41.55	1,319	10%	68%	0.96%
MU	98	56.35	69,592	19%	48%	0.00%
UCTT	99	16.10	604	20%	48%	0.00%
BLBD	100	22.95	577	8%	152%	0.00%
LEA	101	187.94	12,698	13%	54%	1.28%
AMGN	102	195.91	139,292	7%	205%	2.52%
CBS	103	59.01	22,778	9%	83%	0.00%
CRTO	104	34.00	2,294	8%	101%	0.00%
MAN	105	85.95	5,750	14%	51%	2.26%
SBH	106	16.37	2,047	13%	53%	0.00%
CAH	107	50.80	16,002	9%	74%	3.67%
LB	108	31.71	8,929	12%	53%	7.57%
NCR	109	31.40	3,887	9%	72%	0.00%
MD	110	44.34	4,146	8%	121%	0.00%
EME	111	77.35	4,569	9%	87%	0.41%
EBF	112	19.95	506	11%	56%	4.14%
ATLKY	113	28.09	34,174	9%	81%	6.08%
LPX	114	27.62	4,052	17%	45%	0.94%
TARO	115	115.73	4,598	10%	65%	0.00%
ITRN	116	30.40	637	9%	72%	3.16%
CSCO	117	41.78	202,382	7%	410%	2.97%
VVV	118	21.86	4,372	9%	73%	1.25%
SHI	119	61.15	6,610	19%	43%	7.79%
CKHUY	120	10.67	41,161	14%	46%	2.47%
SNE	121	53.31	67,444	8%	90%	0.21%
TSQ	122	6.79	125	11%	53%	2.21%
ORCL	123	48.63	201,766	7%	240%	1.56%
ABC	124	87.91	19,543	8%	101%	1.71%
AYI	125	134.46	5,446	9%	78%	0.39%
MKSI	126	97.15	5,371	9%	69%	0.76%
MTOR	127	21.77	1,985	12%	50%	0.00%
GHC	128	573.90	3,141	8%	90%	0.91%
FL	129	52.67	6,273	14%	45%	2.42%
KBAL	130	16.11	605	9%	62%	1.74%
CSVI	131	49.99	697	8%	105%	2.48%
ODP	132	2.62	1,475	15%	43%	3.82%
NOMD	133	18.53	3,252	8%	102%	0.00%
NTRI	134	38.95	1,174	7%	239%	2.18%
CELG	135	85.69	65,836	7%	413%	0.00%
OMAB	136	45.34	2,230	8%	119%	3.60%
GNTX	137	23.23	6,447	9%	67%	1.81%
CALL	138	8.45	137	7%	324%	0.00%
STRL	139	13.89	376	11%	49%	0.00%
SDXAY	140	21.24	15,990	7%	188%	3.21%
JNPR	141	27.86	10,046	8%	79%	2.01%
ICHR	142	20.61	551	10%	53%	0.00%
PETS	143	38.99	796	7%	137%	2.31%
PPC	144	18.73	4,664	17%	39%	0.00%
TER	145	39.58	8,054	8%	93%	0.81%
SWKS	146	99.60	18,356	8%	87%	1.29%
ANIK	147	35.32	518	11%	47%	0.00%
SYNT	148	38.00	3,168	7%	119%	0.00%
PNR	149	43.52	7,899	9%	63%	3.19%
MMS	150	64.49	4,274	8%	94%	0.28%
PM	151	82.68	128,485	7%	125%	5.26%
VGR	152	19.05	2,533	7%	265%	8.30%
OSB	153	40.88	3,557	16%	37%	4.36%
BOJA	154	14.70	560	7%	105%	0.00%
BGSF	155	23.25	211	8%	88%	4.52%
YY	156	98.43	6,370	7%	183%	0.00%
XCRA	157	14.13	788	11%	45%	0.00%
COHR	158	163.24	4,083	10%	47%	0.00%
GPS	159	29.40	11,554	12%	39%	0.00%
HCKT	160	16.38	521	7%	113%	1.95%
KRO	161	22.50	2,608	15%	36%	2.84%
XRX	162	25.27	6,506	11%	45%	3.96%
CRT	163	14.60	88	8%	78%	8.39%
STX	164	59.02	17,175	7%	84%	0.00%
ABBV	165	96.63	154,221	6%	364%	3.38%
ACCO	166	14.45	1,590	10%	47%	0.83%
NCMI	167	8.42	645	7%	134%	0.00%
NLSN	168	31.08	11,104	7%	141%	4.41%
GIB	169	65.94	19,188	6%	291%	0.00%
SNA	170	165.26	9,546	9%	53%	1.92%
LYB	171	107.38	42,415	12%	36%	3.54%
AAPL	172	191.33	969,755	6%	188%	0.00%
WINA	173	144.70	597	6%	409%	0.33%
LCI	174	13.60	521	14%	33%	0.00%
HI	175	49.25	3,118	7%	106%	1.68%
KORS	176	66.55	10,266	7%	80%	0.00%
USNA	177	108.70	2,638	6%	153%	0.00%
CSGS	178	41.30	1,367	8%	66%	1.97%
WBA	179	65.17	64,864	9%	50%	2.46%
MLHR	180	38.75	2,329	8%	56%	1.86%
CHS	181	8.06	1,010	16%	30%	0.00%
ATTO	182	6.45	477	12%	34%	#VALUE!
HLF	183	53.93	8,230	6%	160%	0.00%
KNMCY	184	49.48	6,801	8%	61%	1.23%
GNC	185	3.42	285	13%	33%	0.00%
HOLI	186	21.61	1,325	13%	33%	0.56%
IMBBY	187	37.99	36,166	6%	136%	6.20%
NVO	188	49.88	121,822	7%	131%	2.57%
GENC	189	16.10	237	9%	45%	0.00%
CO	190	8.05	1,149	8%	50%	0.99%
MBUU	191	42.28	873	7%	127%	0.68%
CA	192	44.06	18,241	6%	484%	2.32%
LZB	193	30.10	1,429	10%	37%	1.56%
AMN	194	59.55	2,925	7%	92%	0.00%
PLUS	195	98.65	1,358	8%	63%	0.00%
CC	196	44.88	8,452	11%	34%	0.89%
LFVN	197	9.34	132	7%	113%	0.00%
SAFM	198	102.59	2,309	18%	28%	1.17%
TSN	199	66.30	24,531	10%	38%	1.58%
OSK	200	73.60	5,557	10%	38%	1.26%

People should always do their own due diligence as always possible I make mistakes.  The yields should also always be checked as sometimes they are backwards looking, exclude special dividends etc.

Here is the official top 50 list.  All 50 of the official list are within my top 124.  ABC is often an outlier for some reason.

Ticker	Mkt Cap	Date	My Ranking	Price	EY	ROIC
ACOR	1,391	13-Jul	43	29.80	9%	317%
AEIS	2,338	13-Jul	32	59.14	11%	153%
ALSN	5,749	13-Jul	60	41.82	9%	139%
MO	110,789	13-Jul	69	58.50	8%	516%
AMCX	3,794	13-Jul	62	63.38	12%	86%
ABC	19,318	13-Jul	124	87.91	8%	101%
AMAT	46,501	13-Jul	52	46.13	10%	141%
AGX	631	13-Jul	5	40.50	25%	454%
HRB	5,007	13-Jul	11	23.93	14%	324%
BPT	657	13-Jul	9	30.70	13%	41038%
CASA	1,278	13-Jul	46	15.62	9%	180%
CERC	130	13-Jul	25	4.13	9%	6466%
CJREF	728	13-Jul	16	3.50	16%	190%
DLX	3,173	13-Jul	21	66.32	10%	482%
DNB	4,716	13-Jul	65	127.45	8%	1261%
ESIO	593	13-Jul	33	17.25	18%	92%
EVC	440	13-Jul	7	4.90	56%	286%
ESRX	45,792	13-Jul	28	81.48	9%	1014%
FNJN	124	13-Jul	2	4.47	55%	20682%
FTSI	1,392	13-Jul	29	12.74	21%	93%
GILD	101,136	13-Jul	17	77.38	12%	376%
HPQ	38,185	13-Jul	42	23.71	9%	204%
IMMR	478	13-Jul	14	15.73	11%	1349%
INVA	1,701	13-Jul	27	14.91	10%	385%
IDCC	2,945	13-Jul	8	84.75	14%	2960%
KLAC	16,345	13-Jul	49	104.86	9%	190%
LRCX	29,905	13-Jul	54	171.79	10%	119%
LEE	183	13-Jul	55	3.20	13%	81%
MCFT	527	13-Jul	73	28.20	8%	253%
MSB	334	13-Jul	13	25.45	11%	18164%
MPAA	366	13-Jul	24	19.35	12%	183%
MSGN	1,754	13-Jul	22	23.30	11%	251%
NHTC	279	13-Jul	3	24.56	25%	3857%
NLS	442	13-Jul	41	14.65	11%	129%
EGOV	1,088	13-Jul	45	16.35	8%	419%
OMC	17,595	13-Jul	51	77.51	9%	284%
PTN	199	13-Jul	4	1.02	15%	13988%
QTRH	125	13-Jul	10	1.05	55%	231%
SQBG	126	13-Jul	20	1.98	12%	184%
SRNE	646	13-Jul	44	7.10	9%	276%
SP	843	13-Jul	64	37.75	8%	301%
TVTY	1,448	13-Jul	77	36.35	7%	1105%
TRNC	610	13-Jul	50	17.30	12%	91%
TUP	2,154	13-Jul	39	42.13	12%	106%
UIS	734	13-Jul	18	14.40	18%	160%
UTHR	5,709	13-Jul	15	124.74	24%	170%
EGY	192	13-Jul	35	3.27	13%	110%
VIAB	12,078	13-Jul	30	30.00	13%	122%
WDC	23,776	13-Jul	48	79.52	12%	91%
XOMA	193	13-Jul	6	23.11	14%	12121%

So looking at the lists, here are some initial stock ideas

WDC

EGY

KLAC

FTSI

AGX

AMCX

AEIS
CASA
TGS (yes, I might consider a 2nd Argentinian company)
CVS

I guess no Chinese companies look enticing... YRD makes me nervous.