Well, it is the halfway point. Time to reconvene Barron's roundtable. I have to say, their picking ability the past few years has been underwhelming. i am not sure i would pay any of these people (except perhaps Witmer) to manage my portfolio. You can see why mutual funds and hedge funds are struggling... there just isn't any added value.
The average of the nine "experts" was 2.2%. The Russell 3000 is up 6% so far this year. I assume these were their "best" picks, though there were some epic failures. Here are the individual picks and results:
| Scott Black | |
| Stock | Gain |
| LRCX | -11.3% |
| HCLP | 7.1% |
| GTN | -1.9% |
| ARCC | 9.1% |
| HOFT | 15.8% |
| Average | 3.8% |
| Abby J Cohen | |
| Stock | Gain |
| OXY | 14.6% |
| Samsung | -9.8% |
| ABBV | -6.8% |
| China Rail | -9.1% |
| MDLZ | -4.1% |
| Average | -3.0% |
| Ellenborgen | |
| Stock | Gain |
| EFX | 2.5% |
| MTN | 33.9% |
| BFAM | 7.1% |
| SERV | 13.5% |
| GRUB | 43.8% |
| SHOP | 31.9% |
| Average | 22.1% |
| Gabelli | |
| Stock | Gain |
| MSG | 45.7% |
| BATRA | 15.4% |
| MGM | -13.7% |
| Davide | 11.6% |
| ZBH | -11.2% |
| GCP | -13.8% |
| PCAR | -16.8% |
| TXT | 12.7% |
| ENR | 23.3% |
| CNHI | -24.0% |
| Average | 2.9% |
| Gundlach | |
| Stock | Gain |
| XLE | 2.7% |
| NTG | -4.9% |
| BKLN | 1.0% |
| EXZ | -24.0% |
| DXJ | -10.6% |
| Average | -7.2% |
| Priest | |
| Stock | Gain |
| OLED | -52.0% |
| AMAT | -14.9% |
| SBUX | -2.4% |
| MLM | -1.4% |
| MET | -14.4% |
| Average | -17.0% |
| Schafer | |
| Stock | Gain |
| CNK | 4.4% |
| ORLY | 5.1% |
| COMM | -23.3% |
| EVTC | 52.3% |
| ANIP | -3.8% |
| Average | 6.9% |
| Wick | |
| Stock | Gain |
| MU | 14.5% |
| WDC | -5.3% |
| MRVL | -6.5% |
| ORCL | -8.4% |
| XON Short | -6.0% |
| SNAP Short | 9.7% |
| Average | -0.3% |
| Witmer | |
| Stock | Gain |
| KMX | 2.6% |
| OEC | 15.6% |
| Dart | 11.2% |
| Howden | 16.5% |
| Average | 11.5% |
Priest somehow managed to pick 5 stocks that all went down. And of course Barron's will invite him back next year.
Of all the names here, OXY and WDC are only two I own.
Other Fallen Stars
I see David Einhorn is also struggling. I recall he made a big (and bad) bet on Sun Edison. I remember someone asked David Tepper why he was long SUNE and he basically said he wasn't and had no bid at all for them.... I'm sure Einhorn must have been thinking, "damn". The other terrible play by Einhorn (although he ended up being right for the wrong reason and way later) was he shorted CMG as he thought Taco Bell would steal their business. Chipotle customers were not going to switch to Taco Bell - I knew that and anyone living in the real world would know that as well.
Here is link to Einhorn's problems (his greenlight fund was down 7.7% in June and down 19% at 6 months).
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