Greetings from Florida! Out of the snow for a bit. This will be a very abbreviated update as on vacation with limited WiFi.
It was not a good week. You knew it had to happen at some point. I am doing nothing, though it seems very possible sell off will intensify. That is why I am 30% cash. Perhaps I will sell a couple of my more speculative names when done with vacation, we'll see.
You have found your way to the MFI Diary. This is a blog following the investment approach described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats The Market. I have been writing this blog and following his investment approach since early 2006.
I did create a guide recently for new readers to my blog that point you to some key/interesting posts. I encourage you to give it a whirl Guide To New Readers). (PS - I continue to struggle to make this link work. You can instead go to Blog archive on left margin of this blog and you will find a link in October 2017). Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a guy with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor. You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.
Opinions here are my own, I just ramble on from time to time..
Onwards.
Last Week
I am now in the red for 2018. Hard to believe just two weeks ago I was like +6%. Quickly moving into correction territory for me personally.
| Component | YTD | Week Change |
| Overall | -0.6% | -4.3% |
| MFI Select | +3.8% | -2.2% |
| MFI Formula | +1.7% | -4.0% |
| MFI Combined | +2.8% | -3.1% |
| Miscellaneous | -5.7% | -7.7% |
| Dividend | -0.9% | -3.4% |
| Dividend Index | -1.0% | -3.1% |
| R3K Index | +2.9% | -4.1% |
| Blended Index | +1.6% | -3.7% |
| MFI Index | +5.5% | -4.5% |
| GARIX | +3.8% | -2.5% |
So down 4.3% on the week, about the same as R3K (4.1%). But you can see my Misc (-7.7%) was cause of the most pain. It is my personal match in the TNT factory.
MFI Select
I am just giving tables today for the record as short on time. Go to last week's post for more color on my portfolios.
| 5/6/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| WSTC | $24.15 | $23.50 | $0.00 | -2.7% | 15.8% |
| TGNA | $25.75 | $23.36 | $0.21 | -8.5% | 15.8% |
| TIME | $15.05 | $18.50 | $0.08 | 23.5% | 15.8% |
| MSGN | $23.55 | $25.80 | $0.00 | 9.6% | 15.8% |
| QCOM | $54.93 | $66.07 | $1.71 | 23.4% | 15.8% |
| Totals | 9.1% | 15.8% | |||
| 8/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| GHC | $591.10 | $591.15 | $1.27 | 0.2% | 12.8% |
| ICHR | $19.80 | $28.50 | $0.00 | 43.9% | 12.8% |
| MD | $43.00 | $51.48 | $0.00 | 19.7% | 12.8% |
| SIMO | $43.05 | $49.56 | $0.30 | 15.8% | 12.8% |
| RHI | $44.15 | $56.24 | $0.48 | 28.5% | 12.8% |
| Totals | 21.6% | 12.8% | |||
| 11/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MSGN | $16.67 | $25.80 | $0.00 | 54.8% | 7.5% |
| CELG | $100.60 | $99.80 | $0.00 | -0.8% | 7.5% |
| EVC | $5.78 | $6.70 | $0.05 | 16.8% | 7.5% |
| SIMO | $46.88 | $49.56 | $0.00 | 5.7% | 7.5% |
| VIAB | $24.41 | $32.22 | $0.20 | 32.8% | 7.5% |
| Totals | 21.9% | 7.5% | |||
| 2/1/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $43.55 | $42.10 | $0.00 | -3.3% | -2.1% |
| CASA | $18.81 | $20.61 | $0.00 | 9.6% | -2.1% |
| KLAC | $109.80 | $106.52 | $0.00 | -3.0% | -2.1% |
| THO | $136.33 | $131.20 | $0.00 | -3.8% | -2.1% |
| WDC | $87.74 | $85.25 | $0.00 | -2.8% | -2.1% |
| Totals | -0.7% | -2.1% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 21.6% | 21.9% | -0.7% | 9.1% | 12.0% |
| Previous Tranche | -0.1% | 42.6% | 74.9% | 19.1% | 36.0% |
| Tranche -2 | 2.8% | 8.0% | 10.7% | -25.2% | -0.9% |
| Tranche -3 | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | 18.3% | 21.2% |
| Tranche -4 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 33.0% | 24.3% |
| Tranche -5 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 0.0% | 34.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 124.2% | 422.4% | 218.9% | 52.8% | 204.5% |
| Current Balance | 56,048 | 130,592 | 79,715 | 38,194 | 304,549 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 12.8% | 7.5% | -2.1% | 15.8% | 8.5% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 115.9% | 120.3% | 97.6% | 84.8% | 104.7% |
| R3K Balance | 53,986 | 55,085 | 49,392 | 46,195 | 204,659 |
| Annualized IRR | 15.9% | 37.2% | 26.1% | 9.3% | 22.1% |
Note the new 2/1 tranche at -0.7% (versus -2.1% for benchmark).
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| 1/1/2017 | 45.60% | 209,503 | 163,936 |
| 4/1/2017 | 55.70% | 229,473 | 173,735 |
| 7/1/2017 | 60.28% | 239,060 | 178,782 |
| 10/1/2017 | 75.60% | 262,489 | 186,886 |
| 1/1/2018 | 92.19% | 291,114 | 198,926 |
| Current | 99.89% | 304,549 | 204,659 |
| Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| MSGN | 23.05 | 25.80 | - | 11.9% |
| SIMO | 50.23 | 49.56 | - | -1.3% |
| VIAB | 34.09 | 32.22 | - | -5.5% |
| CASA | 18.81 | 20.61 | - | 9.6% |
| KLAC | 113.44 | 106.52 | - | -6.1% |
| THO | 136.33 | 131.20 | - | -3.8% |
| AGX | 43.55 | 42.10 | - | -3.3% |
| WDC | 87.74 | 85.25 | - | -2.8% |
| EVC | 7.40 | 6.70 | - | -9.5% |
| ICHR | 34.01 | 28.50 | - | -16.2% |
| CELG | 105.17 | 99.80 | - | -5.1% |
| RHI | 58.54 | 56.24 | - | -3.9% |
| MD | 54.76 | 51.48 | - | -6.0% |
| QCOM | 68.53 | 66.07 | - | -3.6% |
| TIME | 18.50 | 18.50 | - | 0.0% |
| GHC | 592.65 | 591.15 | - | -0.3% |
| TGNA | 25.50 | 23.36 | - | -8.4% |
| Average | -3.2% |
MSGN sure had a nice week.
MFI Formula
| 4/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $18.45 | $19.60 | $2.75 | 21.1% | 17.7% |
| CSCO | $33.76 | $40.93 | $1.16 | 24.7% | 17.7% |
| GILD | $67.50 | $81.73 | $1.56 | 23.4% | 17.7% |
| OMC | $85.53 | $74.91 | $1.65 | -10.5% | 17.7% |
| SYNT | $16.76 | $22.25 | $0.00 | 32.7% | 17.7% |
| Totals | 18.3% | 17.7% | |||
| 7/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $30.98 | $40.93 | $0.58 | 34.0% | 14.3% |
| GME | $20.95 | $16.23 | $0.76 | -18.9% | 14.3% |
| HPQ | $17.60 | $22.48 | $0.27 | 29.2% | 14.3% |
| RGR | $60.70 | $50.65 | $0.44 | -15.8% | 14.3% |
| SYNT | $16.21 | $22.25 | $0.00 | 37.3% | 14.3% |
| Totals | 13.1% | 14.3% | |||
| 10/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DIN | $43.14 | $53.96 | $0.97 | 27.3% | 9.5% |
| GILD | $82.85 | $81.73 | $0.52 | -0.7% | 9.5% |
| GME | $20.50 | $16.23 | $0.38 | -19.0% | 9.5% |
| HPQ | $20.22 | $22.48 | $0.13 | 11.8% | 9.5% |
| OMC | $74.80 | $74.91 | $0.55 | 0.9% | 9.5% |
| Totals | 4.1% | 9.5% | |||
| 1/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $177.11 | $187.01 | $0.00 | 5.6% | 2.3% |
| GME | $18.06 | $16.23 | $0.00 | -10.1% | 2.3% |
| GILD | $71.64 | $81.73 | $0.00 | 14.1% | 2.3% |
| HRB | $26.34 | $25.46 | $0.00 | -3.3% | 2.3% |
| OMC | $72.81 | $74.91 | $0.00 | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| Totals | 1.8% | 2.3% | |||
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 4.1% | 1.8% | 18.3% | 13.1% | 8.6% |
| Previous Tranche | 7.0% | 16.5% | 25.2% | 26.7% | 19.2% |
| Tranche -2 | 5.5% | 9.3% | -0.2% | -12.5% | 0.5% |
| Tranche -3 | 0.5% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 18.0% | 43.9% | 47.7% | 25.5% | 33.8% |
| Current Balance | 294,825 | 359,655 | 369,509 | 313,375 | 1,337,364 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 9.5% | 2.3% | 17.7% | 14.3% | 11.0% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 46.8% | 38.0% | 37.4% | 33.1% | 38.8% |
| R3K Balance | 366,805 | 345,033 | 343,634 | 332,383 | 1,387,856 |
| Annualized IRR | 5.1% | 12.5% | 14.7% | 9.1% | 10.3% |
Struggle continues.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| 1/1/2017 | 1.57% | 113,406 | 111,832 |
| 4/1/2017 | -1.86% | 116,227 | 118,091 |
| 7/1/2017 | -2.40% | 119,144 | 121,545 |
| 10/1/2017 | -2.56% | 124,448 | 127,007 |
| 1/1/2018 | -3.63% | 131,460 | 135,086 |
| Current | -5.05% | 133,736 | 138,787 |
| Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| GILD | 85.46 | 81.73 | - | -4.4% |
| OMC | 77.65 | 74.91 | - | -3.5% |
| GME | 17.06 | 16.23 | - | -4.9% |
| SYNT | 23.61 | 22.25 | - | -5.8% |
| CSCO | 42.56 | 40.93 | - | -3.8% |
| HPQ | 23.91 | 22.48 | - | -6.0% |
| AMGN | 196.01 | 187.01 | - | -4.6% |
| HRB | 26.72 | 25.46 | - | -4.7% |
| BKE | 21.45 | 19.60 | - | -8.6% |
| DIN | 54.82 | 53.96 | - | -1.6% |
| RGR | 54.70 | 50.65 | - | -7.4% |
| - | ||||
| Average | -5.0% |
Dividend Portfolio
| Dividend Stocks | Start | Current | Divvy | Overall Pct Gain | Weekly Pct Gain | 12/30/17 Price | Yield |
| OIBAX | 5.91 | 6.08 | 0.19 | 6.0% | -0.8% | 5.96 | 3.9% |
| TK | 7.37 | 8.09 | 0.10 | 11.2% | -7.5% | 9.32 | 2.7% |
| KCLI | 48.89 | 43.79 | 0.60 | -9.2% | -1.7% | 45.25 | 2.5% |
| KNOP | 21.30 | 20.00 | 0.52 | -3.7% | -8.3% | 20.75 | 10.4% |
| GLOP-PB | 25.36 | 25.30 | - | -0.2% | -0.2% | 25.36 | 8.1% |
| CPLP | 3.54 | 3.23 | 0.16 | -4.2% | -8.1% | 3.36 | 9.9% |
| TGP | 18.28 | 19.50 | 0.14 | 7.5% | -3.9% | 20.15 | 2.9% |
| NS | 37.98 | 32.24 | 0.82 | -12.9% | -7.5% | 29.95 | 13.6% |
| LADR | 13.01 | 14.29 | 0.62 | 14.6% | -4.0% | 13.63 | 8.8% |
| JQC | 8.18 | 8.12 | 0.67 | 7.5% | -1.2% | 8.22 | 7.0% |
| PSXP | 47.39 | 51.61 | 1.71 | 12.5% | -5.4% | 52.35 | 5.3% |
| FDEU | 18.40 | 19.39 | 1.06 | 11.1% | -3.2% | 18.83 | 7.5% |
| ISBC | 13.25 | 13.81 | 0.15 | 5.4% | 0.8% | 13.88 | 2.6% |
| EVG | 14.46 | 13.72 | 0.41 | -2.3% | -3.2% | 14.35 | 6.7% |
| RILY | 15.58 | 18.50 | 0.21 | 20.1% | -2.4% | 18.10 | 2.6% |
| RLJ-PA | 28.45 | 25.75 | 0.98 | -6.1% | -2.5% | 27.01 | 7.6% |
| NRZ | 16.56 | 17.10 | 1.17 | 10.3% | -3.8% | 17.88 | 11.7% |
| SBRA | 22.28 | 17.63 | 0.91 | -16.8% | -3.0% | 18.77 | 10.2% |
| DSL | 19.47 | 20.14 | 1.99 | 13.7% | -1.5% | 20.19 | 8.9% |
| OCSI | 8.68 | 8.18 | 0.38 | -1.3% | -1.4% | 8.40 | 9.3% |
| TGONF | 11.04 | 13.35 | 1.79 | 37.2% | -1.5% | 13.30 | 5.2% |
| AMID | 13.25 | 14.20 | - | 7.2% | -6.0% | 13.35 | 11.6% |
| TOO | 2.33 | 2.38 | 0.01 | 2.4% | -13.5% | 2.36 | 1.7% |
| O | 25.72 | 51.25 | 21.28 | 182.0% | -5.5% | 57.02 | 5.0% |
| Totals | 4.3% | -3.8% | 6.5% |
Down 3.8%. Really hurt by shipping names TK, TOO and CPLP.
Here is my dividend index, so rough week here even with some of the treasury and utility "safe havens".
| Ticker | 12/30/2017 | Current | Dividend | YTD Change | Weekly Change | Yield |
| AMLP | 10.79 | 11.17 | - | 3.5% | -5.6% | 7.70% |
| NML | 9.38 | 9.70 | 0.06 | 4.0% | -5.4% | 6.80% |
| EPD | 26.51 | 27.09 | 0.42 | 3.8% | -7.8% | 6.21% |
| ETP | 17.92 | 19.19 | - | 7.1% | -7.1% | 12.28% |
| FDD | 13.73 | 14.32 | - | 4.3% | -3.0% | 2.67% |
| VGK | 59.15 | 61.06 | - | 3.2% | -3.9% | 2.62% |
| DDAIF | 84.57 | 88.62 | - | 4.8% | -4.9% | 3.92% |
| NVS | 83.96 | 88.39 | - | 5.3% | -5.9% | 3.07% |
| NOBL | 64.04 | 64.84 | - | 1.2% | -4.6% | 1.72% |
| VYM | 85.63 | 87.18 | - | 1.8% | -4.1% | 2.75% |
| MRK | 56.27 | 58.56 | - | 4.1% | -5.6% | 3.22% |
| PEP | 119.92 | 118.67 | - | -1.0% | -2.5% | 2.67% |
| VNQ | 82.98 | 77.11 | - | -7.1% | -3.3% | 4.56% |
| RQI | 12.65 | 11.15 | 0.08 | -11.2% | -6.0% | 8.61% |
| TCO | 65.43 | 59.38 | - | -9.2% | -6.9% | 4.21% |
| SLG | 100.93 | 98.07 | - | -2.8% | 0.2% | 3.20% |
| T | 38.88 | 38.07 | 0.49 | -0.8% | 0.7% | 5.16% |
| VZ | 52.93 | 52.98 | 0.56 | 1.2% | -3.2% | 4.42% |
| CHL | 50.54 | 51.26 | - | 1.4% | -3.3% | 3.59% |
| DTEGY | 17.66 | 17.13 | - | -3.0% | -5.5% | 3.98% |
| DSU | 11.70 | 11.65 | 0.07 | 0.2% | -0.4% | 2.36% |
| HIO | 5.07 | 4.96 | 0.03 | -1.6% | -2.2% | 0.00% |
| MUB | 110.74 | 108.69 | 0.42 | -1.5% | -1.0% | 2.29% |
| PRHYX | 6.76 | 6.73 | 0.03 | 0.0% | -0.9% | 5.40% |
| NEA | 13.75 | 12.94 | 0.06 | -5.5% | -2.8% | 5.59% |
| JNK | 36.72 | 36.27 | 0.33 | -0.3% | -1.8% | 5.63% |
| VWITX | 14.13 | 13.90 | 0.06 | -1.2% | -0.9% | 0.00% |
| PHMIX | 9.09 | 8.98 | 0.06 | -0.5% | -0.7% | 2.80% |
| UTG | 30.94 | 29.83 | 0.16 | -3.1% | -2.3% | 4.20% |
| XLU | 52.65 | 49.88 | - | -5.3% | -2.3% | 3.51% |
| DUK | 84.11 | 76.53 | - | -9.0% | -2.9% | 4.56% |
| EIX | 63.24 | 61.60 | - | -2.6% | -1.4% | 3.64% |
| PFF | 38.07 | 36.97 | 0.36 | -1.9% | -2.5% | 5.76% |
| JPC | 10.34 | 9.81 | 0.07 | -4.5% | -1.6% | 7.92% |
| WFC-PL | 1,309.99 | 1,270.15 | - | -3.0% | -1.3% | 5.80% |
| TIP | 114.08 | 112.36 | 0.42 | -1.1% | -0.9% | 2.32% |
| SHY | 83.85 | 83.50 | 0.16 | -0.2% | -0.2% | 1.03% |
| TLT | 126.86 | 119.58 | 0.51 | -5.3% | -3.2% | 2.58% |
| Totals | - | - | - | -0.9% | -3.1% | 4.18% |
Here are my small banks, they held up best:
| Bank | Start | Current | Dividends | Change | Yield |
| ACBI | 16.99 | 17.85 | - | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| ASB | 25.69 | 25.50 | - | -0.7% | 2.3% |
| FBIZ | 23.69 | 23.95 | 0.14 | 1.7% | 2.3% |
| FULT | 18.81 | 18.25 | 0.11 | -2.4% | 2.4% |
| FNB | 14.47 | 14.49 | - | 0.1% | 3.3% |
| MSBI | 32.96 | 32.08 | - | -2.7% | 2.5% |
| NRIM | 37.47 | 33.45 | 0.21 | -10.2% | 2.6% |
| PACW | 48.30 | 52.87 | - | 9.5% | 3.8% |
| SONA | 17.13 | 16.16 | - | -5.6% | 2.0% |
| WNEB | 10.88 | 10.70 | - | -1.7% | 1.1% |
| Total | -0.7% | 2.2% |
Miscellaneous
Obviously my worst performing area again. I had 6 holdings down 10% or more:
GCAP, EXXI, OMER, SELB, AUPH and ROSE.
It is frustrating and these names will undoubtedly be under more pressure should sell off continue. But I doubt I will sell much.
Finally Gold/Miners were crushed yesterday, here are my small miners:
| Miner | Start | Current | Change | 2018 Change |
| TORXF | 9.90 | 9.85 | -0.5% | 3.6% |
| SAND | 4.48 | 4.90 | 9.4% | -1.8% |
| NSU | 2.38 | 2.02 | -15.1% | -17.2% |
| KLDX | 2.41 | 1.95 | -19.1% | -25.3% |
| KL | 14.49 | 14.24 | -1.7% | -7.3% |
| GSS | 0.87 | 0.78 | -10.1% | -12.5% |
| FSM | 4.24 | 4.56 | 7.5% | -12.6% |
| EXK | 2.14 | 2.24 | 4.7% | -6.3% |
| BTG | 2.61 | 2.93 | 12.3% | -5.5% |
| EGO | 1.18 | 1.22 | 3.4% | -14.7% |
| Total | -0.9% | -10.0% |
So now down 10% for 2018. That is a wrap. Sorry for shortness.
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