We have freezing rain here in CT today. Not going anywhere. Thought I'd start a study of multiple year holding for MFI stocks. I picked 4 years ago, Dec 31,2013 portfolio. Here are the fifty stocks and how they did in the first year:
Stock | 12/31/2013 | 12/31/2014 | 1 year Change | Initial Market Cap |
ATVI | $ 17.66 | $ 20.15 | 14% | 12,282 |
MO | $ 36.64 | $ 49.27 | 34% | 76,731 |
APOL | $ 27.32 | $ 34.11 | 25% | 3,083 |
AAPL | $ 78.49 | $ 110.38 | 41% | 498,632 |
AGX | $ 26.97 | $ 33.64 | 25% | 384 |
BAH | $ 16.97 | $ 26.53 | 56% | 2,721 |
BKE | $ 49.14 | $ 52.52 | 7% | 2,546 |
CA | $ 32.54 | $ 30.45 | -6% | 15,034 |
CACI | $ 73.22 | $ 86.18 | 18% | 1,708 |
CHE | $ 75.95 | $ 105.67 | 39% | 1,356 |
CRUS | $ 20.43 | $ 23.57 | 15% | 1,304 |
CSCO | $ 21.74 | $ 27.82 | 28% | 119,661 |
COH | $ 54.24 | $ 37.56 | -31% | 15,813 |
CRTX | $ 9.49 | $ 9.48 | 0% | 252 |
DLX | $ 51.10 | $ 62.25 | 22% | 2,625 |
DHX | $ 7.25 | $ 10.01 | 38% | 418 |
EBIX | $ 14.43 | $ 16.99 | 18% | 566 |
EGL | $ 33.40 | $ 42.80 | 28% | 578 |
GME | $ 47.68 | $ 33.80 | -29% | 5,725 |
GTIV | $ 12.41 | $ 19.05 | 54% | 392 |
GNI | $ 43.87 | $ 13.90 | -68% | 105 |
HLF | $ 78.35 | $ 37.70 | -52% | 7,893 |
IQNT | $ 11.07 | $ 19.63 | 77% | 366 |
ESI | $ 33.58 | $ 9.61 | -71% | 778 |
LPS | $ 37.38 | $ 37.30 | 0% | 3,192 |
LQDT | $ 22.66 | $ 8.17 | -64% | 694 |
LO | $ 48.55 | $ 62.94 | 30% | 18,697 |
MSFT | $ 36.41 | $ 46.45 | 28% | 311,222 |
MYGN | $ 20.98 | $ 34.06 | 62% | 1,789 |
NATR | $ 15.21 | $ 14.82 | -3% | 281 |
NOC | $ 112.18 | $ 147.39 | 31% | 25,495 |
PDLI | $ 7.89 | $ 7.71 | -2% | 1,436 |
PFMT | $ 10.30 | $ 6.65 | -35% | 506 |
PETS | $ 15.80 | $ 14.37 | -9% | 333 |
PRSC | $ 25.72 | $ 36.44 | 42% | 343 |
QCOR | $ 53.77 | $ 93.60 | 74% | 3,294 |
RTN | $ 89.03 | $ 108.17 | 21% | 28,890 |
RAI | $ 47.78 | $ 64.27 | 35% | 26,932 |
RPXC | $ 16.90 | $ 13.78 | -18% | 923 |
SAIC | $ 32.17 | $ 49.53 | 54% | 1,589 |
SWHC | $ 13.49 | $ 9.47 | -30% | 753 |
STRA | $ 34.47 | $ 74.28 | 115% | 381 |
RGR | $ 71.03 | $ 34.63 | -51% | 1,397 |
UIS | $ 33.57 | $ 29.48 | -12% | 1,475 |
UNTD | $ 13.76 | $ 14.55 | 6% | 182 |
SPOK | $ 14.04 | $ 17.36 | 24% | 316 |
USNA | $ 75.58 | $ 102.59 | 36% | 1,083 |
VCI | $ 34.25 | $ 34.00 | -1% | 1,319 |
VGR | $ 14.48 | $ 21.31 | 47% | 1,558 |
WTW | $ 32.93 | $ 24.84 | -25% | 1,874 |
Solid first year, up 12.7% versus 11.9% for benchmark.
Stock | 12/31/2013 | 12/31/2015 | 2 year Change | Initial Market Cap |
ATVI | $ 17.66 | $ 38.16 | 116% | 12,282 |
MO | $ 36.64 | $ 54.66 | 49% | 76,731 |
APOL | $ 27.32 | $ 7.67 | -72% | 3,083 |
AAPL | $ 78.49 | $ 101.34 | 29% | 498,632 |
AGX | $ 26.97 | $ 31.36 | 16% | 384 |
BAH | $ 16.97 | $ 29.65 | 75% | 2,721 |
BKE | $ 49.14 | $ 26.14 | -47% | 2,546 |
CA | $ 32.54 | $ 26.77 | -18% | 15,034 |
CACI | $ 73.22 | $ 92.78 | 27% | 1,708 |
CHE | $ 75.95 | $ 147.88 | 95% | 1,356 |
CRUS | $ 20.43 | $ 29.53 | 45% | 1,304 |
CSCO | $ 21.74 | $ 25.34 | 17% | 119,661 |
COH | $ 54.24 | $ 32.73 | -40% | 15,813 |
CRTX | $ 9.49 | $ 9.48 | 0% | 252 |
DLX | $ 51.10 | $ 52.58 | 3% | 2,625 |
DHX | $ 7.25 | $ 9.17 | 26% | 418 |
EBIX | $ 14.43 | $ 32.42 | 125% | 566 |
EGL | $ 33.40 | $ 32.48 | -3% | 578 |
GME | $ 47.68 | $ 24.77 | -48% | 5,725 |
GTIV | $ 12.41 | $ 17.25 | 39% | 392 |
GNI | $ 43.87 | $ 8.10 | -82% | 105 |
HLF | $ 78.35 | $ 53.62 | -32% | 7,893 |
IQNT | $ 11.07 | $ 17.77 | 61% | 366 |
ESI | $ 33.58 | $ 3.73 | -89% | 778 |
LPS | $ 37.38 | $ 34.00 | -9% | 3,192 |
LQDT | $ 22.66 | $ 6.50 | -71% | 694 |
LO | $ 48.55 | $ 77.27 | 59% | 18,697 |
MSFT | $ 36.41 | $ 52.82 | 45% | 311,222 |
MYGN | $ 20.98 | $ 43.16 | 106% | 1,789 |
NATR | $ 15.21 | $ 9.66 | -36% | 281 |
NOC | $ 112.18 | $ 183.09 | 63% | 25,495 |
PDLI | $ 7.89 | $ 3.43 | -56% | 1,436 |
PFMT | $ 10.30 | $ 1.79 | -83% | 506 |
PETS | $ 15.80 | $ 16.07 | 2% | 333 |
PRSC | $ 25.72 | $ 46.92 | 82% | 343 |
QCOR | $ 53.77 | $ 93.00 | 73% | 3,294 |
RTN | $ 89.03 | $ 119.44 | 34% | 28,890 |
RAI | $ 47.78 | $ 92.30 | 93% | 26,932 |
RPXC | $ 16.90 | $ 10.96 | -35% | 923 |
SAIC | $ 32.17 | $ 44.01 | 37% | 1,589 |
SWHC | $ 13.49 | $ 21.98 | 63% | 753 |
STRA | $ 34.47 | $ 59.42 | 72% | 381 |
RGR | $ 71.03 | $ 56.59 | -20% | 1,397 |
UIS | $ 33.57 | $ 11.05 | -67% | 1,475 |
UNTD | $ 13.76 | $ 11.79 | -14% | 182 |
SPOK | $ 14.04 | $ 17.06 | 22% | 316 |
USNA | $ 75.58 | $ 63.88 | -15% | 1,083 |
VCI | $ 34.25 | $ 24.76 | -28% | 1,319 |
VGR | $ 14.48 | $ 17.85 | 23% | 1,558 |
WTW | $ 32.93 | $ 22.80 | -31% | 1,874 |
12% |
Wow, year 2 sucked, essentially flat. Actually, not a terrible suck as Russell 3000 was basically flat for 2015 (how quickly we forget). Note I am sure I have missed some dividends => this is quick and dirty. Also several companies at this point have been bought: VCI, LO, GTIV, QCOR, CRTX and LPS. Also GNI has been dissolved.
Let us now look at year 3 totals.
Stock | 12/31/2013 | 12/31/2016 | 3 year Change | Initial Market Cap |
ATVI | $ 17.66 | $ 35.89 | 103% | 12,282 |
MO | $ 36.64 | $ 65.84 | 80% | 76,731 |
APOL | $ 27.32 | $ 9.80 | -64% | 3,083 |
AAPL | $ 78.49 | $ 113.99 | 45% | 498,632 |
AGX | $ 26.97 | $ 69.50 | 158% | 384 |
BAH | $ 16.97 | $ 35.38 | 108% | 2,721 |
BKE | $ 49.14 | $ 20.87 | -58% | 2,546 |
CA | $ 32.54 | $ 30.78 | -5% | 15,034 |
CACI | $ 73.22 | $ 124.30 | 70% | 1,708 |
CHE | $ 75.95 | $ 159.54 | 110% | 1,356 |
CRUS | $ 20.43 | $ 56.54 | 177% | 1,304 |
CSCO | $ 21.74 | $ 29.18 | 34% | 119,661 |
COH | $ 54.24 | $ 35.02 | -35% | 15,813 |
CRTX | $ 9.49 | $ 9.48 | 0% | 252 |
DLX | $ 51.10 | $ 70.39 | 38% | 2,625 |
DHX | $ 7.25 | $ 6.25 | -14% | 418 |
EBIX | $ 14.43 | $ 56.77 | 293% | 566 |
EGL | $ 33.40 | $ 33.70 | 1% | 578 |
GME | $ 47.68 | $ 23.51 | -51% | 5,725 |
GTIV | $ 12.41 | $ 17.25 | 39% | 392 |
GNI | $ 43.87 | $ 8.10 | -82% | 105 |
HLF | $ 78.35 | $ 48.14 | -39% | 7,893 |
IQNT | $ 11.07 | $ 22.92 | 107% | 366 |
ESI | $ 33.58 | $ - | -100% | 778 |
LPS | $ 37.38 | $ 34.00 | -9% | 3,192 |
LQDT | $ 22.66 | $ 9.75 | -57% | 694 |
LO | $ 48.55 | $ 77.27 | 59% | 18,697 |
MSFT | $ 36.41 | $ 60.78 | 67% | 311,222 |
MYGN | $ 20.98 | $ 16.67 | -21% | 1,789 |
NATR | $ 15.21 | $ 14.85 | -2% | 281 |
NOC | $ 112.18 | $ 229.23 | 104% | 25,495 |
PDLI | $ 7.89 | $ 2.12 | -73% | 1,436 |
PFMT | $ 10.30 | $ 2.35 | -77% | 506 |
PETS | $ 15.80 | $ 22.52 | 43% | 333 |
PRSC | $ 25.72 | $ 38.05 | 48% | 343 |
QCOR | $ 53.77 | $ 93.00 | 73% | 3,294 |
RTN | $ 89.03 | $ 139.96 | 57% | 28,890 |
RAI | $ 47.78 | $ 112.08 | 135% | 26,932 |
RPXC | $ 16.90 | $ 10.76 | -36% | 923 |
SAIC | $ 32.17 | $ 83.39 | 159% | 1,589 |
SWHC | $ 13.49 | $ 21.08 | 56% | 753 |
STRA | $ 34.47 | $ 79.69 | 131% | 381 |
RGR | $ 71.03 | $ 51.41 | -28% | 1,397 |
UIS | $ 33.57 | $ 14.95 | -55% | 1,475 |
UNTD | $ 13.76 | $ 11.00 | -20% | 182 |
SPOK | $ 14.04 | $ 20.15 | 43% | 316 |
USNA | $ 75.58 | $ 61.20 | -19% | 1,083 |
VCI | $ 34.25 | $ 24.76 | -28% | 1,319 |
VGR | $ 14.48 | $ 20.43 | 41% | 1,558 |
WTW | $ 32.93 | $ 11.45 | -65% | 1,874 |
29% |
Up about 17% year over year. The Russell 3000 was up 12.5%, so a solid result, even with the 6 stocks bought out. And two more disappeared this year, UNTD and IQNT were bought and ESI went bankrupt. We are certainly making a solid case for buy and hold. But let us now see how 2017 has treated this portfolio as we know MFI has struggled this year.
Stock | 12/31/2013 | 12/22/2017 | 4 year Change | Initial Market Cap |
ATVI | $ 17.66 | $ 64.51 | 265% | 12,282 |
MO | $ 36.64 | $ 72.14 | 97% | 76,731 |
APOL | $ 27.32 | $ 10.00 | -63% | 3,083 |
AAPL | $ 78.49 | $ 175.01 | 123% | 498,632 |
AGX | $ 26.97 | $ 45.55 | 69% | 384 |
BAH | $ 16.97 | $ 38.72 | 128% | 2,721 |
BKE | $ 49.14 | $ 23.90 | -51% | 2,546 |
CA | $ 32.54 | $ 33.52 | 3% | 15,034 |
CACI | $ 73.22 | $ 134.10 | 83% | 1,708 |
CHE | $ 75.95 | $ 242.41 | 219% | 1,356 |
CRUS | $ 20.43 | $ 52.38 | 156% | 1,304 |
CSCO | $ 21.74 | $ 38.55 | 77% | 119,661 |
COH | $ 54.24 | $ 44.38 | -18% | 15,813 |
CRTX | $ 9.49 | $ 9.48 | 0% | 252 |
DLX | $ 51.10 | $ 76.01 | 49% | 2,625 |
DHX | $ 7.25 | $ 1.90 | -74% | 418 |
EBIX | $ 14.43 | $ 79.70 | 452% | 566 |
EGL | $ 33.40 | $ 28.36 | -15% | 578 |
GME | $ 47.68 | $ 18.29 | -62% | 5,725 |
GTIV | $ 12.41 | $ 17.25 | 39% | 392 |
GNI | $ 43.87 | $ 8.10 | -82% | 105 |
HLF | $ 78.35 | $ 69.59 | -11% | 7,893 |
IQNT | $ 11.07 | $ 23.00 | 108% | 366 |
ESI | $ 33.58 | $ - | -100% | 778 |
LPS | $ 37.38 | $ 34.00 | -9% | 3,192 |
LQDT | $ 22.66 | $ 4.75 | -79% | 694 |
LO | $ 48.55 | $ 77.27 | 59% | 18,697 |
MSFT | $ 36.41 | $ 85.51 | 135% | 311,222 |
MYGN | $ 20.98 | $ 34.23 | 63% | 1,789 |
NATR | $ 15.21 | $ 12.00 | -21% | 281 |
NOC | $ 112.18 | $ 303.78 | 171% | 25,495 |
PDLI | $ 7.89 | $ 2.91 | -63% | 1,436 |
PFMT | $ 10.30 | $ 1.64 | -84% | 506 |
PETS | $ 15.80 | $ 45.64 | 189% | 333 |
PRSC | $ 25.72 | $ 58.64 | 128% | 343 |
QCOR | $ 53.77 | $ 93.00 | 73% | 3,294 |
RTN | $ 89.03 | $ 187.31 | 110% | 28,890 |
RAI | $ 47.78 | $ 118.87 | 149% | 26,932 |
RPXC | $ 16.90 | $ 13.74 | -19% | 923 |
SAIC | $ 32.17 | $ 77.31 | 140% | 1,589 |
SWHC | $ 13.49 | $ 13.00 | -4% | 753 |
STRA | $ 34.47 | $ 92.59 | 169% | 381 |
RGR | $ 71.03 | $ 55.20 | -22% | 1,397 |
UIS | $ 33.57 | $ 8.30 | -75% | 1,475 |
UNTD | $ 13.76 | $ 11.00 | -20% | 182 |
SPOK | $ 14.04 | $ 15.95 | 14% | 316 |
USNA | $ 75.58 | $ 74.85 | -1% | 1,083 |
VCI | $ 34.25 | $ 24.76 | -28% | 1,319 |
VGR | $ 14.48 | $ 22.34 | 54% | 1,558 |
WTW | $ 32.93 | $ 50.52 | 53% | 1,874 |
49% |
So up another 20%. I have largely excluded dividends, plus we can add RAI to list of companies bought (and ironically they bought LO). So I suspect if we added in dividends and gave some reinvestment for sold companies we would be pushing 55% over the 4 years. The R3K is up 53% in the same four years. So interestingly, MFI is hanging in there. My MFI Index is up just 25% in that stretch... so the churning (reconstitution every year) has not been adding and value.
Might be interesting to look at a couple more stats.
What if you just split these 50 stocks by market cap and went with 25 largest?
That takes the 49% aggregate for all 50 to 62% for the 25 largest.
What if you just picked the stocks that had my dividend flag (initial yield of 2.6% or greater)?
Stock | 12/31/2013 | 12/22/2017 | Div Flag | 4 year Change | Initial Market Cap |
MO | $ 36.64 | $ 72.14 | 1 | 97% | 76,731 |
AAPL | $ 78.49 | $ 175.01 | 1 | 123% | 498,632 |
AGX | $ 26.97 | $ 45.55 | 1 | 69% | 384 |
BAH | $ 16.97 | $ 38.72 | 1 | 128% | 2,721 |
BKE | $ 49.14 | $ 23.90 | 1 | -51% | 2,546 |
CA | $ 32.54 | $ 33.52 | 1 | 3% | 15,034 |
CSCO | $ 21.74 | $ 38.55 | 1 | 77% | 119,661 |
GNI | $ 43.87 | $ 8.10 | 1 | -82% | 105 |
IQNT | $ 11.07 | $ 23.00 | 1 | 108% | 366 |
LO | $ 48.55 | $ 77.27 | 1 | 59% | 18,697 |
MSFT | $ 36.41 | $ 85.51 | 1 | 135% | 311,222 |
NATR | $ 15.21 | $ 12.00 | 1 | -21% | 281 |
PDLI | $ 7.89 | $ 2.91 | 1 | -63% | 1,436 |
PETS | $ 15.80 | $ 45.64 | 1 | 189% | 333 |
RAI | $ 47.78 | $ 118.87 | 1 | 149% | 26,932 |
RGR | $ 71.03 | $ 55.20 | 1 | -22% | 1,397 |
UNTD | $ 13.76 | $ 11.00 | 1 | -20% | 182 |
SPOK | $ 14.04 | $ 15.95 | 1 | 14% | 316 |
VCI | $ 34.25 | $ 24.76 | 1 | -28% | 1,319 |
VGR | $ 14.48 | $ 22.34 | 1 | 54% | 1,558 |
46% |
At first glance not great. But recall I was lazy on dividends here. So that would add at least 2.6 points over 3 years (I only did first year). So that means dividend flag out-performed no dividend flag. And in my formula approach I threw out PDLI all the time as they were a melting ice cube. I would have tossed GNI for same reason. That then pushes you north of 60%.
Now let us also look at the ten worst stocks overall:
Stock | 12/31/2013 | 12/22/2017 | 4 year Change | Initial Market Cap |
ESI | $ 33.58 | $ - | -100% | 778 |
PFMT | $ 10.30 | $ 1.64 | -84% | 506 |
GNI | $ 43.87 | $ 8.10 | -82% | 105 |
LQDT | $ 22.66 | $ 4.75 | -79% | 694 |
UIS | $ 33.57 | $ 8.30 | -75% | 1,475 |
DHX | $ 7.25 | $ 1.90 | -74% | 418 |
APOL | $ 27.32 | $ 10.00 | -63% | 3,083 |
PDLI | $ 7.89 | $ 2.91 | -63% | 1,436 |
GME | $ 47.68 | $ 18.29 | -62% | 5,725 |
BKE | $ 49.14 | $ 23.90 | -51% | 2,546 |
Recall I like to throw out stocks that don't have sustainable earnings. I'd like to think I'd have caught PDLI and GNI. But two retailers and two For Profit education I would have likely considered. PFMT and LQDT both depended on large contracts with the Govt that were lost. UIS has negative net worth and a pension hole very very deep. Not sure if there are lessons here, especially after reading the contrarian chapter in Deep Value.
Summary
Thanks for sticking this far. To summarize I looked at 50 MFI stocks from 4 years ago and tracked how they have fared year to year.
- 9 of 50 were bought out/merged.
- 2 disappeared with bankruptcy or dissolved.
- Overall results were on par with Russell 3000 (about +55%). This despite MFI Index only be up 25% in same stretch.
- If you bifurcate list by market cap, the larger market caps did significantly better.
- If you bifurcate by dividend flag (initial yield 2.6% or greater) it was largely a push.
- Holding for 4 years does not seem to be a bad strategy (using one sample point).
Addendum
After I wrote this, I adjusted for a few errors. USNA had a 2:1 split I missed. EGL had a $11 special dividend. BKE has had about $6 of special dividends.
That improved the 4 year chart by about 4 points:
Stock | 12/31/2013 | 12/22/2017 | 4 year Change | Initial Market Cap |
ATVI | $ 17.66 | $ 64.51 | 265% | 12,282 |
MO | $ 36.64 | $ 72.14 | 97% | 76,731 |
APOL | $ 27.32 | $ 10.00 | -63% | 3,083 |
AAPL | $ 78.49 | $ 175.01 | 123% | 498,632 |
AGX | $ 26.97 | $ 45.55 | 69% | 384 |
BAH | $ 16.97 | $ 38.72 | 128% | 2,721 |
BKE | $ 49.14 | $ 29.90 | -39% | 2,546 |
CA | $ 32.54 | $ 33.52 | 3% | 15,034 |
CACI | $ 73.22 | $ 134.10 | 83% | 1,708 |
CHE | $ 75.95 | $ 242.41 | 219% | 1,356 |
CRUS | $ 20.43 | $ 52.38 | 156% | 1,304 |
CSCO | $ 21.74 | $ 38.55 | 77% | 119,661 |
COH | $ 54.24 | $ 44.38 | -18% | 15,813 |
CRTX | $ 9.49 | $ 9.48 | 0% | 252 |
DLX | $ 51.10 | $ 76.01 | 49% | 2,625 |
DHX | $ 7.25 | $ 1.90 | -74% | 418 |
EBIX | $ 14.43 | $ 79.70 | 452% | 566 |
EGL | $ 33.40 | $ 39.36 | 18% | 578 |
GME | $ 47.68 | $ 18.29 | -62% | 5,725 |
GTIV | $ 12.41 | $ 17.25 | 39% | 392 |
GNI | $ 43.87 | $ 8.10 | -82% | 105 |
HLF | $ 78.35 | $ 69.59 | -11% | 7,893 |
IQNT | $ 11.07 | $ 23.00 | 108% | 366 |
ESI | $ 33.58 | $ - | -100% | 778 |
LPS | $ 37.38 | $ 34.00 | -9% | 3,192 |
LQDT | $ 22.66 | $ 4.75 | -79% | 694 |
LO | $ 48.55 | $ 77.27 | 59% | 18,697 |
MSFT | $ 36.41 | $ 85.51 | 135% | 311,222 |
MYGN | $ 20.98 | $ 34.23 | 63% | 1,789 |
NATR | $ 15.21 | $ 14.00 | -8% | 281 |
NOC | $ 112.18 | $ 303.78 | 171% | 25,495 |
PDLI | $ 7.89 | $ 2.91 | -63% | 1,436 |
PFMT | $ 10.30 | $ 1.64 | -84% | 506 |
PETS | $ 15.80 | $ 45.64 | 189% | 333 |
PRSC | $ 25.72 | $ 58.64 | 128% | 343 |
QCOR | $ 53.77 | $ 93.00 | 73% | 3,294 |
RTN | $ 89.03 | $ 187.31 | 110% | 28,890 |
RAI | $ 47.78 | $ 118.87 | 149% | 26,932 |
RPXC | $ 16.90 | $ 13.74 | -19% | 923 |
SAIC | $ 32.17 | $ 77.31 | 140% | 1,589 |
SWHC | $ 13.49 | $ 13.00 | -4% | 753 |
STRA | $ 34.47 | $ 92.59 | 169% | 381 |
RGR | $ 71.03 | $ 55.20 | -22% | 1,397 |
UIS | $ 33.57 | $ 8.30 | -75% | 1,475 |
UNTD | $ 13.76 | $ 11.00 | -20% | 182 |
SPOK | $ 14.04 | $ 15.95 | 14% | 316 |
USNA | $ 75.58 | $ 149.70 | 98% | 1,083 |
VCI | $ 34.25 | $ 24.76 | -28% | 1,319 |
VGR | $ 14.48 | $ 22.34 | 54% | 1,558 |
WTW | $ 32.93 | $ 50.52 | 53% | 1,874 |
53% |
So with reinvestment of dead money and "normal dividends" I think this approach is now bumping against 60% for the 4 years. So a beat (by a slight amount) of Russell 3000.
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