Saturday, December 23, 2017

Multiple Year Holding of MFI Stocks

Multiple Year Holding of MFI Stocks

We have freezing rain here in CT today. Not going anywhere.  Thought I'd start a study of multiple year holding for MFI stocks.  I picked 4 years ago, Dec 31,2013 portfolio.  Here are the fifty stocks and how they did in the first year:


Stock 12/31/2013 12/31/2014 1 year Change Initial Market Cap
ATVI  $         17.66  $         20.15 14%           12,282
MO  $         36.64  $         49.27 34%           76,731
APOL  $         27.32  $         34.11 25%             3,083
AAPL  $         78.49  $       110.38 41%         498,632
AGX  $         26.97  $         33.64 25%                 384
BAH  $         16.97  $         26.53 56%             2,721
BKE  $         49.14  $         52.52 7%             2,546
CA  $         32.54  $         30.45 -6%           15,034
CACI  $         73.22  $         86.18 18%             1,708
CHE  $         75.95  $       105.67 39%             1,356
CRUS  $         20.43  $         23.57 15%             1,304
CSCO  $         21.74  $         27.82 28%         119,661
COH  $         54.24  $         37.56 -31%           15,813
CRTX  $            9.49  $            9.48 0%                 252
DLX  $         51.10  $         62.25 22%             2,625
DHX  $            7.25  $         10.01 38%                 418
EBIX  $         14.43  $         16.99 18%                 566
EGL  $         33.40  $         42.80 28%                 578
GME  $         47.68  $         33.80 -29%             5,725
GTIV  $         12.41  $         19.05 54%                 392
GNI  $         43.87  $         13.90 -68%                 105
HLF  $         78.35  $         37.70 -52%             7,893
IQNT  $         11.07  $         19.63 77%                 366
ESI  $         33.58  $            9.61 -71%                 778
LPS  $         37.38  $         37.30 0%             3,192
LQDT  $         22.66  $            8.17 -64%                 694
LO  $         48.55  $         62.94 30%           18,697
MSFT  $         36.41  $         46.45 28%         311,222
MYGN  $         20.98  $         34.06 62%             1,789
NATR  $         15.21  $         14.82 -3%                 281
NOC  $       112.18  $       147.39 31%           25,495
PDLI  $            7.89  $            7.71 -2%             1,436
PFMT  $         10.30  $            6.65 -35%                 506
PETS  $         15.80  $         14.37 -9%                 333
PRSC  $         25.72  $         36.44 42%                 343
QCOR  $         53.77  $         93.60 74%             3,294
RTN  $         89.03  $       108.17 21%           28,890
RAI  $         47.78  $         64.27 35%           26,932
RPXC  $         16.90  $         13.78 -18%                 923
SAIC  $         32.17  $         49.53 54%             1,589
SWHC  $         13.49  $            9.47 -30%                 753
STRA  $         34.47  $         74.28 115%                 381
RGR  $         71.03  $         34.63 -51%             1,397
UIS  $         33.57  $         29.48 -12%             1,475
UNTD  $         13.76  $         14.55 6%                 182
SPOK  $         14.04  $         17.36 24%                 316
USNA  $         75.58  $       102.59 36%             1,083
VCI  $         34.25  $         34.00 -1%             1,319
VGR  $         14.48  $         21.31 47%             1,558
WTW  $         32.93  $         24.84 -25%             1,874


Solid first year, up 12.7% versus 11.9% for benchmark.

Stock 12/31/2013 12/31/2015 2 year Change Initial Market Cap
ATVI  $         17.66  $         38.16 116%           12,282
MO  $         36.64  $         54.66 49%           76,731
APOL  $         27.32  $            7.67 -72%             3,083
AAPL  $         78.49  $       101.34 29%         498,632
AGX  $         26.97  $         31.36 16%                 384
BAH  $         16.97  $         29.65 75%             2,721
BKE  $         49.14  $         26.14 -47%             2,546
CA  $         32.54  $         26.77 -18%           15,034
CACI  $         73.22  $         92.78 27%             1,708
CHE  $         75.95  $       147.88 95%             1,356
CRUS  $         20.43  $         29.53 45%             1,304
CSCO  $         21.74  $         25.34 17%         119,661
COH  $         54.24  $         32.73 -40%           15,813
CRTX  $            9.49  $            9.48 0%                 252
DLX  $         51.10  $         52.58 3%             2,625
DHX  $            7.25  $            9.17 26%                 418
EBIX  $         14.43  $         32.42 125%                 566
EGL  $         33.40  $         32.48 -3%                 578
GME  $         47.68  $         24.77 -48%             5,725
GTIV  $         12.41  $         17.25 39%                 392
GNI  $         43.87  $            8.10 -82%                 105
HLF  $         78.35  $         53.62 -32%             7,893
IQNT  $         11.07  $         17.77 61%                 366
ESI  $         33.58  $            3.73 -89%                 778
LPS  $         37.38  $         34.00 -9%             3,192
LQDT  $         22.66  $            6.50 -71%                 694
LO  $         48.55  $         77.27 59%           18,697
MSFT  $         36.41  $         52.82 45%         311,222
MYGN  $         20.98  $         43.16 106%             1,789
NATR  $         15.21  $            9.66 -36%                 281
NOC  $       112.18  $       183.09 63%           25,495
PDLI  $            7.89  $            3.43 -56%             1,436
PFMT  $         10.30  $            1.79 -83%                 506
PETS  $         15.80  $         16.07 2%                 333
PRSC  $         25.72  $         46.92 82%                 343
QCOR  $         53.77  $         93.00 73%             3,294
RTN  $         89.03  $       119.44 34%           28,890
RAI  $         47.78  $         92.30 93%           26,932
RPXC  $         16.90  $         10.96 -35%                 923
SAIC  $         32.17  $         44.01 37%             1,589
SWHC  $         13.49  $         21.98 63%                 753
STRA  $         34.47  $         59.42 72%                 381
RGR  $         71.03  $         56.59 -20%             1,397
UIS  $         33.57  $         11.05 -67%             1,475
UNTD  $         13.76  $         11.79 -14%                 182
SPOK  $         14.04  $         17.06 22%                 316
USNA  $         75.58  $         63.88 -15%             1,083
VCI  $         34.25  $         24.76 -28%             1,319
VGR  $         14.48  $         17.85 23%             1,558
WTW  $         32.93  $         22.80 -31%             1,874
12%

Wow, year 2 sucked, essentially flat.  Actually, not a terrible suck as Russell 3000 was basically flat for 2015 (how quickly we forget).  Note I am sure I have missed some dividends => this is quick and dirty.  Also several companies at this point have been bought: VCI, LO, GTIV, QCOR, CRTX and LPS. Also GNI has been dissolved.  

Let us now look at year 3 totals.

Stock 12/31/2013 12/31/2016 3 year Change Initial Market Cap
ATVI  $         17.66  $         35.89 103%           12,282
MO  $         36.64  $         65.84 80%           76,731
APOL  $         27.32  $            9.80 -64%             3,083
AAPL  $         78.49  $       113.99 45%         498,632
AGX  $         26.97  $         69.50 158%                 384
BAH  $         16.97  $         35.38 108%             2,721
BKE  $         49.14  $         20.87 -58%             2,546
CA  $         32.54  $         30.78 -5%           15,034
CACI  $         73.22  $       124.30 70%             1,708
CHE  $         75.95  $       159.54 110%             1,356
CRUS  $         20.43  $         56.54 177%             1,304
CSCO  $         21.74  $         29.18 34%         119,661
COH  $         54.24  $         35.02 -35%           15,813
CRTX  $            9.49  $            9.48 0%                 252
DLX  $         51.10  $         70.39 38%             2,625
DHX  $            7.25  $            6.25 -14%                 418
EBIX  $         14.43  $         56.77 293%                 566
EGL  $         33.40  $         33.70 1%                 578
GME  $         47.68  $         23.51 -51%             5,725
GTIV  $         12.41  $         17.25 39%                 392
GNI  $         43.87  $            8.10 -82%                 105
HLF  $         78.35  $         48.14 -39%             7,893
IQNT  $         11.07  $         22.92 107%                 366
ESI  $         33.58  $                -   -100%                 778
LPS  $         37.38  $         34.00 -9%             3,192
LQDT  $         22.66  $            9.75 -57%                 694
LO  $         48.55  $         77.27 59%           18,697
MSFT  $         36.41  $         60.78 67%         311,222
MYGN  $         20.98  $         16.67 -21%             1,789
NATR  $         15.21  $         14.85 -2%                 281
NOC  $       112.18  $       229.23 104%           25,495
PDLI  $            7.89  $            2.12 -73%             1,436
PFMT  $         10.30  $            2.35 -77%                 506
PETS  $         15.80  $         22.52 43%                 333
PRSC  $         25.72  $         38.05 48%                 343
QCOR  $         53.77  $         93.00 73%             3,294
RTN  $         89.03  $       139.96 57%           28,890
RAI  $         47.78  $       112.08 135%           26,932
RPXC  $         16.90  $         10.76 -36%                 923
SAIC  $         32.17  $         83.39 159%             1,589
SWHC  $         13.49  $         21.08 56%                 753
STRA  $         34.47  $         79.69 131%                 381
RGR  $         71.03  $         51.41 -28%             1,397
UIS  $         33.57  $         14.95 -55%             1,475
UNTD  $         13.76  $         11.00 -20%                 182
SPOK  $         14.04  $         20.15 43%                 316
USNA  $         75.58  $         61.20 -19%             1,083
VCI  $         34.25  $         24.76 -28%             1,319
VGR  $         14.48  $         20.43 41%             1,558
WTW  $         32.93  $         11.45 -65%             1,874
29%

Up about 17% year over year.  The Russell 3000 was up 12.5%, so a solid result, even with the 6 stocks bought out. And two more disappeared this year, UNTD and IQNT were bought and ESI went bankrupt.  We are certainly making a solid case for buy and hold.  But let us now see how 2017 has treated this portfolio as we know MFI has struggled this year.


Stock 12/31/2013 12/22/2017 4 year Change Initial Market Cap
ATVI  $         17.66  $         64.51 265%           12,282
MO  $         36.64  $         72.14 97%           76,731
APOL  $         27.32  $         10.00 -63%             3,083
AAPL  $         78.49  $       175.01 123%         498,632
AGX  $         26.97  $         45.55 69%                 384
BAH  $         16.97  $         38.72 128%             2,721
BKE  $         49.14  $         23.90 -51%             2,546
CA  $         32.54  $         33.52 3%           15,034
CACI  $         73.22  $       134.10 83%             1,708
CHE  $         75.95  $       242.41 219%             1,356
CRUS  $         20.43  $         52.38 156%             1,304
CSCO  $         21.74  $         38.55 77%         119,661
COH  $         54.24  $         44.38 -18%           15,813
CRTX  $            9.49  $            9.48 0%                 252
DLX  $         51.10  $         76.01 49%             2,625
DHX  $            7.25  $            1.90 -74%                 418
EBIX  $         14.43  $         79.70 452%                 566
EGL  $         33.40  $         28.36 -15%                 578
GME  $         47.68  $         18.29 -62%             5,725
GTIV  $         12.41  $         17.25 39%                 392
GNI  $         43.87  $            8.10 -82%                 105
HLF  $         78.35  $         69.59 -11%             7,893
IQNT  $         11.07  $         23.00 108%                 366
ESI  $         33.58  $                -   -100%                 778
LPS  $         37.38  $         34.00 -9%             3,192
LQDT  $         22.66  $            4.75 -79%                 694
LO  $         48.55  $         77.27 59%           18,697
MSFT  $         36.41  $         85.51 135%         311,222
MYGN  $         20.98  $         34.23 63%             1,789
NATR  $         15.21  $         12.00 -21%                 281
NOC  $       112.18  $       303.78 171%           25,495
PDLI  $            7.89  $            2.91 -63%             1,436
PFMT  $         10.30  $            1.64 -84%                 506
PETS  $         15.80  $         45.64 189%                 333
PRSC  $         25.72  $         58.64 128%                 343
QCOR  $         53.77  $         93.00 73%             3,294
RTN  $         89.03  $       187.31 110%           28,890
RAI  $         47.78  $       118.87 149%           26,932
RPXC  $         16.90  $         13.74 -19%                 923
SAIC  $         32.17  $         77.31 140%             1,589
SWHC  $         13.49  $         13.00 -4%                 753
STRA  $         34.47  $         92.59 169%                 381
RGR  $         71.03  $         55.20 -22%             1,397
UIS  $         33.57  $            8.30 -75%             1,475
UNTD  $         13.76  $         11.00 -20%                 182
SPOK  $         14.04  $         15.95 14%                 316
USNA  $         75.58  $         74.85 -1%             1,083
VCI  $         34.25  $         24.76 -28%             1,319
VGR  $         14.48  $         22.34 54%             1,558
WTW  $         32.93  $         50.52 53%             1,874
49%

So up another 20%.  I have largely excluded dividends, plus we can add RAI to list of companies bought (and ironically they bought LO).   So I suspect if we added in dividends and gave some reinvestment for sold companies we would be pushing 55% over the 4 years.  The R3K is up 53% in the same four years.  So interestingly, MFI is hanging in there.  My MFI Index is up just 25% in that stretch... so the churning (reconstitution every year) has not been adding and value.

Might be interesting to look at a couple more stats.

What if you just split these 50 stocks by market cap and went with 25 largest?

That takes the 49% aggregate for all 50 to 62% for the 25 largest.  

What if you just picked the stocks that had my dividend flag (initial yield of 2.6% or greater)?

Stock 12/31/2013 12/22/2017 Div Flag 4 year Change Initial Market Cap
MO  $         36.64  $         72.14              1 97%      76,731
AAPL  $         78.49  $       175.01              1 123%    498,632
AGX  $         26.97  $         45.55              1 69%            384
BAH  $         16.97  $         38.72              1 128%         2,721
BKE  $         49.14  $         23.90              1 -51%         2,546
CA  $         32.54  $         33.52              1 3%      15,034
CSCO  $         21.74  $         38.55              1 77%    119,661
GNI  $         43.87  $            8.10              1 -82%            105
IQNT  $         11.07  $         23.00              1 108%            366
LO  $         48.55  $         77.27              1 59%      18,697
MSFT  $         36.41  $         85.51              1 135%    311,222
NATR  $         15.21  $         12.00              1 -21%            281
PDLI  $            7.89  $            2.91              1 -63%         1,436
PETS  $         15.80  $         45.64              1 189%            333
RAI  $         47.78  $       118.87              1 149%      26,932
RGR  $         71.03  $         55.20              1 -22%         1,397
UNTD  $         13.76  $         11.00              1 -20%            182
SPOK  $         14.04  $         15.95              1 14%            316
VCI  $         34.25  $         24.76              1 -28%         1,319
VGR  $         14.48  $         22.34              1 54%         1,558
46%

At first glance not great. But recall I was lazy on dividends here.  So that would add at least 2.6 points over 3 years (I only did first year).  So that means dividend flag out-performed no dividend flag.  And in my formula approach I threw out PDLI all the time as they were a melting ice cube.  I would have tossed GNI for same reason.  That then pushes you north of 60%.

Now let us also look at the ten worst stocks overall:

Stock 12/31/2013 12/22/2017 4 year Change Initial Market Cap
ESI  $         33.58  $                -   -100%                 778
PFMT  $         10.30  $            1.64 -84%                 506
GNI  $         43.87  $            8.10 -82%                 105
LQDT  $         22.66  $            4.75 -79%                 694
UIS  $         33.57  $            8.30 -75%             1,475
DHX  $            7.25  $            1.90 -74%                 418
APOL  $         27.32  $         10.00 -63%             3,083
PDLI  $            7.89  $            2.91 -63%             1,436
GME  $         47.68  $         18.29 -62%             5,725
BKE  $         49.14  $         23.90 -51%             2,546

Recall I like to throw out stocks that don't have sustainable earnings.  I'd like to think I'd have caught PDLI and GNI.  But two retailers and two For Profit education I would have likely considered.  PFMT and LQDT both depended on large contracts with the Govt that were lost.  UIS has negative net worth and a pension hole very very deep.  Not sure if there are lessons here, especially after reading the contrarian chapter in Deep Value.


Summary

Thanks for sticking this far.  To summarize I looked at 50 MFI stocks from 4 years ago and tracked how they have fared year to year.

  • 9 of 50 were bought out/merged.
  • 2 disappeared with bankruptcy or dissolved.
  • Overall results were on par with Russell 3000 (about +55%). This despite MFI Index only be up 25% in same stretch.
  • If you bifurcate list by market cap, the larger market caps did significantly better.
  • If you bifurcate by dividend flag (initial yield 2.6% or greater) it was largely a push.
  • Holding for 4 years does not seem to be a bad strategy (using one sample point).

Addendum

After I wrote this, I adjusted for a few errors. USNA had a 2:1 split I missed.  EGL had a $11 special dividend.  BKE has had about $6 of special dividends.

That improved the 4 year chart by about 4 points:


Stock 12/31/2013 12/22/2017 4 year Change Initial Market Cap
ATVI  $         17.66  $         64.51 265%           12,282
MO  $         36.64  $         72.14 97%           76,731
APOL  $         27.32  $         10.00 -63%             3,083
AAPL  $         78.49  $       175.01 123%         498,632
AGX  $         26.97  $         45.55 69%                 384
BAH  $         16.97  $         38.72 128%             2,721
BKE  $         49.14  $         29.90 -39%             2,546
CA  $         32.54  $         33.52 3%           15,034
CACI  $         73.22  $       134.10 83%             1,708
CHE  $         75.95  $       242.41 219%             1,356
CRUS  $         20.43  $         52.38 156%             1,304
CSCO  $         21.74  $         38.55 77%         119,661
COH  $         54.24  $         44.38 -18%           15,813
CRTX  $            9.49  $            9.48 0%                 252
DLX  $         51.10  $         76.01 49%             2,625
DHX  $            7.25  $            1.90 -74%                 418
EBIX  $         14.43  $         79.70 452%                 566
EGL  $         33.40  $         39.36 18%                 578
GME  $         47.68  $         18.29 -62%             5,725
GTIV  $         12.41  $         17.25 39%                 392
GNI  $         43.87  $            8.10 -82%                 105
HLF  $         78.35  $         69.59 -11%             7,893
IQNT  $         11.07  $         23.00 108%                 366
ESI  $         33.58  $                -   -100%                 778
LPS  $         37.38  $         34.00 -9%             3,192
LQDT  $         22.66  $            4.75 -79%                 694
LO  $         48.55  $         77.27 59%           18,697
MSFT  $         36.41  $         85.51 135%         311,222
MYGN  $         20.98  $         34.23 63%             1,789
NATR  $         15.21  $         14.00 -8%                 281
NOC  $       112.18  $       303.78 171%           25,495
PDLI  $            7.89  $            2.91 -63%             1,436
PFMT  $         10.30  $            1.64 -84%                 506
PETS  $         15.80  $         45.64 189%                 333
PRSC  $         25.72  $         58.64 128%                 343
QCOR  $         53.77  $         93.00 73%             3,294
RTN  $         89.03  $       187.31 110%           28,890
RAI  $         47.78  $       118.87 149%           26,932
RPXC  $         16.90  $         13.74 -19%                 923
SAIC  $         32.17  $         77.31 140%             1,589
SWHC  $         13.49  $         13.00 -4%                 753
STRA  $         34.47  $         92.59 169%                 381
RGR  $         71.03  $         55.20 -22%             1,397
UIS  $         33.57  $            8.30 -75%             1,475
UNTD  $         13.76  $         11.00 -20%                 182
SPOK  $         14.04  $         15.95 14%                 316
USNA  $         75.58  $       149.70 98%             1,083
VCI  $         34.25  $         24.76 -28%             1,319
VGR  $         14.48  $         22.34 54%             1,558
WTW  $         32.93  $         50.52 53%             1,874
53%

So with reinvestment of dead money and "normal dividends" I think this approach is now bumping against 60% for the 4 years.  So a beat (by a slight amount) of Russell 3000.



No comments: