Flashback

Flashback

Well, it is a very very cold New Year's Eve.  I took a walk at about 11 this morning and it was 12 degrees.  Now at 3 pm it is 8 degrees.  I have a nice fire going, watching some meaningless NFL games and thought I'd do a flashback.

Let us take a look at some of my expired MFI Select Portfolios and see how the stocks have fared since then.  I have outperformed with those picks... but would the outperformance have continued?  I have my doubts... but let's flashback!

First portfolio. August 2012:

8/15/12 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
DLB	$34.43	$33.04	$4.00	7.6%	22.1%
KFY	$13.98	$18.95	$0.00	35.6%	22.1%
MSFT	$30.19	$31.92	$0.92	8.8%	22.1%
NSU	$3.62	$3.33	$0.12	-4.6%	22.1%
UIS	$19.96	$24.52	$0.00	22.8%	22.1%
Totals				14.1%	22.1%

That was how the portfolio ended in August 2013.  Now let us look from 2013 to current:

8/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
DLB	$33.04	$62.00	$1.66	92.7%	48.8%
KFY	$18.95	$41.38	$1.20	124.7%	48.8%
MSFT	$31.92	$85.54	$5.61	185.6%	48.8%
NSU	$3.33	$2.41	$0.72	-6.0%	48.8%
UIS	$24.52	$8.15	$0.00	-66.8%	48.8%
Totals				66.0%	48.8%

Wow, pretty impressive. Still a solid win.

Now November 2013. Here is the Portfolio that started Nov 2012:

11/15/12 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$537.62	$527.28	$8.75	-0.3%	36.7%
ABC	$40.21	$69.23	$0.86	74.3%	36.7%
LPS	$23.89	$34.26	$0.40	45.1%	36.7%
VIAB	$49.12	$80.94	$1.15	67.1%	36.7%
WU	$12.77	$16.40	$0.50	32.3%	36.7%
Totals				43.7%	36.7%

Now let's look since 11/13 (I will withhold LPS as they were bought):

11/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$75.33	$169.23	$7.28	134.3%	52.5%
ABC	$69.23	$91.82	$4.80	39.6%	52.5%
LPS	n/a	n/a	n/a		n/a
VIAB	$80.94	$30.81	$5.00	-55.8%	52.5%
WU	$16.40	$19.01	$2.55	31.5%	52.5%
Totals				37.4%	52.5%

The VIAB stinker just too much to overcome.

Now February 2013-14

2/1/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$450.60	$500.66	$8.75	13.1%	21.1%
GA	$6.10	$11.01	$0.65	91.2%	21.1%
STRZA	$16.06	$27.98	$0.00	74.2%	21.1%
CA	$25.07	$32.08	$1.00	32.0%	21.1%
NUS	$41.94	$116.59	$1.20	180.8%	21.1%
Totals				78.3%	21.1%

That was a great tranche.  GA was bought not long thereafter, so I will exclude.

2/1/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$71.52	$169.23	$8.75	148.8%	52.7%
STRZA	$27.98	$35.52	$0.00	26.9%	52.7%
CA	$32.08	$33.28	$3.50	14.7%	52.7%
NUS	$116.59	$68.23	$4.76	-37.4%	52.7%
Totals				38.3%	52.7%

Once again, a stinker is enough to drag down results.

Now May 2013-14:

5/6/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
KLIC	$11.40	$14.44	$0.00	26.7%	18.9%
CYOU	$29.24	$28.02	$0.00	-4.2%	18.9%
RDA	$9.74	$16.79	$0.10	73.5%	18.9%
NVDA	$13.85	$18.43	$0.32	35.4%	18.9%
CF	$183.97	$243.22	$2.80	33.7%	18.9%
Totals				33.0%	18.9%

Well, this one will be terrific with NVDA.  I will drop RDA as they were bought.

5/6/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
KLIC	$14.44	$24.35	$0.00	68.6%	45.4%
CYOU	$28.02	$36.43	$0.00	30.0%	45.4%
NVDA	$18.43	$193.50	$1.61	958.7%	45.4%
CF	$48.64	$42.54	$4.20	-3.9%	45.4%
Totals				263.3%	45.4%

Well, NVDA did help.  So first year flashback in total:

Good Guys 101.3% Russell 3000: 49.9%.

Now let us look at next 4 (then I'll quit).

8/15/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CF	$187.26	$247.43	$4.50	34.5%	19.4%
FLR	$66.06	$73.03	$0.53	11.4%	19.4%
AGX	$15.60	$36.71	$0.75	140.1%	19.4%
KLIC	$11.29	$14.26	$0.00	26.3%	19.4%
RPXC	$15.92	$15.09	$0.00	-5.2%	19.4%
Totals				41.4%	19.4%

And then running to current:

8/15/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CF	$49.49	$42.54	$3.90	-6.2%	41.7%
FLR	$73.03	$51.65	$2.94	-25.2%	41.7%
AGX	$36.71	$45.00	$3.40	31.8%	41.7%
KLIC	$14.26	$24.35	$0.00	70.8%	41.7%
RPXC	$15.09	$13.44	$0.00	-10.9%	41.7%
Totals				12.1%	41.7%

Hmm, we get stomped. No NVDA to rescue us.

11/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$17.22	$19.21	$0.00	11.6%	14.5%
ATVI	$17.71	$20.10	$0.20	14.6%	14.5%
GA	$9.04	$11.90	$0.23	34.2%	14.5%
RPXC	$17.04	$13.91	$0.00	-18.4%	14.5%
SYNA	$48.01	$61.90	$0.00	28.9%	14.5%
Totals				14.2%	14.5%

Again, I'll drop GA. Here is going forward

11/15/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$19.21	$25.05	$0.00	30.4%	35.9%
ATVI	$20.10	$63.32	$0.79	219.0%	35.9%
RPXC	$13.91	$13.44	$0.00	-3.4%	35.9%
SYNA	$61.90	$39.44	$0.00	-36.3%	35.9%
Totals				52.4%	35.9%

Activision saves the day!

Two to go. February 2014-15

2/1/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
ATVI	$17.13	$20.90	$0.20	23.1%	12.9%
KLAC	$61.47	$61.47	$18.40	29.9%	12.9%
RPXC	$16.22	$12.35	$0.00	-23.9%	12.9%
SNDK	$69.55	$75.91	$0.83	10.3%	12.9%
WNR	$39.11	$37.13	$3.04	2.7%	12.9%
Totals				8.5%	12.9%

And rolling it forward:

2/1/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
ATVI	$20.90	$63.32	$0.56	205.7%	32.4%
KLAC	$61.47	$105.07	$7.28	82.8%	32.4%
RPXC	$12.35	$13.44	$0.00	8.8%	32.4%
SNDK	$75.91	$76.18	$2.40	3.5%	32.4%
WNR	$37.13	$36.18	$4.56	9.7%	32.4%
Totals				62.1%	32.4%

ATVI again!  One last tranche to go in our flashback.

5/6/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$19.57	$23.27	$0.00	18.9%	12.9%
CA	$29.54	$31.41	$1.00	9.7%	12.9%
CSCO	$22.79	$28.89	$0.78	30.2%	12.9%
NSR	$25.82	$30.69	$0.00	18.9%	12.9%
RCII	$28.78	$31.77	$0.94	13.7%	12.9%
Totals				18.3%	12.9%

Ooh, this one won't be pretty.

5/6/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$23.27	$25.05	$0.00	7.6%	32.0%
CA	$31.41	$33.28	$2.50	13.9%	32.0%
CSCO	$28.89	$38.30	$3.08	43.2%	32.0%
NSR	$30.69	$33.50	$0.00	9.2%	32.0%
RCII	$31.77	$11.10	$1.12	-61.5%	32.0%
Totals				2.5%	32.0%

Yes, RCII has not fared well.  So in summary for 2nd set.

Good Guys: 32.3%

Russell 3000:  35.5%

Pretty close, but edged out.