Well, a year has passed on the real money MFI "Formula" portfolio. As a reminder, I have 4 tranches of 5 stocks apiece that pick stocks from the official MFI website. I started this in October 2014.
My approach is pure formula. I take the top 50 stocks from the official screen (over $100m market cap). I then take the 34 largest stocks by market cap. Then I filter further by picking stocks with a dividend yield of 2.4% or greater.
As I have mentioned before, this approach works very well in backtests. However, as is often the case, it has been just ok since I started it with real money. But I do have faith in the approach. And as I have been doing all year, I will be increasing my stake per stock by about 35%.
Here is how all my tranches have done since 10/1/14:
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $26.21 | $0.50 | 13.5% | -0.6% |
| BKE | $45.55 | $36.97 | $3.68 | -10.8% | -0.6% |
| CA | $27.87 | $27.30 | $1.00 | 1.5% | -0.6% |
| GME | $41.70 | $41.21 | $1.41 | 2.2% | -0.6% |
| NUS | $44.56 | $41.28 | $1.40 | -4.2% | -0.6% |
| Totals | 0.5% | -0.6% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $29.26 | $1.00 | -1.8% | -0.3% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $27.70 | $0.82 | 0.6% | -0.3% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $60.08 | $1.10 | 75.7% | -0.3% |
| GME | $34.21 | $28.71 | $1.44 | -11.9% | -0.3% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $17.78 | $0.60 | -7.5% | -0.3% |
| Totals | 11.0% | -0.3% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $26.33 | $0.80 | -15.2% | -1.1% |
| GME | $37.69 | $32.12 | $1.45 | -10.9% | -1.1% |
| KING | $15.85 | $18.00 | $0.00 | 13.6% | -1.1% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.24 | $0.16 | -0.8% | -1.1% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $25.40 | $0.00 | 12.1% | -1.1% |
| Totals | -0.2% | -1.1% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $25.51 | $1.96 | -40.9% | -0.3% |
| CA | $29.34 | $31.53 | $1.01 | 10.9% | -0.3% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $49.29 | $1.39 | 14.1% | -0.3% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $53.45 | $1.97 | -12.0% | -0.3% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $40.81 | $1.60 | -34.5% | -0.3% |
| Totals | -12.5% | -0.3% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $24.03 | $1.98 | -29.4% | 13.6% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $16.14 | $0.60 | -23.8% | 13.6% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $68.50 | $2.02 | 31.9% | 13.6% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $31.72 | $0.94 | 23.9% | 13.6% |
| CA | $27.30 | $33.08 | $1.01 | 24.9% | 13.6% |
| Totals | 5.5% | 13.6% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $42.67 | $1.57 | 46.0% | 12.1% |
| GME | $28.34 | $25.45 | $1.48 | -5.0% | 12.1% |
| ILG | $15.89 | $18.17 | $0.48 | 17.4% | 12.1% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $19.14 | $2.75 | -1.5% | 12.1% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $35.40 | $1.20 | -10.6% | 12.1% |
| Totals | 9.3% | 12.1% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $37.55 | $0.44 | -25.9% | 18.0% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $17.88 | $0.51 | 51.9% | 18.0% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $19.35 | $0.76 | 31.9% | 18.0% |
| ILG | $13.85 | $20.96 | $0.51 | 55.0% | 18.0% |
| XPER | $30.79 | $33.95 | $0.80 | 12.9% | 18.0% |
| Totals | 25.2% | 18.0% | |||
| 7/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| ILG | $16.76 | $27.49 | $0.54 | 67.2% | 16.8% |
| VIAB | $44.00 | $33.57 | $0.80 | -21.9% | 16.8% |
| CPLA | $53.22 | $85.60 | $1.62 | 63.9% | 16.8% |
| HRB | $23.62 | $30.91 | $0.90 | 34.7% | 16.8% |
| PBI | $17.69 | $15.10 | $0.75 | -10.4% | 16.8% |
| Totals | 26.7% | 16.8% | |||
| 10/3/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CPLA | $58.15 | $70.15 | $1.64 | 23.5% | 18.8% |
| LDOS | $43.01 | $59.22 | $1.28 | 40.7% | 18.8% |
| GME | $27.70 | $20.66 | $1.51 | -20.0% | 18.8% |
| PBI | $18.15 | $14.01 | $0.75 | -18.7% | 18.8% |
| CSCO | $31.72 | $33.63 | $1.10 | 9.5% | 18.8% |
| Totals | 7.0% | 18.8% |
You'll note the most recent tranche was up overall by 7.0%, losing by a substantial margin. The four stocks I did not pick (based on random # generator) were down (TGNA and BKE down while HPQ and HRB were up).
My New Stocks
;
I ran the MFI screen and my filters this afternoon. Only 10 stocks of the 50 were left after the screen:
| Number | Ticker | Market Cap | Price | Dividend | Yield |
| 1 | HRB | 5,536 | 26.48 | 0.96 | 3.6% |
| 2 | CSCO | 167,578 | 33.63 | 1.16 | 3.4% |
| 3 | CJREF | 2,121 | 10.40 | 0.86 | 8.3% |
| 4 | DIN | 773 | 42.98 | 3.88 | 9.0% |
| 5 | GME | 2,093 | 20.66 | 1.52 | 7.4% |
| 6 | GILD | 105,812 | 81.02 | 2.08 | 2.6% |
| 7 | HPQ | 33,333 | 19.96 | 0.53 | 2.7% |
| 8 | IPG | 8,176 | 20.79 | 0.72 | 3.5% |
| 9 | OMC | 17,110 | 74.07 | 2.20 | 3.0% |
| 10 | VIAB | 11,203 | 27.84 | 0.80 | 2.9% |
My rules do allow me to throw out a single stock... I am tempted by GME, but I have decided to keep them in the mix. Now let me run my random number generator.
| Random # | Stock |
| 5 | GME |
| 9 | OMC |
| 6 | GILD |
| 7 | HPQ |
| 4 | DIN |
Ok, Mr Random wanted me to pick GME. It was a 20% belly-flop in portfolio that just wrapped up. More importantly, this will vault HPQ into one of my largest positions. Besides that, with DIN I guess I'll be taking the wife to Applebees and IHOP more!
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