Greetings from South Boston! Visiting our daughter at Northeastern Parents Weekend. Also, Happy upcoming halloween to my readers.
You have found your way to the MFI Diary. This is a blog following the investment approach described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats The Market. I have been writing this blog and following his investment approach since early 2006.
I did create a guide recently for new readers to my blog that point you to some key/interesting posts. I encourage you to give it a whirl (). Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a guy with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor. You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.
Any opinions you read are my own unless they end up being really bad.
The Past Week
This was just a bad week for me. It seemed every day I had a stock taking a dive due to earnings, macro issues or stupidity. It started with SHIP, trading at $1.20 announcing a secondary around 90 cents. CA, a very large holding for me had disappointing earnings. Many of my biotech type firms (including GILD and AMGN) dropped. And to add insult to injury, stocks I had recently sold had huge pops - BAC warrants and FIX both had great weeks. Oh well. Here is my YTD and QTR table:
| Component | YTD | 4th Q |
| Overall | +13.02% | -0.43% |
| MFI Select | +23.61% | -0.49% |
| MFI Formula | +12.39% | +2.58% |
| Miscellaneous | +6.30% | -0.65% |
| Dividend | +12.15% | -1.47% |
| R3K | +16.30% | +2.35% |
| MFI Index | +3.37% | -0.87% |
| GARIX | +6.17% | +1.22% |
So you can see I am down 43 basis points overall now for the quarter. Just a week ago that was +1.68%, so I was down over 2% on the week. It is a marathon, not a sprint - but never fun to broadly underperform the market.
Here are MFI stocks in my portfolio for the week. Let us see if the keen eyed reader can spot the problem stocks.
| Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| SYNT | 24.25 | 22.82 | - | -5.9% |
| HPQ | 22.02 | 21.50 | - | -2.4% |
| GILD | 81.21 | 77.07 | - | -5.1% |
| CSCO | 34.25 | 34.43 | - | 0.5% |
| OMC | 73.69 | 68.56 | - | -7.0% |
| GME | 20.13 | 19.34 | - | -3.9% |
| CA | 34.10 | 32.87 | - | -3.6% |
| DIN | 45.83 | 48.39 | - | 5.6% |
| TGNA | 21.55 | 20.55 | - | -4.7% |
| BKE | 16.60 | 17.25 | - | 3.9% |
| RGR | 52.45 | 51.50 | - | -1.8% |
| Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| ATHM | 59.14 | 56.95 | - | -3.7% |
| RHI | 51.65 | 52.84 | - | 2.3% |
| YY | 93.12 | 85.34 | - | -8.4% |
| ICHR | 33.86 | 31.08 | - | -8.2% |
| AKRX | 33.28 | 32.52 | - | -2.3% |
| AMGN | 182.96 | 175.28 | - | -4.2% |
| SIMO | 51.78 | 47.26 | - | -8.7% |
| MPAA | 29.73 | 29.07 | - | -2.2% |
| CA | 34.10 | 32.87 | - | -3.6% |
| WNC | 22.76 | 22.42 | - | -1.5% |
| KLAC | 108.34 | 108.07 | - | -0.2% |
| MD | 44.51 | 44.28 | - | -0.5% |
| WSTC | 23.50 | 23.50 | - | 0.0% |
| GHC | 556.20 | 575.20 | - | 3.4% |
| QCOM | 52.02 | 54.57 | - | 4.9% |
| MSGN | 21.10 | 19.70 | - | -6.6% |
| RGR | 52.45 | 51.50 | - | -1.8% |
| TGNA | 21.55 | 20.55 | -4.7% | |
| TIME | 12.15 | 11.95 | -1.6% |
Pretty bad.
MFI Select
This is my one of two real life, real money portfolios using MFI. It was started in August 2012 when I rebooted MFI after a year hiatus. I am a bit short on time this morning, so pretty much just tables today.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
| 9/1/2016 | 67.04% | 222,481 | 155,446 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| 11/1/2016 | 41.86% | 195,726 | 153,863 |
| 12/1/2016 | 45.92% | 202,775 | 156,859 |
| 1/1/2017 | 45.60% | 209,503 | 163,936 |
| 2/1/2017 | 45.20% | 212,330 | 167,146 |
| 3/1/2017 | 48.80% | 222,583 | 173,829 |
| 4/1/2017 | 55.70% | 229,473 | 173,735 |
| 5/1/2017 | 55.80% | 231,497 | 175,712 |
| 6/1/2017 | 53.40% | 230,599 | 177,203 |
| 7/1/2017 | 60.28% | 239,060 | 178,782 |
| 8/1/2017 | 57.76% | 239,924 | 182,163 |
| 9/1/2017 | 68.85% | 251,265 | 182,419 |
| 10/1/2017 | 75.60% | 262,489 | 186,886 |
| Current | 68.97% | 260,254 | 191,284 |
Just like my other table showed, October is becoming a bit of a struggle.
| 11/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MPAA | $26.55 | $29.07 | $0.00 | 9.5% | 20.5% |
| ATHM | $22.61 | $56.95 | $0.00 | 151.9% | 20.5% |
| AMGN | $145.14 | $175.28 | $3.15 | 22.9% | 20.5% |
| RHI | $43.23 | $52.84 | $0.94 | 24.4% | 20.5% |
| CA | $31.11 | $32.87 | $0.77 | 8.1% | 20.5% |
| Totals | 43.4% | 20.5% | |||
| 2/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AKRX | $19.10 | $32.52 | $0.00 | 70.3% | 14.2% |
| YY | $41.08 | $85.34 | $0.00 | 107.7% | 14.2% |
| KLAC | $85.11 | $108.07 | $1.67 | 28.9% | 14.2% |
| WNC | $17.65 | $22.42 | $0.18 | 28.0% | 14.2% |
| RGR | $52.75 | $51.50 | $1.15 | -0.2% | 14.2% |
| Totals | 47.0% | 14.2% | |||
| 5/6/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| WSTC | $24.15 | $23.50 | $0.00 | -2.7% | 8.4% |
| TGNA | $25.75 | $20.55 | $0.14 | -19.7% | 8.4% |
| TIME | $15.05 | $11.95 | $0.04 | -20.3% | 8.4% |
| MSGN | $23.55 | $19.70 | $0.00 | -16.3% | 8.4% |
| QCOM | $54.93 | $54.57 | $1.14 | 1.4% | 8.4% |
| Totals | -11.5% | 8.4% | |||
| 8/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| GHC | $591.10 | $575.20 | $1.27 | -2.5% | 5.5% |
| ICHR | $19.80 | $31.08 | $0.00 | 57.0% | 5.5% |
| MD | $43.00 | $44.28 | $0.00 | 3.0% | 5.5% |
| SIMO | $43.05 | $47.26 | $0.00 | 9.8% | 5.5% |
| RHI | $44.15 | $52.84 | $0.24 | 20.2% | 5.5% |
| Totals | 17.5% | 5.5% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 17.5% | 43.4% | 47.0% | -11.5% | 23.8% |
| Previous Tranche | -0.1% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 19.1% | 15.3% |
| Tranche -2 | 2.8% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 8.2% |
| Tranche -3 | 11.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 13.0% |
| Tranche -4 | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.1% |
| Tranche -5 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 116.6% | 330.8% | 169.7% | 24.0% | 160.3% |
| Current Balance | 54,141 | 107,706 | 67,418 | 30,988 | 260,254 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 5.5% | 20.5% | 14.2% | 8.4% | 12.2% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 102.0% | 105.4% | 84.8% | 72.9% | 91.3% |
| R3K Balance | 50,503 | 51,353 | 46,202 | 43,226 | 191,284 |
| Annualized IRR | 16.0% | 34.3% | 23.3% | 4.9% | 19.6% |
MFI Formula
This is my 2nd real money MFI approach, where I use a formula and random # generator to pick my stocks.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
| 9/1/2016 | -0.34% | 106,704 | 107,048 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| 11/1/2016 | 0.42% | 105,421 | 105,003 |
| 12/1/2016 | 1.62% | 110,705 | 109,088 |
| 1/1/2017 | 1.57% | 113,406 | 111,832 |
| 2/1/2017 | 1.32% | 114,809 | 113,486 |
| 3/1/2017 | -5.09% | 112,930 | 118,024 |
| 4/1/2017 | -1.86% | 116,227 | 118,091 |
| 5/1/2017 | 1.11% | 120,403 | 119,296 |
| 6/1/2017 | -2.65% | 117,824 | 120,472 |
| 7/1/2017 | -2.40% | 119,144 | 121,545 |
| 8/1/2017 | -1.96% | 121,873 | 123,828 |
| 9/1/2017 | -6.09% | 117,879 | 123,973 |
| 10/1/2017 | -2.56% | 124,448 | 127,007 |
| Current | -2.78% | 127,231 | 130,009 |
Gad, just last week this one had broken into the lead. Now trailing by 2.78 percentage points again. Frustrating.
| 12/30/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| GILD | $71.69 | $77.07 | $1.56 | 9.7% | 16.2% |
| HPQ | $15.00 | $21.50 | $0.53 | 46.9% | 16.2% |
| TGNA | $21.33 | $20.55 | $0.28 | -2.4% | 16.2% |
| CA | $31.99 | $32.87 | $0.77 | 5.1% | 16.2% |
| SYNT | $19.79 | $22.82 | $0.00 | 15.3% | 16.2% |
| Totals | 14.9% | 16.2% | |||
| 4/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $18.45 | $17.25 | $0.75 | -2.4% | 10.1% |
| CSCO | $33.76 | $34.43 | $0.87 | 4.6% | 10.1% |
| GILD | $67.50 | $77.07 | $1.04 | 15.7% | 10.1% |
| OMC | $85.53 | $68.56 | $1.10 | -18.6% | 10.1% |
| SYNT | $16.76 | $22.82 | $0.00 | 36.1% | 10.1% |
| Totals | 7.1% | 10.1% | |||
| 7/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $30.98 | $34.43 | $0.29 | 12.1% | 6.9% |
| GME | $20.95 | $19.34 | $0.38 | -5.9% | 6.9% |
| HPQ | $17.60 | $21.50 | $0.13 | 22.9% | 6.9% |
| RGR | $60.70 | $51.50 | $0.23 | -14.8% | 6.9% |
| SYNT | $16.21 | $22.82 | $0.00 | 40.8% | 6.9% |
| Totals | 11.0% | 6.9% | |||
| 10/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DIN | $43.14 | $48.39 | $0.00 | 12.2% | 2.4% |
| GILD | $82.85 | $77.07 | $0.00 | -7.0% | 2.4% |
| GME | $20.50 | $19.34 | $0.00 | -5.7% | 2.4% |
| HPQ | $20.22 | $21.50 | $0.00 | 6.3% | 2.4% |
| OMC | $74.80 | $68.56 | $0.00 | -8.3% | 2.4% |
| Totals | -0.5% | 2.4% | |||
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | -0.5% | 14.9% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 8.1% |
| Previous Tranche | 7.0% | 9.3% | 25.2% | 26.7% | 16.5% |
| Tranche -2 | 5.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | 1.0% |
| Tranche -3 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 12.8% | 39.4% | 33.7% | 23.1% | 27.3% |
| Current Balance | 281,894 | 348,429 | 334,504 | 307,483 | 1,272,310 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 2.4% | 16.2% | 10.1% | 6.9% | 8.9% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 37.3% | 29.9% | 28.5% | 24.5% | 30.1% |
| R3K Balance | 343,048 | 324,548 | 321,547 | 310,936 | 1,300,079 |
| Annualized IRR | 4.0% | 12.5% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% |
Dividends and Misc
I do have two portfolios that are not MFI centric. One is dividend stocks/securities, which I try to buy and hold for long term with a focus on income. Then I also have miscellaneous holdings, which are typically riskier and I tend to trade a bit more. My experience has been more trading does not results in better returns. Rather picking good securities and holding them works best for me.
| Dividend Stocks | Start | Current | Divvy | Overall Pct Gain | Weekly Pct Gain | 9/30/17 Price | Yield |
| FDEU | 18.40 | 18.91 | 0.57 | 5.9% | -0.6% | 19.42 | 7.7% |
| EVG | 14.46 | 14.18 | 0.18 | -0.7% | -0.4% | 14.24 | 6.5% |
| PSXP | 47.39 | 51.32 | 1.03 | 10.5% | 0.7% | 52.56 | 5.0% |
| KCLI | 49.31 | 49.35 | 0.22 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 49.75 | 2.2% |
| LADR | 13.01 | 13.57 | 0.30 | 6.6% | -1.6% | 13.78 | 8.8% |
| ISBC | 13.25 | 14.06 | 0.06 | 6.6% | 1.6% | 13.64 | 2.6% |
| NS | 41.04 | 34.40 | - | -16.2% | -1.1% | 40.59 | 12.7% |
| RLJ-PA | 28.45 | 28.20 | 0.49 | 0.8% | -1.1% | 27.82 | 7.0% |
| JQC | 8.20 | 8.38 | 1.54 | 21.0% | -0.2% | 8.49 | 6.8% |
| TK | 5.79 | 8.26 | 0.05 | 43.5% | -5.4% | 8.93 | 2.7% |
| DSL | 19.47 | 20.82 | 1.50 | 14.7% | -1.3% | 21.25 | 8.6% |
| OIBAX | 5.85 | 5.88 | 0.42 | 7.6% | -1.0% | 5.95 | 4.4% |
| OCSI | 8.68 | 8.92 | 0.19 | 5.0% | -1.3% | 8.80 | 8.5% |
| RILY | 15.58 | 16.70 | 0.13 | 8.1% | 0.9% | 17.05 | 1.6% |
| SBRA | 23.13 | 20.61 | 0.52 | -8.7% | -3.3% | 21.94 | 7.0% |
| TGONF | 11.04 | 12.80 | 1.61 | 30.6% | -0.2% | 12.80 | 5.5% |
| VTIBX | 10.92 | 10.94 | 0.02 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 10.89 | 1.1% |
| GLDI | 9.29 | 8.92 | 0.19 | -1.9% | -0.7% | 9.07 | 12.2% |
| CPLP | 3.54 | 3.44 | - | -2.8% | -3.6% | 3.50 | 9.3% |
| NRZ | 16.22 | 17.89 | 0.88 | 15.7% | 2.3% | 16.73 | 11.2% |
| DHF | 3.34 | 3.46 | 0.14 | 7.7% | -0.9% | 3.53 | 8.2% |
| BKE | 14.15 | 17.25 | 0.25 | 23.7% | 3.9% | 16.85 | 5.8% |
| CA | 34.79 | 32.87 | 0.26 | -4.8% | -3.6% | 17.85 | 3.1% |
| O | 25.38 | 53.93 | 20.66 | 193.9% | -2.9% | 57.19 | 4.7% |
| Totals | 7.2% | -0.8% | 6.4% |
You can see it was a bad week here as well, although -0.8% feels good compared to the 2% drops I saw elsewhere.
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