Saturday, March 30, 2019

MFI Diary - Monthly Update: March Sucked

MFI Diary - Monthly Update: March Sucked

As I alluded in MFI Getting Toasted, it was rough sledding in March.  Most of it was just smaller cap stocks were not in favor.  The Russell 2000 was down 2% and the Russell 2000 Value was down 3%.

It does get depressing.  I almost didn't want to write this post.  But year-to-date, things still look ok, although I have frittered away my lead.  So not a disaster, just disappointing.

Welcome to the not-quite-famous MFI Diary.  This is a diary/blog that I have been maintaining since early 2006 tracking my performance and thoughts about Magic Formula Investing.  That, of course, is an investing approach from The Little Book That Beats The Markets by Joel Greenblatt.

Once a month, I do a bit of a post mortem/review of how things went in my MFI portfolios and sometimes offer some thoughts on my other investments.  Keep in mind, I am not an investment advisor, just a retired actuary who is reasonable proficient with spreadsheets.  So please do your own due diligence and if you ever think I'm smart, just read my December review.

Monthly Overview

While results were subpar, at least the sun has come out here in Southern New England.  The snow has melted. Life is good.  Here is table showing the month:


 Component   YTD   Month Change 
 Overall  +13.7% -1.0%
 MFI Select  +14.6% -4.9%
 MFI Formula  +12.0% -2.0%
 MFI Combined  +13.3% -3.3%
 Non MFI  +14.0% +0.5%
 Dividend Index  +11.6% +2.4%
 R3K Index  +13.9% +0.8%
 Blended Index  +13.1% +1.4%
 MFI Index  +7.8% -5.6%
 GARIX  +5.6% +0.1%


So my MFI Combined was down 3.3% (pretty much like Russell 2000 Value).  MFI Index (50 stocks from official list) were down an appalling 5.6%.  GAIRX, an MFI mutual fund was flat and IWV was up 0.8%.  Interestingly, the dividend index was best performer, up 2.4%.  So with the spectre of higher future interest rates receding, bonds, reits, preferreds, utes etc are back in vogue.

Here are securities in my dividend index (from Barrons):


 Ticker  12/30/2018  Current   YTD Change   Monthly Change 
 AMLP              8.73             10.03 17.2% 2.9%
 NML              6.69               7.96 21.4% 4.5%
 EPD           24.59             29.10 20.0% 4.8%
 KMI           15.38             20.01 33.8% 1.4%
 FDD           11.94             12.83 8.7% -0.5%
 VGK           48.62             53.61 11.0% -0.5%
 NVS           85.81             96.14 15.2% 5.2%
 NOBL           60.54             67.78 12.5% 1.3%
 VYM           77.99             85.66 10.6% -0.6%
 MRK           76.41             83.17 9.5% 1.9%
 PEP         110.48          122.55 11.7% 5.5%
 VNQ           74.57             86.91 17.9% 3.8%
 RQI           10.36             12.80 25.9% 5.1%
 TCO           45.49             52.88 17.6% 2.8%
 SLG           79.08             89.92 14.7% -0.2%
 T           28.54             31.36 11.7% 1.8%
 VZ           56.22             59.13 6.2% 3.8%
 CHL           48.00             50.99 6.2% -4.0%
 DSU              9.77             10.72 11.8% -0.4%
 HIO              4.38               4.83 12.3% 0.0%
 MUB         109.04          111.19 2.5% 1.5%
 PRHYX              6.16               6.48 6.2% 0.3%
 NEA           12.31             13.36 10.0% 2.2%
 JNK           33.59             35.97 8.6% 1.1%
 VWITX           13.91             14.18 2.6% 1.1%
 PHMIX              8.90               9.15 3.9% 1.9%
 UTG           29.43             33.68 16.1% 4.3%
 XLU           52.92             58.17 10.7% 1.8%
 DUK           86.30             90.00 5.3% 0.5%
 EIX           56.77             61.92 10.0% 1.0%
 PFF           34.23             36.55 8.4% 0.7%
 JPC              8.34               9.53 16.6% 2.0%
 TIP         109.51          113.07 3.8% 2.2%
 SHY           83.62             84.12 0.9% 0.7%
 TLT         121.51          126.44 4.7% 6.6%


Wow, TLT up 6.6%. May have to double check that as it is very strong.  Wow, that is right. Seems to be saying there is some fear out there.

Here are the 50 stocks from MFI Index:

 Stock   Start   Current   YTD Change   Last Month 
   ACOR        15.58             13.29 -14.7% -11.9%
   AEIS        42.93             49.68 15.7% -2.9%
   ALSN        43.91             45.07 2.6% -7.9%
   AMAT        32.74             39.87 21.8% 3.4%
   AGX        37.84             50.20 32.7% 7.8%
   AKG          0.64                0.62 -2.8% -8.3%
   HRB        25.37             24.19 -4.7% 0.2%
   BPT        21.64             27.60 27.5% 2.8%
   CECO        11.42             16.52 44.7% -1.5%
   CELG        64.09             94.34 47.2% 9.7%
   CJREF          3.50                4.49 28.2% -1.9%
   DLX        38.44             43.97 14.4% -4.8%
   DXC        53.17             64.50 21.3% -4.1%
   ESIO        29.96             29.99 0.1% 0.0%
   FTSI          7.11             10.00 40.6% -2.9%
   GME        12.62             10.54 -16.5% -10.3%
   GILD        62.55             65.66 5.0% -0.5%
   EAF        11.44             12.88 12.5% -9.5%
   HSII        31.19             38.48 23.4% -11.1%
   HPQ        20.46             19.59 -4.3% -0.1%
   IDT          6.19                6.64 7.3% 8.7%
   IMMR          8.96                8.43 -5.9% -5.3%
   INVA        17.45             14.03 -19.6% -8.5%
   IDCC        66.43             66.33 -0.2% -2.6%
   IPG        20.63             21.29 3.2% -8.0%
   KLAC        89.49           120.16 34.3% 3.8%
   LRCX      136.17           180.11 32.3% 1.9%
   LGORF          2.07                1.59 -23.2% -9.1%
   LTRPA        15.89             14.19 -10.7% -5.0%
   TUSK        17.98             16.65 -7.4% -29.1%
   MCFT        18.70             22.57 20.7% -8.1%
   MSB        23.69             30.68 29.5% 0.0%
   MSGN        23.56             21.75 -7.7% -10.1%
   NHTC        18.49             13.20 -28.6% 1.4%
   NKTR        32.87             33.60 2.2% -11.9%
   EGOV        12.48             17.17 37.6% 0.7%
   OMC        73.24             73.64 0.5% -4.0%
   PETS        23.26             23.05 -0.9% -1.4%
   STX        38.59             47.89 24.1% 3.3%
   SIGA          7.90                6.01 -23.9% -9.1%
   SP        29.54             34.12 15.5% -1.1%
   STRL        10.89             12.52 15.0% -14.8%
   TVTY        24.81             17.56 -29.2% -16.5%
   TUP        31.57             25.85 -18.1% -12.0%
   HEAR        14.27             11.36 -20.4% -24.7%
   UIS        11.63             11.67 0.3% -14.6%
   UTHR      108.90           117.37 7.8% -7.5%
   VEC        21.58             26.59 23.2% -6.1%
   VIAB        25.70             28.27 10.0% -4.0%
   WDC        36.97             48.06 30.0% -7.0%

10 of the 50 names dropped 10% or more in the month.  And no real winners to speak of.  I find this a bit ominous when combined with the movement in treasuries.  Kind of like when at the beach and water recedes quickly... that probably means a tsunami is coming.  My experience is small caps are often the canary in the coal mine.

MFI Select

I am going to run through this quickly as my heart isn't really in it this month.  Most readers should know the drill.  If not, page back a month.


5/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CAAP  $12.19 $8.27 $0.00 -32.2% 8.7%
 TGNA  $10.51 $14.10 $0.28 36.9% 8.7%
 DISCA  $23.85 $27.02 $0.00 13.3% 8.7%
 FTSI  $19.39 $10.00 $0.00 -48.4% 8.7%
 ICHR  $21.96 $22.58 $0.00 2.8% 8.7%
 Totals  -5.5% 8.7%
8/15/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $39.45 $49.95 $0.50 27.9% 0.0%
 AMCX  $60.97 $56.76 $0.00 -6.9% 0.0%
 CJREF  $3.08 $4.43 $0.12 47.7% 0.0%
 GME  $15.50 $10.16 $1.14 -27.1% 0.0%
 SGH  $31.12 $19.20 $0.00 -38.3% 0.0%
 Totals  0.6% 0.0%
11/15/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $43.15 $49.95 $0.25 16.3% 6.1%
 DXC  $62.00 $64.31 $0.19 4.0% 6.1%
 MU  $38.49 $41.33 $0.00 7.4% 6.1%
 SGH  $29.67 $19.20 $0.00 -35.3% 6.1%
 WDC  $44.92 $48.06 $1.00 9.2% 6.1%
 Totals  0.3% 6.1%
2/1/2019  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $42.18 $49.95 $0.00 18.4% 5.1%
 BBY  $58.84 $71.06 $0.50 21.6% 5.1%
 HPQ  $22.07 $19.43 $0.16 -11.2% 5.1%
 MU  $38.22 $41.33 $0.00 8.1% 5.1%
 RTN  $166.65 $182.08 $0.00 9.3% 5.1%
 VIAB  $29.40 $28.07 $0.20 -3.8% 5.1%
 WDC  $44.99 $48.06 $0.50 7.9% 5.1%
 Totals  7.2% 5.1%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000             25,000           25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  0.6% 0.3% 7.2% -5.5% 1.4%
 Previous Tranche  27.8% -0.6% -27.3% -3.6% 28.3%
 Tranche -2  -0.1% 42.6% 74.9% 19.1% 34.2%
 Tranche -3  2.8% 8.0% 10.7% -25.2% -0.9%
 Tranche -4  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 21.2%
 Tranche -5  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -6  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 34.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  137.2% 327.3% 150.1% 27.7% 160.6%
 Current Balance         59,291           106,835           62,513        31,913         260,553
 R3K Current Tranche  0.0% 6.1% 5.1% 8.7% 5.0%
 R3K Overall Gain  125.8% 131.5% 106.9% 93.4% 114.4%
 R3K Balance         56,440             57,868           51,731        48,351         214,391
 Annualized IRR  13.9% 25.6% 16.0% 4.2% 14.9%

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
1/1/2017 45.60%        209,503            163,936
4/1/2017 55.70%        229,473            173,735
7/1/2017 60.28%        239,060            178,782
10/1/2017 75.60%        262,489            186,886
1/1/2018 92.19%        291,114            198,926
4/1/2018 96.21%        293,665            197,451
7/1/2018 68.20%        273,125            204,921
10/1/2018 65.80%        284,097            218,297
1/1/2019 39.77%        228,246            188,479
4/1/2019 46.16%        260,553            214,391

 Stock   Last Month   Current   Dividend   Change 
 AGX              45.98         49.95                       -   8.6%
 WDC              50.97         48.06                       -   -5.7%
 MU              42.96         41.33                       -   -3.8%
 SGH              30.86         19.20                       -   -37.8%
 DISCA              28.39         27.02                       -   -4.8%
 TGNA              12.52         14.10                  0.07 13.2%
 BBY              60.31         71.06                  0.50 18.7%
 CJREF                4.60            4.43                  0.06 -2.5%
 RTN            185.24       182.08                       -   -1.7%
 VIAB              29.14         28.07                  0.20 -3.0%
 ICHR              21.68         22.58                       -   4.2%
 DXC              67.18         64.31                       -   -4.3%
 HPQ              23.90         19.43                  0.16 -18.0%
 AMCX              62.45         56.76                       -   -9.1%
 GME              11.64         10.16                  0.38 -9.5%
 CAAP                8.03            8.27                       -   3.0%
 FTSI              10.54         10.00                       -   -5.1%

Gad, SGH down 37% on the month.  That was a bad pick.

MFI Formula

4/3/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $166.46 $189.98 $5.28 17.3% 10.6%
 VIAB  $29.20 $28.07 $0.80 -1.1% 10.6%
 GILD  $72.71 $65.01 $2.34 -7.4% 10.6%
 TUP  $47.32 $25.58 $2.31 -41.1% 10.6%
 EGOV  $13.29 $17.09 $0.32 31.0% 10.6%
 Totals  -0.2% 10.6%
7/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.90 $4.43 $0.31 21.4% 4.8%
 GILD  $70.80 $65.01 $1.77 -5.7% 4.8%
 IPG  $22.80 $21.01 $0.66 -5.0% 4.8%
 KLAC  $102.03 $119.41 $2.25 19.2% 4.8%
 TUP  $40.09 $25.58 $1.63 -32.1% 4.8%
 Totals  -0.4% 4.8%
10/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.36 $4.43 $0.12 35.3% -2.4%
 GILD  $78.13 $65.01 $1.20 -15.3% -2.4%
 IPG  $22.80 $21.01 $0.45 -5.9% -2.4%
 PETS  $31.56 $22.78 $0.54 -26.1% -2.4%
 VIAB  $32.21 $28.07 $0.40 -11.6% -2.4%
 Totals  -4.7% -2.4%
1/2/2019  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 EGOV  $12.54 $17.09 $0.08 36.9% 15.3%
 GILD  $62.01 $65.01 $0.63 5.9% 15.3%
 IPG  $20.50 $21.01 $0.24 3.6% 15.3%
 KLAC  $90.04 $119.41 $0.75 33.5% 15.3%
 OMC  $72.74 $72.99 $0.65 1.2% 15.3%
 Totals  16.2% 15.3%
 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  -4.7% 16.2% -0.2% -0.4% 2.7%
 Previous Tranche  18.5% -4.0% 21.3% 37.3% 19.9%
 Tranche -2  7.0% 16.5% 25.2% 26.7% 18.8%
 Tranche -3  5.5% 9.3% -0.2% -12.5% 0.5%
 Tranche -4  0.5% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
 MFI Overall Gain  28.1% 57.6% 51.1% 51.7% 47.1%
 Current Balance      319,954        393,943     378,062      378,742      1,470,700
 R3K Current Tranche  -2.4% 15.3% 10.6% 4.8% 7.1%
 R3K Overall Gain  53.8% 44.3% 43.3% 43.2% 46.1%
 R3K Balance      384,120        360,753     358,465      357,585      1,460,923
 Annualized IRR  5.7% 11.3% 10.9% 11.7% 9.9%

Seem to be struggling again.  March was rugged.  April 1st tranche is officially closed.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
1/1/2017 1.57%        113,406            111,832
4/1/2017 -1.86%        116,227            118,091
7/1/2017 -2.40%        119,144            121,545
10/1/2017 -2.56%        124,448            127,007
1/1/2018 -3.63%        131,460            135,086
4/1/2018 -0.16%        133,734            133,898
7/1/2018 2.28%        141,126            138,849
10/1/2018 -0.85%        147,963            148,808
1/1/2019 3.90%        132,405            128,506
4/1/2019 0.98%        147,070            146,092

 Stock   Last Month   Current   Dividend   Change 
 GILD              65.02         65.01                  0.65 1.0%
 IPG              23.03         21.01                  0.24 -7.7%
 EGOV              17.09         17.09                       -   0.0%
 CJREF                4.57            4.43                  0.06 -1.8%
 KLAC            115.49       119.41                       -   3.4%
 OMC              75.70         72.99                  0.65 -2.7%
 VIAB              29.22         28.07                  0.20 -3.3%
 TUP              30.11         25.58                  0.27 -14.1%
 AMGN            190.08       189.98                       -   -0.1%
 PETS              23.05         22.78                       -   -1.2%

Again, you can see the struggle that was March.

Non MFI

At least my non MFI was up 1/2 a percent for the month.


 Stock  12/31/2018  Current   Dividend   Yield   Change 
 LADR              15.47         17.02                 0.34 8.0% 12.2%
 T              28.54         31.36                 0.51 6.5% 11.7%
 OXY              61.38         66.20                 0.78 4.7% 9.1%
 CTL              15.15         11.99                 0.25 9.0% -19.2%
 KCLI              37.00         35.25                 0.27 3.1% -4.0%
 GLOP-PB              20.33         24.25                 0.52 8.5% 21.8%
 CBL-PD                9.90            9.71                      -   18.9% -1.9%
 NRZ              14.21         16.91 11.8% 19.0%
 TOO-PE              17.90         19.21                 0.69 11.0% 11.2%
 NTR              47.00         52.76                 0.43 3.3% 13.2%
 TGONF              11.38         12.95                 0.18 5.6% 15.4%
 O              63.04         73.56                 0.67 3.6% 17.8%
 INSW-PA              23.10         24.90                 0.53 8.5% 10.1%
 TGP-PB              21.84         24.25                 0.53 8.7% 13.5%
 DLNG-PB              18.02         18.80                 0.72 11.3% 8.3%
 OIBAX                5.36            5.47                 0.08 5.0% 3.5%
My income stocks are doing pretty well.

 Stock  12/31/2018  Current   Dividend   Change 
 TGP              11.02         14.96                  0.14 37.0%
 GLNG              21.76         21.09                  0.15 -2.4%
 TK                3.34            3.92                  0.06 19.0%
 CMRE                4.99            5.20                       -   4.2%
 DHT                3.92            4.46                  0.05 15.1%
 NMM                0.85            0.91                  0.02 9.5%
 CPLP                2.09            2.52                  0.05 22.6%
Shipping stocks are ok.  Really disappointed with GLNG.

 Stock  12/31/2018  Current   Dividend   Change 
 ECA                5.78            7.24                       -   25.3%
 CHK                2.10            3.10                       -   47.6%
 WPX              11.35         13.11                       -   15.5%
 SEDG              35.10         37.68                       -   7.4%
 AR                9.39            8.83                       -   -6.0%
 PXD            131.52       152.28                       -   15.8%

Energy is ok, AR just keeps dropping.  I sold WPX on Friday, so that is a wrap.  I continue to move to more and more cash.

Finally, here is my baker's dirty dozen:


 Stock   Start   Current   Dividend   Gain/Loss 
 AMCX          52.23          56.76                    -   8.7%
 AMAT          30.31          39.66               0.21 31.5%
 DLX          37.11          43.72               0.25 18.5%
 DXC          50.48          64.31                    -   27.4%
 KLAC          85.67        119.41               0.75 40.3%
 LRCX       127.16        179.01               1.10 41.6%
 MU          30.32          41.33                    -   36.3%
 SGH          28.75          19.20                    -   -33.2%
 WDC          35.90          48.06                    -   33.9%
 ECA            5.38             7.24               0.02 34.9%
 GLNG          21.72          21.09               0.15 -2.2%
 T          28.31          31.36               0.51 12.6%
 TGP          11.82          14.96               0.14 27.7%
 Total  21.4%

Again, the SGH crash doesn't help. DLX seems to be getting too cheap.

No comments: