As I alluded in MFI Getting Toasted, it was rough sledding in March. Most of it was just smaller cap stocks were not in favor. The Russell 2000 was down 2% and the Russell 2000 Value was down 3%.
It does get depressing. I almost didn't want to write this post. But year-to-date, things still look ok, although I have frittered away my lead. So not a disaster, just disappointing.
Welcome to the not-quite-famous MFI Diary. This is a diary/blog that I have been maintaining since early 2006 tracking my performance and thoughts about Magic Formula Investing. That, of course, is an investing approach from The Little Book That Beats The Markets by Joel Greenblatt.
Once a month, I do a bit of a post mortem/review of how things went in my MFI portfolios and sometimes offer some thoughts on my other investments. Keep in mind, I am not an investment advisor, just a retired actuary who is reasonable proficient with spreadsheets. So please do your own due diligence and if you ever think I'm smart, just read my December review.
Monthly Overview
While results were subpar, at least the sun has come out here in Southern New England. The snow has melted. Life is good. Here is table showing the month:
Component | YTD | Month Change |
Overall | +13.7% | -1.0% |
MFI Select | +14.6% | -4.9% |
MFI Formula | +12.0% | -2.0% |
MFI Combined | +13.3% | -3.3% |
Non MFI | +14.0% | +0.5% |
Dividend Index | +11.6% | +2.4% |
R3K Index | +13.9% | +0.8% |
Blended Index | +13.1% | +1.4% |
MFI Index | +7.8% | -5.6% |
GARIX | +5.6% | +0.1% |
So my MFI Combined was down 3.3% (pretty much like Russell 2000 Value). MFI Index (50 stocks from official list) were down an appalling 5.6%. GAIRX, an MFI mutual fund was flat and IWV was up 0.8%. Interestingly, the dividend index was best performer, up 2.4%. So with the spectre of higher future interest rates receding, bonds, reits, preferreds, utes etc are back in vogue.
Here are securities in my dividend index (from Barrons):
Ticker | 12/30/2018 | Current | YTD Change | Monthly Change |
AMLP | 8.73 | 10.03 | 17.2% | 2.9% |
NML | 6.69 | 7.96 | 21.4% | 4.5% |
EPD | 24.59 | 29.10 | 20.0% | 4.8% |
KMI | 15.38 | 20.01 | 33.8% | 1.4% |
FDD | 11.94 | 12.83 | 8.7% | -0.5% |
VGK | 48.62 | 53.61 | 11.0% | -0.5% |
NVS | 85.81 | 96.14 | 15.2% | 5.2% |
NOBL | 60.54 | 67.78 | 12.5% | 1.3% |
VYM | 77.99 | 85.66 | 10.6% | -0.6% |
MRK | 76.41 | 83.17 | 9.5% | 1.9% |
PEP | 110.48 | 122.55 | 11.7% | 5.5% |
VNQ | 74.57 | 86.91 | 17.9% | 3.8% |
RQI | 10.36 | 12.80 | 25.9% | 5.1% |
TCO | 45.49 | 52.88 | 17.6% | 2.8% |
SLG | 79.08 | 89.92 | 14.7% | -0.2% |
T | 28.54 | 31.36 | 11.7% | 1.8% |
VZ | 56.22 | 59.13 | 6.2% | 3.8% |
CHL | 48.00 | 50.99 | 6.2% | -4.0% |
DSU | 9.77 | 10.72 | 11.8% | -0.4% |
HIO | 4.38 | 4.83 | 12.3% | 0.0% |
MUB | 109.04 | 111.19 | 2.5% | 1.5% |
PRHYX | 6.16 | 6.48 | 6.2% | 0.3% |
NEA | 12.31 | 13.36 | 10.0% | 2.2% |
JNK | 33.59 | 35.97 | 8.6% | 1.1% |
VWITX | 13.91 | 14.18 | 2.6% | 1.1% |
PHMIX | 8.90 | 9.15 | 3.9% | 1.9% |
UTG | 29.43 | 33.68 | 16.1% | 4.3% |
XLU | 52.92 | 58.17 | 10.7% | 1.8% |
DUK | 86.30 | 90.00 | 5.3% | 0.5% |
EIX | 56.77 | 61.92 | 10.0% | 1.0% |
PFF | 34.23 | 36.55 | 8.4% | 0.7% |
JPC | 8.34 | 9.53 | 16.6% | 2.0% |
TIP | 109.51 | 113.07 | 3.8% | 2.2% |
SHY | 83.62 | 84.12 | 0.9% | 0.7% |
TLT | 121.51 | 126.44 | 4.7% | 6.6% |
Wow, TLT up 6.6%. May have to double check that as it is very strong. Wow, that is right. Seems to be saying there is some fear out there.
Here are the 50 stocks from MFI Index:
Stock | Start | Current | YTD Change | Last Month |
ACOR | 15.58 | 13.29 | -14.7% | -11.9% |
AEIS | 42.93 | 49.68 | 15.7% | -2.9% |
ALSN | 43.91 | 45.07 | 2.6% | -7.9% |
AMAT | 32.74 | 39.87 | 21.8% | 3.4% |
AGX | 37.84 | 50.20 | 32.7% | 7.8% |
AKG | 0.64 | 0.62 | -2.8% | -8.3% |
HRB | 25.37 | 24.19 | -4.7% | 0.2% |
BPT | 21.64 | 27.60 | 27.5% | 2.8% |
CECO | 11.42 | 16.52 | 44.7% | -1.5% |
CELG | 64.09 | 94.34 | 47.2% | 9.7% |
CJREF | 3.50 | 4.49 | 28.2% | -1.9% |
DLX | 38.44 | 43.97 | 14.4% | -4.8% |
DXC | 53.17 | 64.50 | 21.3% | -4.1% |
ESIO | 29.96 | 29.99 | 0.1% | 0.0% |
FTSI | 7.11 | 10.00 | 40.6% | -2.9% |
GME | 12.62 | 10.54 | -16.5% | -10.3% |
GILD | 62.55 | 65.66 | 5.0% | -0.5% |
EAF | 11.44 | 12.88 | 12.5% | -9.5% |
HSII | 31.19 | 38.48 | 23.4% | -11.1% |
HPQ | 20.46 | 19.59 | -4.3% | -0.1% |
IDT | 6.19 | 6.64 | 7.3% | 8.7% |
IMMR | 8.96 | 8.43 | -5.9% | -5.3% |
INVA | 17.45 | 14.03 | -19.6% | -8.5% |
IDCC | 66.43 | 66.33 | -0.2% | -2.6% |
IPG | 20.63 | 21.29 | 3.2% | -8.0% |
KLAC | 89.49 | 120.16 | 34.3% | 3.8% |
LRCX | 136.17 | 180.11 | 32.3% | 1.9% |
LGORF | 2.07 | 1.59 | -23.2% | -9.1% |
LTRPA | 15.89 | 14.19 | -10.7% | -5.0% |
TUSK | 17.98 | 16.65 | -7.4% | -29.1% |
MCFT | 18.70 | 22.57 | 20.7% | -8.1% |
MSB | 23.69 | 30.68 | 29.5% | 0.0% |
MSGN | 23.56 | 21.75 | -7.7% | -10.1% |
NHTC | 18.49 | 13.20 | -28.6% | 1.4% |
NKTR | 32.87 | 33.60 | 2.2% | -11.9% |
EGOV | 12.48 | 17.17 | 37.6% | 0.7% |
OMC | 73.24 | 73.64 | 0.5% | -4.0% |
PETS | 23.26 | 23.05 | -0.9% | -1.4% |
STX | 38.59 | 47.89 | 24.1% | 3.3% |
SIGA | 7.90 | 6.01 | -23.9% | -9.1% |
SP | 29.54 | 34.12 | 15.5% | -1.1% |
STRL | 10.89 | 12.52 | 15.0% | -14.8% |
TVTY | 24.81 | 17.56 | -29.2% | -16.5% |
TUP | 31.57 | 25.85 | -18.1% | -12.0% |
HEAR | 14.27 | 11.36 | -20.4% | -24.7% |
UIS | 11.63 | 11.67 | 0.3% | -14.6% |
UTHR | 108.90 | 117.37 | 7.8% | -7.5% |
VEC | 21.58 | 26.59 | 23.2% | -6.1% |
VIAB | 25.70 | 28.27 | 10.0% | -4.0% |
WDC | 36.97 | 48.06 | 30.0% | -7.0% |
10 of the 50 names dropped 10% or more in the month. And no real winners to speak of. I find this a bit ominous when combined with the movement in treasuries. Kind of like when at the beach and water recedes quickly... that probably means a tsunami is coming. My experience is small caps are often the canary in the coal mine.
MFI Select
I am going to run through this quickly as my heart isn't really in it this month. Most readers should know the drill. If not, page back a month.
5/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
CAAP | $12.19 | $8.27 | $0.00 | -32.2% | 8.7% |
TGNA | $10.51 | $14.10 | $0.28 | 36.9% | 8.7% |
DISCA | $23.85 | $27.02 | $0.00 | 13.3% | 8.7% |
FTSI | $19.39 | $10.00 | $0.00 | -48.4% | 8.7% |
ICHR | $21.96 | $22.58 | $0.00 | 2.8% | 8.7% |
Totals | -5.5% | 8.7% | |||
8/15/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
AGX | $39.45 | $49.95 | $0.50 | 27.9% | 0.0% |
AMCX | $60.97 | $56.76 | $0.00 | -6.9% | 0.0% |
CJREF | $3.08 | $4.43 | $0.12 | 47.7% | 0.0% |
GME | $15.50 | $10.16 | $1.14 | -27.1% | 0.0% |
SGH | $31.12 | $19.20 | $0.00 | -38.3% | 0.0% |
Totals | 0.6% | 0.0% | |||
11/15/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
AGX | $43.15 | $49.95 | $0.25 | 16.3% | 6.1% |
DXC | $62.00 | $64.31 | $0.19 | 4.0% | 6.1% |
MU | $38.49 | $41.33 | $0.00 | 7.4% | 6.1% |
SGH | $29.67 | $19.20 | $0.00 | -35.3% | 6.1% |
WDC | $44.92 | $48.06 | $1.00 | 9.2% | 6.1% |
Totals | 0.3% | 6.1% | |||
2/1/2019 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
AGX | $42.18 | $49.95 | $0.00 | 18.4% | 5.1% |
BBY | $58.84 | $71.06 | $0.50 | 21.6% | 5.1% |
HPQ | $22.07 | $19.43 | $0.16 | -11.2% | 5.1% |
MU | $38.22 | $41.33 | $0.00 | 8.1% | 5.1% |
RTN | $166.65 | $182.08 | $0.00 | 9.3% | 5.1% |
VIAB | $29.40 | $28.07 | $0.20 | -3.8% | 5.1% |
WDC | $44.99 | $48.06 | $0.50 | 7.9% | 5.1% |
Totals | 7.2% | 5.1% | |||
Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
Current Tranche | 0.6% | 0.3% | 7.2% | -5.5% | 1.4% |
Previous Tranche | 27.8% | -0.6% | -27.3% | -3.6% | 28.3% |
Tranche -2 | -0.1% | 42.6% | 74.9% | 19.1% | 34.2% |
Tranche -3 | 2.8% | 8.0% | 10.7% | -25.2% | -0.9% |
Tranche -4 | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | 18.3% | 21.2% |
Tranche -5 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 33.0% | 24.3% |
Tranche -6 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 0.0% | 34.0% |
MFI Overall Gain | 137.2% | 327.3% | 150.1% | 27.7% | 160.6% |
Current Balance | 59,291 | 106,835 | 62,513 | 31,913 | 260,553 |
R3K Current Tranche | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 8.7% | 5.0% |
R3K Overall Gain | 125.8% | 131.5% | 106.9% | 93.4% | 114.4% |
R3K Balance | 56,440 | 57,868 | 51,731 | 48,351 | 214,391 |
Annualized IRR | 13.9% | 25.6% | 16.0% | 4.2% | 14.9% |
Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
1/1/2017 | 45.60% | 209,503 | 163,936 |
4/1/2017 | 55.70% | 229,473 | 173,735 |
7/1/2017 | 60.28% | 239,060 | 178,782 |
10/1/2017 | 75.60% | 262,489 | 186,886 |
1/1/2018 | 92.19% | 291,114 | 198,926 |
4/1/2018 | 96.21% | 293,665 | 197,451 |
7/1/2018 | 68.20% | 273,125 | 204,921 |
10/1/2018 | 65.80% | 284,097 | 218,297 |
1/1/2019 | 39.77% | 228,246 | 188,479 |
4/1/2019 | 46.16% | 260,553 | 214,391 |
Stock | Last Month | Current | Dividend | Change |
AGX | 45.98 | 49.95 | - | 8.6% |
WDC | 50.97 | 48.06 | - | -5.7% |
MU | 42.96 | 41.33 | - | -3.8% |
SGH | 30.86 | 19.20 | - | -37.8% |
DISCA | 28.39 | 27.02 | - | -4.8% |
TGNA | 12.52 | 14.10 | 0.07 | 13.2% |
BBY | 60.31 | 71.06 | 0.50 | 18.7% |
CJREF | 4.60 | 4.43 | 0.06 | -2.5% |
RTN | 185.24 | 182.08 | - | -1.7% |
VIAB | 29.14 | 28.07 | 0.20 | -3.0% |
ICHR | 21.68 | 22.58 | - | 4.2% |
DXC | 67.18 | 64.31 | - | -4.3% |
HPQ | 23.90 | 19.43 | 0.16 | -18.0% |
AMCX | 62.45 | 56.76 | - | -9.1% |
GME | 11.64 | 10.16 | 0.38 | -9.5% |
CAAP | 8.03 | 8.27 | - | 3.0% |
FTSI | 10.54 | 10.00 | - | -5.1% |
Gad, SGH down 37% on the month. That was a bad pick.
MFI Formula
4/3/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
AMGN | $166.46 | $189.98 | $5.28 | 17.3% | 10.6% |
VIAB | $29.20 | $28.07 | $0.80 | -1.1% | 10.6% |
GILD | $72.71 | $65.01 | $2.34 | -7.4% | 10.6% |
TUP | $47.32 | $25.58 | $2.31 | -41.1% | 10.6% |
EGOV | $13.29 | $17.09 | $0.32 | 31.0% | 10.6% |
Totals | -0.2% | 10.6% | |||
7/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
CJREF | $3.90 | $4.43 | $0.31 | 21.4% | 4.8% |
GILD | $70.80 | $65.01 | $1.77 | -5.7% | 4.8% |
IPG | $22.80 | $21.01 | $0.66 | -5.0% | 4.8% |
KLAC | $102.03 | $119.41 | $2.25 | 19.2% | 4.8% |
TUP | $40.09 | $25.58 | $1.63 | -32.1% | 4.8% |
Totals | -0.4% | 4.8% | |||
10/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
CJREF | $3.36 | $4.43 | $0.12 | 35.3% | -2.4% |
GILD | $78.13 | $65.01 | $1.20 | -15.3% | -2.4% |
IPG | $22.80 | $21.01 | $0.45 | -5.9% | -2.4% |
PETS | $31.56 | $22.78 | $0.54 | -26.1% | -2.4% |
VIAB | $32.21 | $28.07 | $0.40 | -11.6% | -2.4% |
Totals | -4.7% | -2.4% | |||
1/2/2019 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
EGOV | $12.54 | $17.09 | $0.08 | 36.9% | 15.3% |
GILD | $62.01 | $65.01 | $0.63 | 5.9% | 15.3% |
IPG | $20.50 | $21.01 | $0.24 | 3.6% | 15.3% |
KLAC | $90.04 | $119.41 | $0.75 | 33.5% | 15.3% |
OMC | $72.74 | $72.99 | $0.65 | 1.2% | 15.3% |
Totals | 16.2% | 15.3% | |||
Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
Current Tranche | -4.7% | 16.2% | -0.2% | -0.4% | 2.7% |
Previous Tranche | 18.5% | -4.0% | 21.3% | 37.3% | 19.9% |
Tranche -2 | 7.0% | 16.5% | 25.2% | 26.7% | 18.8% |
Tranche -3 | 5.5% | 9.3% | -0.2% | -12.5% | 0.5% |
Tranche -4 | 0.5% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
MFI Overall Gain | 28.1% | 57.6% | 51.1% | 51.7% | 47.1% |
Current Balance | 319,954 | 393,943 | 378,062 | 378,742 | 1,470,700 |
R3K Current Tranche | -2.4% | 15.3% | 10.6% | 4.8% | 7.1% |
R3K Overall Gain | 53.8% | 44.3% | 43.3% | 43.2% | 46.1% |
R3K Balance | 384,120 | 360,753 | 358,465 | 357,585 | 1,460,923 |
Annualized IRR | 5.7% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 9.9% |
Seem to be struggling again. March was rugged. April 1st tranche is officially closed.
Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
1/1/2017 | 1.57% | 113,406 | 111,832 |
4/1/2017 | -1.86% | 116,227 | 118,091 |
7/1/2017 | -2.40% | 119,144 | 121,545 |
10/1/2017 | -2.56% | 124,448 | 127,007 |
1/1/2018 | -3.63% | 131,460 | 135,086 |
4/1/2018 | -0.16% | 133,734 | 133,898 |
7/1/2018 | 2.28% | 141,126 | 138,849 |
10/1/2018 | -0.85% | 147,963 | 148,808 |
1/1/2019 | 3.90% | 132,405 | 128,506 |
4/1/2019 | 0.98% | 147,070 | 146,092 |
Stock | Last Month | Current | Dividend | Change |
GILD | 65.02 | 65.01 | 0.65 | 1.0% |
IPG | 23.03 | 21.01 | 0.24 | -7.7% |
EGOV | 17.09 | 17.09 | - | 0.0% |
CJREF | 4.57 | 4.43 | 0.06 | -1.8% |
KLAC | 115.49 | 119.41 | - | 3.4% |
OMC | 75.70 | 72.99 | 0.65 | -2.7% |
VIAB | 29.22 | 28.07 | 0.20 | -3.3% |
TUP | 30.11 | 25.58 | 0.27 | -14.1% |
AMGN | 190.08 | 189.98 | - | -0.1% |
PETS | 23.05 | 22.78 | - | -1.2% |
Again, you can see the struggle that was March.
Non MFI
At least my non MFI was up 1/2 a percent for the month.
Stock | 12/31/2018 | Current | Dividend | Yield | Change |
LADR | 15.47 | 17.02 | 0.34 | 8.0% | 12.2% |
T | 28.54 | 31.36 | 0.51 | 6.5% | 11.7% |
OXY | 61.38 | 66.20 | 0.78 | 4.7% | 9.1% |
CTL | 15.15 | 11.99 | 0.25 | 9.0% | -19.2% |
KCLI | 37.00 | 35.25 | 0.27 | 3.1% | -4.0% |
GLOP-PB | 20.33 | 24.25 | 0.52 | 8.5% | 21.8% |
CBL-PD | 9.90 | 9.71 | - | 18.9% | -1.9% |
NRZ | 14.21 | 16.91 | 11.8% | 19.0% | |
TOO-PE | 17.90 | 19.21 | 0.69 | 11.0% | 11.2% |
NTR | 47.00 | 52.76 | 0.43 | 3.3% | 13.2% |
TGONF | 11.38 | 12.95 | 0.18 | 5.6% | 15.4% |
O | 63.04 | 73.56 | 0.67 | 3.6% | 17.8% |
INSW-PA | 23.10 | 24.90 | 0.53 | 8.5% | 10.1% |
TGP-PB | 21.84 | 24.25 | 0.53 | 8.7% | 13.5% |
DLNG-PB | 18.02 | 18.80 | 0.72 | 11.3% | 8.3% |
OIBAX | 5.36 | 5.47 | 0.08 | 5.0% | 3.5% |
My income stocks are doing pretty well.
Stock | 12/31/2018 | Current | Dividend | Change |
TGP | 11.02 | 14.96 | 0.14 | 37.0% |
GLNG | 21.76 | 21.09 | 0.15 | -2.4% |
TK | 3.34 | 3.92 | 0.06 | 19.0% |
CMRE | 4.99 | 5.20 | - | 4.2% |
DHT | 3.92 | 4.46 | 0.05 | 15.1% |
NMM | 0.85 | 0.91 | 0.02 | 9.5% |
CPLP | 2.09 | 2.52 | 0.05 | 22.6% |
Shipping stocks are ok. Really disappointed with GLNG.
Stock | 12/31/2018 | Current | Dividend | Change |
ECA | 5.78 | 7.24 | - | 25.3% |
CHK | 2.10 | 3.10 | - | 47.6% |
WPX | 11.35 | 13.11 | - | 15.5% |
SEDG | 35.10 | 37.68 | - | 7.4% |
AR | 9.39 | 8.83 | - | -6.0% |
PXD | 131.52 | 152.28 | - | 15.8% |
Energy is ok, AR just keeps dropping. I sold WPX on Friday, so that is a wrap. I continue to move to more and more cash.
Finally, here is my baker's dirty dozen:
Stock | Start | Current | Dividend | Gain/Loss |
AMCX | 52.23 | 56.76 | - | 8.7% |
AMAT | 30.31 | 39.66 | 0.21 | 31.5% |
DLX | 37.11 | 43.72 | 0.25 | 18.5% |
DXC | 50.48 | 64.31 | - | 27.4% |
KLAC | 85.67 | 119.41 | 0.75 | 40.3% |
LRCX | 127.16 | 179.01 | 1.10 | 41.6% |
MU | 30.32 | 41.33 | - | 36.3% |
SGH | 28.75 | 19.20 | - | -33.2% |
WDC | 35.90 | 48.06 | - | 33.9% |
ECA | 5.38 | 7.24 | 0.02 | 34.9% |
GLNG | 21.72 | 21.09 | 0.15 | -2.2% |
T | 28.31 | 31.36 | 0.51 | 12.6% |
TGP | 11.82 | 14.96 | 0.14 | 27.7% |
Total | 21.4% |
Again, the SGH crash doesn't help. DLX seems to be getting too cheap.
No comments:
Post a Comment