Saturday, March 02, 2019

MFI Diary Monthly Update - February 2019

MFI Diary Monthly Update - February 2019

Another month has passed.  Pinch me, but 2019 is off to a great start.  I am still below where I was at the end of October (when the bottom fell out of energy, shipping and pretty much everything I owned), but progress has been made.

Welcome to the not-quite-famous MFI Diary.  This is a diary/blog that I have been maintaining since early 2006 tracking my performance and thoughts about Magic Formula Investing.  That, of course, is an investing approach from The Little Book That Beats The Markets by Joel Greenblatt.

Once a month, I do a bit of a post mortem/review of how things went in my MFI portfolios and sometimes offer some thoughts on my other investments.  Keep in mind, I am not an investment advisor, just a retired actuary who is reasonable proficient with spreadsheets.  So please do your own due diligence and if you ever think I'm smart, just read my December review.

Quick Monthly Overview

As my picture shows, Best Buy had a good month, but was frankly one of many doing well.

Here is a table showing performance for February:


 Component   YTD   Month Change 
 Overall  +14.7% +3.9%
 MFI Select  +19.5% +9.9%
 MFI Formula  +14.0% +2.8%
 MFI Combined  +16.6% +6.1%
 Non MFI  +13.5% +2.5%
 Dividend Index  +9.2% +2.7%
 R3K Index  +13.1% +4.6%
 Blended Index  +11.7% +3.9%
 MFI Index  +13.4% +2.5%
 GARIX  +5.5% +1.4%


You can see that my MFI portfolios are doing well.  My two MFI portfolios (Select and Formula) are up 16.6% on the year and a snappy 6.1% during February (ok, I was on vacation, so I included March 1st).   Really, not much not to like in this table.  GARIX is underperforming, but recall it is a long/short MFI mutual fund.  My MFI Index, a grouping of 50 MFI Stocks, is up 13.4% on the year... so pretty much equal with Russell 3000.

I continue to trade very little this year.  Besides the rollover of my MFI Formula portfolio on February 1st, I only made four buys, two of which were swing trades.

Benchmarks

Always good to have benchmarks.  First, here is my Dividend Index - which is just under 40 securities, all focused on income (so some bonds, preferreds, REITs, MLPs, Treasuries, Utilities, etc).


 Ticker  12/30/2018  Current   Dividend   YTD Change   Yield 
 AMLP              8.73               9.75            0.21 14.0%         8.13%
 NML              6.69               7.62            0.11 15.5% 8.66%
 EPD           24.59             27.78            0.42 14.7% 6.22%
 KMI           15.38             19.74            0.57 32.0% 4.05%
 FDD           11.94             12.89                 -   8.0% 4.12%
 VGK           48.62             53.89                 -   10.8% 4.11%
 NVS           85.81             91.40            2.75 9.7% 3.22%
 NOBL           60.54             66.90                 -   10.5% 2.15%
 VYM           77.99             86.21                 -   10.5% 2.99%
 MRK           76.41             81.65                 -   6.9% 2.44%
 PEP         110.48          116.18            0.81 5.9% 3.20%
 VNQ           74.57             83.73                 -   12.3% 4.58%
 RQI           10.36             12.18            0.16 19.1% 7.89%
 TCO           45.49             51.44                 -   13.1% 5.08%
 SLG           79.08             90.13                 -   14.0% 3.65%
 T           28.54             30.82            0.51 9.8% 6.52%
 VZ           56.22             56.96            0.56 2.3% 4.19%
 CHL           48.00             53.12                 -   10.7% 4.08%
 DSU              9.77             10.76            0.14 11.5% 7.65%
 HIO              4.38               4.83            0.06 11.6% 6.57%
 MUB         109.04          109.58            0.63 1.1% 2.49%
 PRHYX              6.16               6.46            0.06 5.8% 5.40%
 NEA           12.31             13.07            0.12 7.1% 5.02%
 JNK           33.59             35.59            0.50 7.4% 5.64%
 VWITX           13.91             14.03            0.09 1.5% 2.80%
 PHMIX              8.90               8.98            0.10 2.0% 2.80%
 UTG           29.43             32.30            0.32 10.8% 4.20%
 XLU           52.92             57.13                 -   8.0% 3.16%
 DUK           86.30             89.53            0.89 4.8% 4.10%
 EIX           56.77             61.31                 -   8.0% 3.96%
 PFF           34.23             36.29            0.54 7.6% 5.91%
 JPC              8.34               9.34            0.13 13.5% 7.97%
 TIP         109.51          110.66            0.63 1.6% 2.82%
 SHY           83.62             83.54            0.24 0.2% 1.80%
 TLT         121.51          118.66            0.77 -1.7% 2.70%
 Totals                   -                   -   9.2% 4.58%

Pretty impressive for two months.  Sadly, T and KMI are the only two I owned at start of year.  I have kept T, but sold KMI way too early.

Now let us look at the 50 stocks in my MFI Index. Again, this is a benchmark, not part of my portfolio.


 Stock   Start   Current   YTD Change   Last Month 
   ACOR        15.58             15.08 -3.2% -8.4%
   AEIS        42.93             51.15 19.1% 0.6%
   ALSN        43.91             48.94 11.5% 0.2%
   AMAT        32.74             38.56 17.8% -2.6%
   AGX        37.84             46.57 23.1% 10.4%
   AKG          0.64                0.68 6.0% -12.3%
   HRB        25.37             24.14 -4.8% -5.4%
   BPT        21.64             26.86 24.1% 11.4%
   CECO        11.42             16.77 46.8% 30.5%
   CELG        64.09             85.96 34.1% -2.4%
   CJREF          3.50                4.57 30.6% 8.8%
   DLX        38.44             46.21 20.2% -3.0%
   DXC        53.17             67.27 26.5% 4.8%
   ESIO        29.96             29.99 0.1% 0.0%
   FTSI          7.11             10.30 44.9% 26.5%
   GME        12.62             11.75 -6.9% 4.9%
   GILD        62.55             66.01 5.5% -5.5%
   EAF        11.44             14.23 24.4% 8.3%
   HSII        31.19             43.27 38.7% 33.2%
   HPQ        20.46             19.60 -4.2% -11.7%
   IDT          6.19                6.11 -1.3% -13.7%
   IMMR          8.96                8.90 -0.7% -6.3%
   INVA        17.45             15.33 -12.1% -15.9%
   IDCC        66.43             68.07 2.5% -5.6%
   IPG        20.63             23.13 12.1% 1.8%
   KLAC        89.49           115.78 29.4% 9.2%
   LRCX      136.17           176.75 29.8% 3.4%
   LGORF          2.07                1.75 -15.5% -16.6%
   LTRPA        15.89             14.94 -6.0% -9.4%
   TUSK        17.98             23.48 30.6% 0.9%
   MCFT        18.70             24.55 31.3% 12.9%
   MSB        23.69             29.42 24.2% 0.0%
   MSGN        23.56             24.19 2.7% 8.7%
   NHTC        18.49             13.02 -29.6% -22.9%
   NKTR        32.87             38.13 16.0% -11.5%
   EGOV        12.48             17.05 36.6% 20.4%
   OMC        73.24             76.72 4.8% -0.9%
   PETS        23.26             23.38 0.5% 1.6%
   STX        38.59             46.35 20.1% 6.0%
   SIGA          7.90                6.61 -16.3% 0.0%
   SP        29.54             34.51 16.8% 4.1%
   STRL        10.89             14.70 35.0% 10.8%
   TVTY        24.81             21.02 -15.3% -4.8%
   TUP        31.57             29.36 -7.0% 6.1%
   HEAR        14.27             15.08 5.7% 3.9%
   UIS        11.63             13.66 17.5% 4.9%
   UTHR      108.90           126.84 16.5% 9.2%
   VEC        21.58             28.32 31.2% 15.3%
   VIAB        25.70             29.45 14.6% 2.9%
   WDC        36.97             51.66 39.7% 17.9%

Wow,  11 of the 50 stocks are up over 30% in just two months (and I own WDC, CJREF, FTSI and EGOV).  The only "disaster" is NHTC.  

The final "benchmark" I'll share is my dirty dozen that I created on 12/21.  I only wish I had just gone all in on these 13 stocks that day!  I knew they were good values, but always hard to pull the trigger when you've been punched in the face.

 Stock   Start   Current   Dividend   Gain/Loss 
 AMCX          52.23          66.39                    -   27.1%
 AMAT          30.31          38.56                    -   27.2%
 DLX          37.11          46.21               0.25 25.2%
 DXC          50.48          67.27                    -   33.3%
 KLAC          85.67        115.78               0.75 36.0%
 LRCX       127.16        176.75                    -   39.0%
 MU          30.32          41.58                    -   37.1%
 SGH          28.75          28.38                    -   -1.3%
 WDC          35.90          51.66                    -   43.9%
 ECA            5.38             7.26                    -   34.9%
 GLNG          21.72          20.92                    -   -3.7%
 T          28.31          30.82               0.51 10.7%
 TGP          11.82          13.92               0.14 19.0%
 Total  25.3%

GLNG and SGH are the disappointments.  I don't understand at all how GLNG is at a 52 week low after solid earnings and lots of good catalysts.  Yes, I am long.

MFI Select

As my regular readers know, I have two portfolios of real $ in MFI stocks.  the first I named MFI Select.  I started it in August 2012 after I had quit MFI a year earlier in frustration with my results.  I had gone back and reviewed MFI results back to 2006 and the issue has always been too many "stinker" stocks, those going down by 30% or more.... historically in the 50 over $100m screen, about 15% of stocks are stinkers. For me, a key to success is to minimize the number of stinkers I pick.

MFI Select has historically consisted of 4 tranches of stocks with each tranche consisting of 5 stocks.  I changed that in February and will now make each tranche have 7 stocks.  This is in part to smooth my results a bit more and also reflects that I am committing a larger and larger % of my total assets to MFI.

Here are the 4 tranches:


5/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CAAP  $12.19 $7.81 $0.00 -35.9% 8.0%
 TGNA  $10.51 $14.95 $0.21 44.3% 8.0%
 DISCA  $23.85 $29.08 $0.00 21.9% 8.0%
 FTSI  $19.39 $10.30 $0.00 -46.9% 8.0%
 ICHR  $21.96 $21.10 $0.00 -3.9% 8.0%
 Totals  -4.1% 8.0%
8/15/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $39.45 $46.57 $0.50 19.3% -0.7%
 AMCX  $60.97 $66.39 $0.00 8.9% -0.7%
 CJREF  $3.08 $4.57 $0.06 50.4% -0.7%
 GME  $15.50 $11.75 $0.76 -19.3% -0.7%
 SGH  $31.12 $28.38 $0.00 -8.8% -0.7%
 Totals  10.1% -0.7%
11/15/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $43.15 $46.57 $0.25 8.5% 5.3%
 DXC  $62.00 $67.27 $0.19 8.8% 5.3%
 MU  $38.49 $41.58 $0.00 8.0% 5.3%
 SGH  $29.67 $28.38 $0.00 -4.3% 5.3%
 WDC  $44.92 $51.66 $0.50 16.1% 5.3%
 Totals  7.4% 5.3%
2/1/2019  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $42.18 $46.57 $0.00 10.4% 4.3%
 BBY  $58.84 $67.81 $0.00 15.2% 4.3%
 HPQ  $22.07 $19.60 $0.00 -11.2% 4.3%
 MU  $38.22 $41.58 $0.00 8.8% 4.3%
 RTN  $166.65 $186.19 $0.00 11.7% 4.3%
 VIAB  $29.40 $29.45 $0.00 0.2% 4.3%
 WDC  $44.99 $51.66 $0.00 14.8% 4.3%
 Totals  7.1% 4.3%

So the good news is that 3 of the 4 are leading their benchmarks.  May 2018 is my stink bomb, with 2 of 5 names down 30% or more (FTSI and CAAP).  You can see my newest tranche, with 7 names, is off to a nice 7.1% start.  Here is a table summarizing all tranches, open and closed:


 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000             25,000           25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  10.1% 7.4% 7.1% -4.1% 5.2%
 Previous Tranche  27.8% -0.6% -27.3% -3.6% 30.2%
 Tranche -2  -0.1% 42.6% 74.9% 19.1% 34.2%
 Tranche -3  2.8% 8.0% 10.7% -25.2% -0.9%
 Tranche -4  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 21.2%
 Tranche -5  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -6  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 34.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  159.4% 357.5% 149.9% 29.6% 174.1%
 Current Balance         64,862           114,381           62,487        32,392         274,122
 R3K Current Tranche  -0.7% 5.3% 4.3% 8.0% 4.2%
 R3K Overall Gain  124.2% 129.8% 105.5% 92.0% 112.9%
 R3K Balance         56,042             57,458           51,363        48,011         212,873
 Annualized IRR  15.7% 27.3% 16.3% 4.5% 15.9%

So my 4 open tranches are up an average of 5.2%, beating index (at 4.2%).  My annualized IRR is 15.9%... it was over 20% a year ago, so we have definitely had a rocky stretch.  The current balance row show for each tranche how a hypothetical $25,000 initial investment would have grown.  For whatever reason, my November picks have always been great... May - Not so great.

This table shows how that hypothetical $100,000 initially put in would have grown quarter by quarter.  You can see why I am putting more of my assets in MFI:


 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
1/1/2017 45.60%        209,503            163,936
4/1/2017 55.70%        229,473            173,735
7/1/2017 60.28%        239,060            178,782
10/1/2017 75.60%        262,489            186,886
1/1/2018 92.19%        291,114            198,926
4/1/2018 96.21%        293,665            197,451
7/1/2018 68.20%        273,125            204,921
10/1/2018 65.80%        284,097            218,297
1/1/2019 39.77%        228,246            188,479
Current 61.25%        274,122            212,873

You can see how bad Q4 of 2018 was, going from $284,097 to 228,246. But we have recouped a lot of that here in Q1.  Even with rocky stretch, MFI Select is beating benchmark 274.122 to 212,873.

Here are my stocks in February and how they did.

 Stock   Last Month   Current   Dividend   Change 
 AGX              42.00         46.57                       -   10.9%
 WDC              47.00         51.66                       -   9.9%
 MU              39.60         41.58                       -   5.0%
 SGH              25.84         28.38                       -   9.8%
 DISCA              28.56         29.08                       -   1.8%
 TGNA              11.28         14.95                       -   32.5%
 BBY              58.47         67.81                       -   16.0%
 CJREF                4.30            4.57                       -   6.3%
 RTN            165.96       186.19                       -   12.2%
 VIAB              29.53         29.45                       -   -0.3%
 ICHR              20.84         21.10                       -   1.2%
 DXC              65.10         67.27                       -   3.3%
 HPQ              22.26         19.60                       -   -11.9%
 AMCX              62.42         66.39                       -   6.4%
 GME              11.24         11.75                       -   4.5%
 CAAP                8.39            7.81                       -   -6.9%
 FTSI                8.52         10.30                       -   20.9%

MFI Formula

Ok, my second tranche is MFI Formula.  While in MFI Select, I give myself free form to pick whatever stocks I want (even some like CAAP that are not on official list as I run my own screens) - with MFI Formula I pick from official screen, with some filters and a random number generator.  I started this approach in October 2014.


4/3/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $166.46 $191.16 $5.28 18.0% 9.8%
 VIAB  $29.20 $29.45 $0.60 2.9% 9.8%
 GILD  $72.71 $66.01 $1.71 -6.9% 9.8%
 TUP  $47.32 $29.36 $2.04 -33.6% 9.8%
 EGOV  $13.29 $17.05 $0.24 30.1% 9.8%
 Totals  2.1% 9.8%
7/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.90 $4.57 $0.25 23.6% 4.0%
 GILD  $70.80 $66.01 $1.14 -5.2% 4.0%
 IPG  $22.80 $23.13 $0.66 4.3% 4.0%
 KLAC  $102.03 $115.78 $2.25 15.7% 4.0%
 TUP  $40.09 $29.36 $1.36 -23.4% 4.0%
 Totals  3.0% 4.0%
10/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.36 $4.57 $0.06 37.8% -3.1%
 GILD  $78.13 $66.01 $0.57 -14.8% -3.1%
 IPG  $22.80 $23.13 $0.45 3.4% -3.1%
 PETS  $31.56 $23.38 $0.54 -24.2% -3.1%
 VIAB  $32.21 $29.45 $0.20 -7.9% -3.1%
 Totals  -1.1% -3.1%
1/2/2019  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 EGOV  $12.54 $17.05 $0.00 36.0% 14.5%
 GILD  $62.01 $66.01 $0.00 6.5% 14.5%
 IPG  $20.50 $23.13 $0.24 14.0% 14.5%
 KLAC  $90.04 $115.78 $0.75 29.4% 14.5%
 OMC  $72.74 $76.72 $0.00 5.5% 14.5%
 Totals  18.3% 14.5%

So kind of 50/50 here.  Two of my tranches are leading the benchmark R3K and two are trailing.  I do have one stinker in my 20 names, TUP in April 2018... hopefully it recoups some the final  month.

Here is table aggregating all tranches:


 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  -1.1% 18.3% 2.1% 3.0% 5.6%
 Previous Tranche  18.5% -4.0% 21.3% 37.3% 19.9%
 Tranche -2  7.0% 16.5% 25.2% 26.7% 18.8%
 Tranche -3  5.5% 9.3% -0.2% -12.5% 0.5%
 Tranche -4  0.5% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
 MFI Overall Gain  32.9% 60.4% 54.7% 56.9% 51.2%
 Current Balance      331,945        400,847     386,985      391,817      1,511,593
 R3K Current Tranche  -3.1% 14.5% 9.8% 4.0% 6.3%
 R3K Overall Gain  52.7% 43.3% 42.3% 42.2% 45.1%
 R3K Balance      381,395        358,181     355,943      355,069      1,450,588
 Annualized IRR  6.6% 12.0% 11.8% 13.0% 10.9%

Again, decent annualized IRR of 10.9%.  My 4 current tranches are trailing benchmark by a point.

Here is table showing growth of hypothetical $100,000 at year 1:

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
1/1/2017 1.57%        113,406            111,832
4/1/2017 -1.86%        116,227            118,091
7/1/2017 -2.40%        119,144            121,545
10/1/2017 -2.56%        124,448            127,007
1/1/2018 -3.63%        131,460            135,086
4/1/2018 -0.16%        133,734            133,898
7/1/2018 2.28%        141,126            138,849
10/1/2018 -0.85%        147,963            148,808
1/1/2019 3.90%        132,405            128,506
Current 6.10%        151,159            145,057

Here is a table showing how the stocks did in February:

 Stock   Last Month   Current   Dividend   Change 
 GILD              70.05         66.01                       -   -5.8%
 IPG              22.67         23.13                  0.24 3.1%
 EGOV              16.54         17.05                       -   3.1%
 CJREF                4.30            4.57                       -   6.3%
 KLAC            106.96       115.78                  0.75 8.9%
 OMC              77.60         76.72                       -   -1.1%
 VIAB              29.53         29.45                       -   -0.3%
 TUP              26.69         29.36                       -   10.0%
 AMGN            187.07       191.16                  1.32 2.9%
 PETS              22.94         23.38                       -   1.9%

So TUP has recovered over 10% from when they slashed their dividend.

Non MFI

If you came here to read about my MFI performance, you are free to leave now.  The rest of this posting will have some tables on my non MFI - primarily income holdings, shipping and energy.

AS I am retired, I am trying to create a steady income stream from dividends/distributions.  Here are my core holdings.


 Stock  12/31/2018  Current   Dividend   Yield   Change 
 LADR              15.47         17.96                      -   7.6% 16.1%
 T              28.54         30.82                 0.51 6.6% 9.8%
 OXY              61.38         67.55                      -   4.6% 10.1%
 CTL              15.15         12.97                      -   8.3% -14.4%
 KCLI              37.00         36.00                 0.27 3.0% -2.0%
 GLOP-PB              20.33         24.68                      -   8.3% 21.4%
 ET              13.21         14.98                 0.31 8.1% 15.7%
 NRZ              14.21         16.56 12.1% 16.5%
 TOO-PE              17.90         19.67                 0.69 10.8% 13.7%
 NTR              47.00         54.68 3.1% 16.3%
 TGONF              11.38         12.68                 0.18 5.7% 13.0%
 O              63.04         69.14                 0.45 3.8% 10.4%
 INSW-PA              23.10         24.97 8.5% 8.1%
 TGP-PB              21.84         24.00 8.8% 9.9%
 DLNG-PB              18.02         19.73                 0.72 10.7% 13.5%
 OIBAX                5.36            5.51                 0.05 5.0% 3.7%

So similar to my MFI holdings, you can see these have done well in 2019.  My only regret was selling KMI (not shown here) too early as it is up 32% in 2019.  CTL is my one poor holding as they cut their dividend in half this month.

Here are my shipping holdings:


 Stock  12/31/2018  Current   Dividend   Change 
 TGP              11.02         13.92                  0.14 27.6%
 GLNG              21.76         20.92                       -   -3.9%
 TK                3.34            4.11                  0.06 24.7%
 CMRE                4.99            5.13                       -   2.8%
 DHT                3.92            4.42                  0.05 14.0%
 NMM                0.85            0.97                  0.02 16.7%
 CPLP                2.09            2.26                  0.05 10.3%

Here are my energy holdings:


 Stock  12/31/2018  Current   Dividend   Change 
 ECA                5.78            7.26                       -   25.6%
 CHK                2.10            3.13                       -   49.0%
 WPX              11.35         12.54                       -   10.5%
 SEDG              35.10         41.34                       -   17.8%
 AR                9.39            9.15                       -   -2.6%
 PXD            131.52       144.46                       -   9.8%

So some nice moves in Energy and shipping... but again those are after getting bludgeoned in q4. In hindsight, the smart move would have been to have doubled down on 12/31!

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