Another month/year has flown by. And so it is time to look at another monthly tracking portfolio as we hit the end of May 2017. As my faithful readers know, I have been tracking the Magic Formula Stocks as described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats the Stock Market since January 2006. Every month I take the top 50 stocks over $100m market cap from his website and track how that portfolio of stocks fares versus the Russell 3000 for the next 12 months. It has been an uphill struggle as the tracking portfolios have under-performed, driven in part by Chinese reverse merger fiascos, for-profit education stocks and home health care stocks all being proverbial albatrosses.
Onward
Scratch all that!!!!! Gad, I hate Yahoo Finance!!! That worsening just seemed over the top. I decided to dig a bit before "going to press". The historical price component of Yahoo Finance seems to be f*cked up when there are splits (at the very least) and dividends. I looked at USNA and Yahoo Finance has their split adjusted price a year ago (they split 2 for 1 in October 2016) at $120.65 and actual at $241.30. Those are both off by a factor of 2. Whoops. So I showed USNA (using Yahoo formulas) as down 50% when they were actually flattish.
It will take too long to fix everything right now. And I will wait a month to see if Yahoo just fixes. So I have an approach that should be 99% correct (I will be missing dividends paid in past 30 days). With this approach, MFI lost by 260 basis points. Now losing 10 of 11 open tracking portfolios.
Here are the 50 stocks in descending performance order:
Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change | Mkt Cap |
ACHI | 1.76 | 3.47 | 97.2% | 195 |
IILG | 14.00 | 26.85 | 91.8% | 817 |
BBY | 31.08 | 58.97 | 89.8% | 10,365 |
STRA | 47.70 | 88.86 | 86.3% | 534 |
AGX | 33.62 | 60.80 | 80.8% | 508 |
CPLA | 51.47 | 87.90 | 70.8% | 613 |
MBUU | 13.85 | 23.52 | 69.8% | 248 |
BPT | 12.06 | 20.20 | 67.5% | 300 |
BLBD | 11.05 | 17.95 | 62.4% | 232 |
AAPL | 98.46 | 153.61 | 56.0% | 549,762 |
WNC | 13.70 | 20.88 | 52.4% | 896 |
HPQ | 12.73 | 18.47 | 45.1% | 22,508 |
IDCC | 57.07 | 82.60 | 44.7% | 2,007 |
NSR | 23.49 | 33.05 | 40.7% | 1,267 |
IQNT | 16.48 | 22.90 | 39.0% | 567 |
MEET | 3.45 | 4.66 | 35.1% | 164 |
OUTR | 39.82 | 52.00 | 30.6% | 704 |
MSGN | 17.10 | 21.45 | 25.4% | 1,279 |
ENTA | 24.39 | 30.13 | 23.5% | 462 |
HSII | 18.38 | 22.25 | 21.1% | 350 |
FRAN | 10.49 | 12.66 | 20.7% | 431 |
VEC | 24.95 | 29.62 | 18.7% | 266 |
RHI | 40.31 | 45.90 | 13.9% | 5,376 |
TIVO | 10.02 | 11.34 | 13.2% | 984 |
CSCO | 27.94 | 31.50 | 12.7% | 145,323 |
USNA | 60.63 | 64.35 | 6.1% | 1,450 |
DLX | 64.35 | 68.10 | 5.8% | 3,188 |
SPOK | 16.52 | 17.25 | 4.4% | 352 |
TDC | 27.94 | 28.60 | 2.4% | 3,615 |
NHTC | 27.53 | 27.97 | 1.6% | 330 |
UTHR | 117.78 | 119.08 | 1.1% | 5,663 |
UNTD | 10.94 | 11.00 | 0.5% | 164 |
AVID | 5.90 | 5.36 | -9.2% | 234 |
AMAG | 20.96 | 18.80 | -10.3% | 725 |
CALM | 45.74 | 40.65 | -11.1% | 2,220 |
KORS | 41.79 | 36.76 | -12.0% | 7,638 |
AMCX | 63.18 | 53.04 | -16.0% | 4,592 |
PBI | 17.88 | 14.93 | -16.5% | 3,543 |
ICON | 7.56 | 6.18 | -18.3% | 368 |
GME | 27.22 | 22.22 | -18.4% | 2,989 |
VIAB | 43.13 | 35.13 | -18.5% | 17,528 |
GILD | 83.64 | 64.50 | -22.9% | 115,685 |
BKE | 22.51 | 16.80 | -25.4% | 1,184 |
PDLI | 3.29 | 2.39 | -27.4% | 549 |
CHKE | 13.85 | 9.40 | -32.1% | 121 |
FPRX | 44.90 | 28.95 | -35.5% | 1,266 |
SYNT | 29.81 | 18.16 | -39.1% | 3,860 |
WILN | 2.79 | 1.41 | -49.5% | 340 |
PMTS | 3.94 | 1.90 | -51.7% | 232 |
FIT | 14.32 | 5.31 | -62.9% | 3,076 |
Here is a listing of every portfolio I have tracked:
Date | MFI | R3K | Lead |
1/6/2006 | 16.0% | 10.9% | 1 |
2/17/2006 | 21.2% | 14.6% | 1 |
3/29/2006 | 13.0% | 9.6% | 1 |
4/7/2006 | 10.3% | 12.1% | 0 |
5/12/2006 | 20.4% | 18.6% | 1 |
5/31/2006 | 29.2% | 23.3% | 1 |
6/30/2006 | 22.4% | 20.0% | 1 |
7/31/2006 | 19.7% | 17.3% | 1 |
8/31/2006 | 13.0% | 13.3% | 0 |
9/28/2006 | 12.7% | 14.6% | 0 |
10/27/2006 | 10.3% | 12.0% | 0 |
11/29/2006 | -0.3% | 4.8% | 0 |
12/28/2006 | -6.9% | 3.4% | 0 |
1/26/2007 | -10.2% | -6.6% | 0 |
2/27/2007 | -3.7% | -1.0% | 0 |
3/26/2007 | -9.8% | -5.5% | 0 |
4/27/2007 | -10.9% | -5.0% | 0 |
5/29/2007 | -11.5% | -6.3% | 0 |
7/3/2007 | -30.0% | -15.6% | 0 |
7/30/2007 | -19.9% | -11.5% | 0 |
8/30/2007 | -12.5% | -8.7% | 0 |
9/27/2007 | -19.0% | -18.2% | 0 |
11/2/2007 | -40.4% | -34.3% | 0 |
11/28/2007 | -40.1% | -38.3% | 0 |
12/28/2007 | -36.3% | -40.0% | 1 |
1/25/2008 | -36.4% | -35.9% | 0 |
2/26/2008 | -51.7% | -41.5% | 0 |
3/24/2008 | -40.9% | -36.8% | 0 |
4/25/2008 | -25.6% | -31.0% | 1 |
5/28/2008 | -22.2% | -33.6% | 1 |
7/2/2008 | -11.7% | -25.3% | 1 |
7/29/2008 | -10.5% | -20.9% | 1 |
8/29/2008 | -13.8% | -17.9% | 1 |
9/26/2008 | -4.3% | -10.0% | 1 |
10/31/2008 | 18.7% | 13.9% | 1 |
11/26/2008 | 50.9% | 27.7% | 1 |
12/26/2008 | 48.9% | 32.3% | 1 |
1/23/2009 | 59.3% | 36.4% | 1 |
2/27/2009 | 92.8% | 55.6% | 1 |
3/27/2009 | 85.8% | 48.1% | 1 |
4/24/2009 | 69.7% | 45.8% | 1 |
5/29/2009 | 31.8% | 22.8% | 1 |
6/29/2009 | 21.3% | 24.0% | 0 |
7/29/2009 | 19.5% | 15.9% | 1 |
8/28/2009 | 7.4% | 8.8% | 0 |
9/25/2009 | 12.6% | 12.4% | 1 |
10/30/2009 | 22.7% | 18.3% | 1 |
11/27/2009 | 24.3% | 13.6% | 1 |
12/31/2009 | 23.7% | 18.1% | 1 |
1/22/2010 | 19.0% | 20.6% | 0 |
2/26/2010 | 18.6% | 23.6% | 0 |
3/25/2010 | 10.0% | 15.4% | 0 |
4/23/2010 | 7.1% | 11.4% | 0 |
5/28/2010 | 19.3% | 25.4% | 0 |
6/29/2010 | 16.7% | 25.7% | 0 |
7/29/2010 | 5.4% | 20.1% | 0 |
9/2/2010 | 7.3% | 10.1% | 0 |
9/24/2010 | -4.3% | 0.3% | 0 |
10/29/2010 | -2.9% | 10.4% | 0 |
11/26/2010 | -8.5% | 1.4% | 0 |
1/3/2011 | -11.4% | 0.1% | 0 |
1/28/2011 | -7.6% | 4.9% | 0 |
2/25/2011 | -5.5% | 5.0% | 0 |
3/24/2011 | -4.4% | 7.4% | 0 |
4/21/2011 | -16.0% | 3.2% | 0 |
5/27/2011 | -12.0% | -0.4% | 0 |
6/24/2011 | -9.5% | 5.0% | 0 |
7/29/2011 | -4.3% | 8.1% | 0 |
8/26/2011 | 12.0% | 21.6% | 0 |
9/30/2011 | 23.5% | 29.6% | 0 |
10/28/2011 | 0.4% | 11.5% | 0 |
11/25/2011 | 13.9% | 24.0% | 0 |
12/29/2011 | 9.9% | 15.9% | 0 |
1/27/2012 | 7.4% | 16.6% | 0 |
2/24/2012 | 7.8% | 13.3% | 0 |
3/23/2012 | 9.1% | 15.2% | 0 |
4/27/2012 | 10.5% | 15.3% | 0 |
5/25/2012 | 26.5% | 27.5% | 0 |
6/22/2012 | 26.1% | 24.6% | 1 |
7/27/2012 | 30.4% | 25.7% | 1 |
8/24/2012 | 26.0% | 19.8% | 1 |
9/28/2012 | 39.3% | 22.1% | 1 |
10/26/2012 | 48.3% | 28.9% | 1 |
11/23/2012 | 45.7% | 32.1% | 1 |
12/31/2012 | 52.3% | 33.0% | 1 |
1/25/2013 | 39.5% | 22.0% | 1 |
2/22/2013 | 46.5% | 26.4% | 1 |
3/28/2013 | 40.1% | 21.2% | 1 |
4/26/2013 | 35.0% | 20.5% | 1 |
5/24/2013 | 20.4% | 19.2% | 1 |
6/28/2013 | 26.9% | 24.1% | 1 |
7/29/2013 | 17.8% | 19.0% | 0 |
8/30/2013 | 17.5% | 24.6% | 0 |
9/27/2013 | 12.9% | 17.7% | 0 |
10/25/2013 | 11.8% | 15.4% | 0 |
11/29/2013 | 12.3% | 15.6% | 0 |
12/31/2013 | 12.7% | 11.9% | 1 |
1/31/2014 | 14.2% | 13.0% | 1 |
2/28/2014 | 15.4% | 13.9% | 1 |
3/28/2014 | 6.1% | 12.3% | 0 |
4/25/2014 | 8.6% | 15.8% | 0 |
5/30/2014 | 5.9% | 11.7% | 0 |
6/27/2014 | 2.5% | 9.2% | 0 |
7/25/2014 | 3.3% | 8.7% | 0 |
8/29/2014 | -2.2% | 1.0% | 0 |
9/26/2014 | -0.6% | -0.9% | 1 |
10/31/2014 | 4.3% | 4.4% | 0 |
11/28/2014 | -2.9% | 2.9% | 0 |
12/31/2014 | -9.3% | 0.3% | 0 |
1/30/2015 | -12.4% | -2.8% | 0 |
2/27/2015 | -19.0% | -7.3% | 0 |
3/27/2015 | -17.1% | -1.9% | 0 |
4/24/2015 | -15.4% | -0.8% | 0 |
5/29/2015 | -14.1% | 0.1% | 0 |
6/26/2015 | -8.7% | 0.4% | 0 |
7/30/2015 | 3.96% | 4.02% | 0 |
8/28/2015 | 5.6% | 10.2% | 0 |
9/25/2015 | 6.5% | 13.8% | 0 |
10/30/2015 | 2.0% | 4.0% | 0 |
11/27/2015 | 8.9% | 8.4% | 1 |
12/31/2015 | 13.7% | 12.6% | 1 |
1/29/2016 | 22.6% | 22.4% | 1 |
2/26/2016 | 27.8% | 25.4% | 1 |
3/24/2016 | 26.5% | 19.6% | 1 |
4/22/2016 | 13.7% | 14.8% | 0 |
5/27/2016 | 15.1% | 17.7% | 0 |
6/30/2016 | 17.8% | 17.5% | 1 |
7/29/2016 | 12.4% | 13.0% | 0 |
8/26/2016 | 10.7% | 12.9% | 0 |
9/30/2016 | 10.8% | 12.6% | 0 |
10/28/2016 | 10.5% | 15.2% | 0 |
11/25/2016 | 0.7% | 9.4% | 0 |
12/30/2016 | -1.8% | 8.0% | 0 |
1/27/2017 | -1.6% | 5.4% | 0 |
2/24/2017 | -0.2% | 2.1% | 0 |
3/31/2017 | -1.5% | 2.2% | 0 |
4/28/2017 | -1.1% | 1.2% | 0 |
Subsets
I also have tracked 3 subsets of the larger portfolios: (1) dividend stocks (those with a yield per Yahoo of at least 2.6%), (2) new stocks (those new to the tracking portfolios in past 12 months and Dogs. It is like the dogs of the Dow in that you take the worst five performing stocks from the prior year that renew or all those that dropped more that 29%. The dividend portfolio was solid, up about 18%. The Dogs portfolio underperformed, up just 9%. The New approach dreadful, down 14%. I think starting now, I am going to drop the new analysis and dogs analysis. They are both a fair amount of work and they do not see especially successful. Here were the "dividend" stocks:
Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change | Mkt Cap | Yield |
BBY | 31.08 | 58.97 | 89.8% | 10,365 | 3.6% |
BKE | 22.51 | 16.80 | -25.4% | 1,184 | 4.4% |
BPT | 12.06 | 20.20 | 67.5% | 300 | 23.6% |
CALM | 45.74 | 40.65 | -11.1% | 2,220 | 3.8% |
CPLA | 51.47 | 87.90 | 70.8% | 613 | 3.0% |
CSCO | 27.94 | 31.50 | 12.7% | 145,323 | 3.7% |
GME | 27.22 | 22.22 | -18.4% | 2,989 | 5.4% |
HPQ | 12.73 | 18.47 | 45.1% | 22,508 | 3.9% |
HSII | 18.38 | 22.25 | 21.1% | 350 | 2.8% |
IILG | 14.00 | 26.85 | 91.8% | 817 | 3.4% |
IQNT | 16.48 | 22.90 | 39.0% | 567 | 3.9% |
OUTR | 39.82 | 52.00 | 30.6% | 704 | 6.0% |
PBI | 17.88 | 14.93 | -16.5% | 3,543 | 4.2% |
PDLI | 3.29 | 2.39 | -27.4% | 549 | 6.1% |
PMTS | 3.94 | 1.90 | -51.7% | 232 | 4.6% |
SPOK | 16.52 | 17.25 | 4.4% | 352 | 3.0% |
VIAB | 43.13 | 35.13 | -18.5% | 17,528 | 3.7% |
Here are the dogs:
Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change |
ACHI | 1.76 | 3.47 | 97.2% |
BKE | 22.51 | 16.80 | -25.4% |
ENTA | 24.39 | 30.13 | 23.5% |
GME | 27.22 | 22.22 | -18.4% |
OUTR | 39.82 | 52.00 | 30.6% |
PDLI | 3.29 | 2.39 | -27.4% |
VIAB | 43.13 | 35.13 | -18.5% |
Here are the new stocks:
Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change |
FRAN | 10.49 | 12.66 | 20.7% |
PMTS | 3.94 | 1.90 | -51.7% |
AVID | 5.90 | 5.36 | -9.2% |
AMCX | 63.18 | 53.04 | -16.0% |
Finally, I like to track cash as it is more "honest" than percentages as if you go up by 25% and then down by 25%, that is a different result than up by 5% then down by 5%. So I track what you would have today if you had spread $100,000 over the first twelve portfolios evenly. I think it is obvious why my formula approach is a function of dividend subset.
Category | Value |
Total | 197,717 |
Total Russell 3K | 234,113 |
New | 151,047 |
Dogs | 235,793 |
Dividend | 441,515 |
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