New MFI Formula Tranche - 4/1/19

New MFI Formula Tranche - 4/1/19

It is that time again.  I have an old tranche wrapping up as it hit it's one year anniversary and a new tranche starting.

The 4/1/2018 MFI Formula tranche was unimpressive.  Down 0.3%, with TUP being the major albatross/stinker, down over 40%.

As I noted over the weekend, it has been tough sledding of late.

Here is the expiring tranche:

4/3/2018	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AMGN	$166.46	$189.90	$5.28	17.3%	10.6%
VIAB	$29.20	$28.07	$0.80	-1.1%	10.6%
GILD	$72.71	$65.01	$2.34	-7.4%	10.6%
TUP	$47.32	$25.58	$2.31	-41.1%	10.6%
EGOV	$13.29	$17.09	$0.32	31.0%	10.6%
Totals				-0.3%	10.6%

As you can see, not a good outcome.  As my readers know, the 5 picks are driven by a formula and a random number generator.  This time, Mr Random was not kind to me.  The 8 stocks I didn't pick last year were up 11% (NTRI up 60%).

And the runoff, the five stocks I had from 4/1/17 were up another 18% (SYNT was up 60% and CSCO 35%).  So there were winners out there, just not in my portfolio.

Here is a listing of all my closed MFI Formula tranches:

10/1/2014 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BAH	$23.52	$26.21	$0.50	13.5%	-0.6%
BKE	$45.55	$36.97	$3.68	-10.8%	-0.6%
CA	$27.87	$27.30	$1.00	1.5%	-0.6%
GME	$41.70	$41.21	$1.41	2.2%	-0.6%
NUS	$44.56	$41.28	$1.40	-4.2%	-0.6%
Totals				0.5%	-0.6%
12/31/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CA	$30.83	$29.26	$1.00	-1.8%	-0.3%
CSCO	$28.36	$27.70	$0.82	0.6%	-0.3%
RGR	$34.81	$60.08	$1.10	75.7%	-0.3%
GME	$34.21	$28.71	$1.44	-11.9%	-0.3%
IQNT	$19.87	$17.78	$0.60	-7.5%	-0.3%
Totals				11.0%	-0.3%
3/31/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
HRB	$31.99	$26.33	$0.80	-15.2%	-1.1%
GME	$37.69	$32.12	$1.45	-10.9%	-1.1%
KING	$15.85	$18.00	$0.00	13.6%	-1.1%
NSU	$3.43	$3.24	$0.16	-0.8%	-1.1%
PPC	$22.65	$25.40	$0.00	12.1%	-1.1%
Totals				-0.2%	-1.1%
7/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$46.45	$25.51	$1.96	-40.9%	-0.3%
CA	$29.34	$31.53	$1.01	10.9%	-0.3%
MSFT	$44.42	$49.29	$1.39	14.1%	-0.3%
QCOM	$62.95	$53.45	$1.97	-12.0%	-0.3%
VIAB	$64.75	$40.81	$1.60	-34.5%	-0.3%
Totals				-12.5%	-0.3%
10/1/2015	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$36.83	$24.03	$1.98	-29.4%	13.6%
IQNT	$21.96	$16.14	$0.60	-23.8%	13.6%
QCOM	$53.45	$68.50	$2.02	31.9%	13.6%
CSCO	$26.37	$31.72	$0.94	23.9%	13.6%
CA	$27.30	$33.08	$1.01	24.9%	13.6%
Totals				5.5%	13.6%
12/31/15 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BBY	$30.31	$42.67	$1.57	46.0%	12.1%
GME	$28.34	$25.45	$1.48	-5.0%	12.1%
ILG	$15.89	$18.17	$0.48	17.4%	12.1%
PPC	$22.22	$19.14	$2.75	-1.5%	12.1%
VIAB	$40.93	$35.40	$1.20	-10.6%	12.1%
Totals				9.3%	12.1%
4/1/16 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CALM	$51.27	$37.55	$0.44	-25.9%	18.0%
HPQ	$12.10	$17.88	$0.51	51.9%	18.0%
TIME	$15.24	$19.35	$0.76	31.9%	18.0%
ILG	$13.85	$20.96	$0.51	55.0%	18.0%
XPER	$30.79	$33.95	$0.80	12.9%	18.0%
Totals				25.2%	18.0%
7/1/2016	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
ILG	$16.76	$27.49	$0.54	67.2%	16.8%
VIAB	$44.00	$33.57	$0.80	-21.9%	16.8%
CPLA	$53.22	$85.60	$1.62	63.9%	16.8%
HRB	$23.62	$30.91	$0.90	34.7%	16.8%
PBI	$17.69	$15.10	$0.75	-10.4%	16.8%
Totals				26.7%	16.8%
10/3/2016	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CPLA	$58.15	$70.15	$1.64	23.5%	18.8%
LDOS	$43.01	$59.22	$1.28	40.7%	18.8%
GME	$27.70	$20.66	$1.51	-20.0%	18.8%
PBI	$18.15	$14.01	$0.75	-18.7%	18.8%
CSCO	$31.72	$33.63	$1.10	9.5%	18.8%
Totals				7.0%	18.8%
12/30/2016	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
GILD	$71.69	$71.64	$2.08	2.8%	20.7%
HPQ	$15.00	$21.01	$0.53	43.6%	20.7%
TGNA	$21.33	$23.69	$0.35	12.7%	20.7%
CA	$31.99	$33.28	$1.02	7.2%	20.7%
SYNT	$19.79	$22.99	$0.00	16.2%	20.7%
Totals				16.5%	20.7%
4/1/2017	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BKE	$18.45	$22.00	$2.75	34.1%	11.0%
CSCO	$33.76	$41.01	$1.16	24.9%	11.0%
GILD	$67.50	$73.14	$2.13	11.5%	11.0%
OMC	$85.53	$71.27	$2.25	-14.0%	11.0%
SYNT	$16.76	$25.16	$0.00	50.1%	11.0%
Totals				21.3%	11.0%
7/1/2017	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CSCO	$30.98	$42.67	$1.24	41.7%	17.4%
GME	$20.95	$15.47	$1.52	-18.9%	17.4%
HPQ	$17.60	$23.37	$0.53	35.8%	17.4%
RGR	$60.70	$56.70	$0.99	-5.0%	17.4%
SYNT	$16.21	$37.77	$0.00	133.0%	17.4%
Totals				37.3%	17.4%
10/1/2017	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
DIN	$43.14	$79.32	$2.86	90.5%	17.4%
GILD	$82.85	$77.96	$2.23	-3.2%	17.4%
GME	$20.50	$15.28	$1.52	-18.0%	17.4%
HPQ	$20.22	$25.61	$0.53	29.3%	17.4%
OMC	$74.80	$68.07	$2.35	-5.9%	17.4%
Totals				18.5%	17.4%
1/2/2018	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AMGN	$177.11	$192.47	$5.28	11.7%	-7.2%
GME	$18.06	$12.56	$1.52	-22.0%	-7.2%
GILD	$71.64	$62.01	$2.28	-10.3%	-7.2%
HRB	$26.34	$25.05	$0.99	-1.1%	-7.2%
OMC	$72.81	$72.74	$1.80	2.4%	-7.2%
Totals				-3.9%	-7.2%
4/3/2018	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AMGN	$166.46	$189.90	$5.28	17.3%	10.6%
VIAB	$29.20	$28.07	$0.80	-1.1%	10.6%
GILD	$72.71	$65.01	$2.34	-7.4%	10.6%
TUP	$47.32	$25.58	$2.31	-41.1%	10.6%
EGOV	$13.29	$17.09	$0.32	31.0%	10.6%
Totals				-0.3%	10.6%

New Tranche

Here are the stocks that were identified by my formula approach on Monday morning:

Ticker	Market Cap	Price	Dividend	Yield
HRB	4,909	23.94	0.80	4.18%
DLX	2,024	43.72	1.20	2.74%
GME	1,038	10.16	1.52	14.96%
GILD	83,343	65.01	2.34	3.60%
EAF	3,716	12.79	0.32	2.50%
HPQ	29,871	19.43	0.60	3.08%
KLAC	18,074	119.41	3.00	2.51%
LRCX	28,794	179.01	4.40	2.46%
OMC	16,394	72.99	2.45	3.36%
STX	13,493	47.89	2.52	5.26%
TUP	1,245	25.58	2.31	9.03%
VIAB	11,315	28.07	0.80	2.85%

Note the TUP dividend isn't adjusted for the recent cut, but they still qualified.

Then here was what Random generator gave me:

Random #	Stock
7	KLAC
4	GILD
1	HRB
12	VIAB
2	DLX

Finally,  here is tranche with my purchase prices (I bought around 1 pm - so most of rally was done):

4/1/2019	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VIAB	$28.90	$28.89	$0.00	0.0%	0.1%
DLX	$44.50	$44.69	$0.00	0.4%	0.1%
HRB	$24.31	$24.33	$0.00	0.1%	0.1%
GILD	$66.00	$65.88	$0.00	-0.2%	0.1%
KLAC	$122.10	$122.16	$0.00	0.0%	0.1%
Totals				0.1%	0.1%