Final Week For May 2nd Tranche

Final Week For May 2nd Tranche

For whatever reason, I pick poor stocks in May.  Last year was no exception.  My five picks in my MFI select tranche are in the green, but not by much. 

The albatross has been two stinker picks, CAAP and FTSI.  They are both down more than 30%.  Of course, they also illustrate that timing is everything.  If I had bought them December 31st, they'd by +17% and +50%.

Stock	Start	Current	Dividend	Change
AGX	37.84	50.39	0.25	33.8%
WDC	36.97	53.94	0.50	47.3%
MU	31.73	43.03	-	35.6%
SGH	29.70	22.82	-	-23.2%
DISCA	24.74	30.38	-	22.8%
TGNA	10.87	15.81	0.07	46.1%
CJREF	3.50	5.75	0.06	66.0%
VIAB	25.70	29.70	0.20	16.3%
ICHR	16.30	25.32	-	55.3%
DXC	53.17	64.92	0.19	22.5%
AMCX	54.88	59.33	-	8.1%
GME	12.62	9.01	0.38	-25.6%
CAAP	6.63	7.75	-	16.9%
FTSI	7.11	10.63	-	49.5%

This table shows my current MFI Select stocks and how they have done in 2019 (excluding new picks on 2/1).

May Portfolio

Here are the 5 picks hitting anniversary:

5/2/2018	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CAAP	$12.19	$7.75	$0.00	-36.4%	12.4%
TGNA	$10.51	$15.81	$0.28	53.1%	12.4%
DISCA	$23.85	$30.38	$0.00	27.4%	12.4%
FTSI	$19.39	$10.63	$0.00	-45.2%	12.4%
ICHR	$21.96	$25.32	$0.00	15.3%	12.4%
Totals				2.8%	12.4%

If I had bought these 5 names on 12/31, I'd be up 33%+. Timing is everything my friend.

New Picks

AS I ratchet up MFI exposure, I will be adding almost a 50% increase in May.  THis sounds like a lot (and it is) but frankly just gets May back to where some of the other tranches are as May has been so mediocre:

Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
MFI Overall Gain	162.2%	355.1%	161.9%	39.0%	179.5%
R3K Overall Gain	133.3%	139.2%	113.9%	99.8%	121.6%
Annualized IRR	15.5%	26.5%	16.7%	5.7%	16.1%

This table really highlights the May Tranche under performance.  Up only 39% since May 2013, an annualized IRR of 5.7%.  The other three quarterly tranches are averaging 19.6% per year.  That is a huge differential over 6+ years.

Here are stocks I am considering (I will pick 7):

AMCX

MO

HRB

DLX

EAF

NUS

VIAB

CBS

MTOR

WW

YY

STMP

KHC

Stay tuned