Say Good Bye To 2018

Say Good-Bye To 2018

It was not a good year for me on the investing front.  Terrible in fact.  I will publish final numbers tomorrow, but I have been "diving" this past quarter.

But, as I have said before... a drop in the market actually can be good if you are a net buyer of stocks.  If you make the assumption that the stock market will be X in 2030, irregardless of how it gets there - then you are better off to have some drops along the way and use those as buying (not selling) opportunities.  And I have been selling nothing.

I read a great blog this mornings that comments that this quarter was the 14th worst quarter since 1926.  Guess what?  The five year return after the 13 worse quarters on average has been +91%.  It is no fun going through these bumpy times, but a longer term view really can be invaluable.  Here is a link to that blog (
Buying When Stocks Are Down Big).

My Baker's Dirty Dozen

As a reminder, on 12/21 I created a Baker's Dirty Dozen stock list, of stocks I felt had been way oversold during 2018.  So far, they have done well since I created list:

Stock	Start	Current	Dividend	Gain/Loss
AMCX	52.23	54.72	-	4.8%
AMAT	30.31	32.38	-	6.8%
DLX	37.11	38.34	-	3.3%
DXC	50.48	52.95	-	4.9%
KLAC	85.67	88.63	-	3.5%
LRCX	127.16	135.42	-	6.5%
MU	30.32	31.57	-	4.1%
SGH	28.75	29.64	-	3.1%
WDC	35.90	36.74	-	2.3%
ECA	5.38	5.82	-	8.2%
GLNG	21.72	21.63	-	-0.4%
T	28.31	28.46	-	0.5%
TGP	11.82	10.80	-	-8.6%
Total				3.0%

I do believe there is gold in them thar hills for those with the courage to find it.  I would not go "all in", always best to keep some powder dry as stocks can always drop more.  But if you have a 3 to 5 year time horizon and you buy quality names, my belief is that everything will be alright.

Have a safe and happy New Year!