Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Thoughts About Upcoming Tranche

Thoughts About Upcoming Tranche

Well, it is October 24th.  So I only have about 3 weeks left on my November 15th, 2017 MFI Select Tranche.

The recent choppiness in the market has created some pretty good opportunities (in my opinion) and it also seems to be placing a greater emphasis on value.  In the past month, my two MFI portfolios are down 2%, which sounds bad... but the Russell 3000 is down 6.5%.

Here is the current tranche coming up on anniversary:


11/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MSGN  $16.67 $27.66 $0.00 65.9% 7.8%
 CELG  $100.60 $79.77 $0.00 -20.7% 7.8%
 EVC  $5.78 $5.01 $0.20 -9.9% 7.8%
 SIMO  $46.88 $42.31 $0.90 -7.8% 7.8%
 VIAB  $24.41 $32.71 $0.80 37.3% 7.8%
 Totals  13.0% 7.8%


Wow, pretty good right?  Sometimes I surprise to the upside.  MSGN has been nothing short of fabulous.  VIAB has been strong as well... the media plays apparently were not dead money (FOXA, one of the 5 runner up stocks that I almost picked is up 60% as well).

Here are the names I have put on watch list:

AEISAGXCASADLXFTSIMUQIWISGHSHI and WDC.

SHI is a Chinese petrochemical company. I kind of want to pick one Chinese company as I feel a bunch of them have been way oversold.  MU is a much hated company right now, if they stay under $40, I will almost certainly pick them.  I also love AGX... so that is a likely shoo-in unless something happens.  I actually wrote an analysis on AGX, I think a lot of good stuff is not being priced into their stock.

DLX is much beaten down and is almost eligible as a MFI Formula (dividend yield is up to 2.3%).  They are not "sexy", but they are steady eddy.

AEIS, SGH and WDC are all tech plays and all are WAY off 52 week highs:

AEIS: $95 to $45
SGH:  $57 to $29
WDC:  $107 to $56

CASA is a stock with some growth potential in broadband space, they are also beaten down.  And FTSI is in oil services space, they went public at $19 and now trade under $12.  CASA and FTSI are both recent IPOs.  FTSI makes me a bit nervous as I believe activity is slowing down in Permian Basin, but it will likely pick up in back half of 2019 as more pipelines are built out... so question is when do they hit bottom and start going up?

Stay tuned.

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