Today is likely going to be a rugged day as futures are pointing lower and a bunch of my stocks had disappointing earnings (FSLR and WDC for example).
I feel as though I am having my own personal bear market. I don't think it is just me, I suspect many other investors are in same boat as the rise of the market in 2018 has not had a lot of breadth and Russell 2000 and Value indices are really struggling.
I listed my top 20 stock holdings (many of these are not MFI stocks as I tend to be less concentrated in specific MFI stocks, so Energy and Shipping are disproportionate). Also I did not buy many of these at 52 week high or even at start of year (like T and CJREF) and many I have been adding as share prices decline (like ANW and TGP).
Finally, I am too lazy to add in dividends... that would surely help a bit. Done with my laundry list of caveats, here are the 20 stocks:
| Stock | January | Current | Change | 2018 High | From High |
| GILD | 74.05 | 68.62 | -7.3% | 88.80 | -22.7% |
| TGP | 20.50 | 14.53 | -29.1% | 21.50 | -32.4% |
| LADR | 13.50 | 17.11 | 26.7% | 17.62 | -2.9% |
| TK | 9.42 | 6.47 | -31.3% | 10.69 | -39.5% |
| OXY | 73.98 | 68.65 | -7.2% | 86.84 | -20.9% |
| CJREF | 9.42 | 3.89 | -58.7% | 9.42 | -58.7% |
| VIAB | 30.51 | 29.68 | -2.7% | 34.28 | -13.4% |
| T | 39.06 | 29.88 | -23.5% | 39.16 | -23.7% |
| NMM | 2.37 | 1.59 | -32.9% | 2.55 | -37.6% |
| ECA | 13.75 | 10.54 | -23.3% | 14.21 | -25.8% |
| KMI | 18.87 | 16.58 | -12.1% | 19.63 | -15.5% |
| AMGN | 175.35 | 188.10 | 7.3% | 208.68 | -9.9% |
| CTL | 18.65 | 21.07 | 13.0% | 23.96 | -12.1% |
| GLNG | 30.15 | 25.75 | -14.6% | 34.68 | -25.7% |
| CPLP | 3.31 | 2.71 | -18.1% | 3.57 | -24.1% |
| GME | 17.96 | 14.44 | -19.6% | 19.96 | -27.7% |
| GLOP-PB | 25.49 | 25.21 | -1.1% | 26.30 | -4.1% |
| KCLI | 45.20 | 39.01 | -13.7% | 45.20 | -13.7% |
| IPG | 20.25 | 23.33 | 15.2% | 25.33 | -7.9% |
| ANW | 4.55 | 1.01 | -77.8% | 5.00 | -79.8% |
| Average | -15.6% | -24.9% |
So average stock is down 15.6% during 2018. And they are down 24.9% from 2018 highs. Only 4 of the 20 are up in 2018 (5 are up if you include dividends). And that is before today, which may shave off some more.
Some of these names can certainly go lower in a crash. But when I look at these stocks and compare how their prices have fared in 2018 with their fundamentals, many look so so cheap. I mean ECA and OXY are both down in 2018 even though oil prices are up strongly. TK and TGP are down 30% even though LNG shipping rates are way up and their cash flow visibility looks strong.
More to come.
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