Good morning everyone. The drama-rama continues in Washington, whipsawing the markets. Is it all just "negotiating" or will neither side back down, which could have adverse impact on many parties? Enquiring minds want to know!
I am in the middle of reading "Predicting The Markets", by Edward Yardeni. He spends some time going over historical events and how they impacted the economy. A key theme is how free trade is a win-win. He does say, "my research led me to conclude that the Great Depression was caused by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of June, 1930.".
So a tariff act can have a domino effect and dampen global trade. I do agree that trade is not fair right now. But I am not sure that is the cause of of deficits with other countries, our products we manufacture here are more expensive, irregardless of some barriers to entry. Ok, enough economics, I am not an economist, although I am the son of an economist, so perhaps I did pick up a little bit at the dinner table growing up.
Welcome to the almost world-famous MFI Diary. This is a diary I have been maintaining since February 2006 (damn, that is a long time) tracking my "adventures" in investing real money in the methods discussed in "The Little Book That Beats The Markets". I also spend some time discussing my MFI (Magic Formula Investing) Index and various MFI tracking portfolios that I have created over time.
And as a free bonus, I also discuss how my non-MFI investments are doing (generally poorly) in 2nd half of my blog.
I did create a guide recently for new readers to my blog that point you to some key/interesting posts (ar as Artie Johnson used tosay, for the old timers out there, Very interesting). I encourage you to give it a whirl (Guide To New Readers). (PS - I continue to struggle to make this link work. You can instead go to Blog archive on left margin of this blog and you will find a link in October 2017). Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a non-economist, non-CFA with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor (pretty clear as I end 1st quarter in the red overall). You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.
Onwards.
Last Week
I have ironically noted recently that I out-perform the benchmarks when the markets drop and underperform when the markets rise. In investing terms, that means my portfolio tends to have a beta less than 1. That also means I had a great day (relatively) on Friday, when the markets sold off sharply from US/Chinese rhetoric over tariffs.
I did start a new tranche in my MFI Formula portfolio this week, more on that briefly. I did rearrange the "ahem" deck chairs some on my shipping stocks and I began selling my BYBK. Exciting times. Oh, I also finalized my 2017 taxes => I need a drink.
Here is where my various portfolios and benchmarks stand as of end of day Friday:
| Component | YTD | Week Change |
| Overall | -3.3% | -0.3% |
| MFI Select | +0.2% | -1.5% |
| MFI Formula | +1.4% | +0.1% |
| MFI Combined | +0.8% | -0.7% |
| Miscellaneous | -9.9% | +0.4% |
| Dividend | -3.4% | -0.2% |
| Dividend Index | -3.8% | -0.2% |
| R3K Index | -2.1% | -1.4% |
| Blended Index | -2.8% | -0.9% |
| MFI Index | +7.5% | +0.4% |
| GARIX | -1.0% | -1.2% |
So I was down 30 basis points on the week versus blended benchmark being down 90. Not exactly causing my pulse to race. Amazingly, the MFI Index was actually positive this week.Whoa, I had not noticed that. Let us look at what happened (recall the MFI Index is a basket of 50 stocks from the official screen that I reconstitute once a year... kind of like Russell 3000 Index).
| Stock | Start | 31-Dec | Current | YTD Change | Last week |
| AMAG | 13.25 | 20.15 | 20.55 | 55.1% | 2.0% |
| AMCX | 54.08 | 51.70 | 51.67 | -4.5% | -0.1% |
| ABC | 91.82 | 86.59 | 85.79 | -6.6% | -0.9% |
| AMGN | 173.90 | 171.80 | 169.46 | -2.6% | -1.4% |
| AGX | 45.00 | 42.95 | 43.15 | -4.1% | 0.5% |
| BIVV | 53.92 | 105.00 | 105.00 | 94.7% | 0.0% |
| HRB | 26.22 | 25.65 | 25.75 | -1.8% | 0.4% |
| BPT | 20.10 | 25.15 | 26.00 | 29.4% | 3.4% |
| ABCD | 5.68 | 11.20 | 11.10 | 95.4% | -0.9% |
| CPLA | 77.40 | 87.78 | 88.88 | 14.8% | 1.3% |
| CASA | 17.76 | 29.34 | 27.51 | 54.9% | -6.2% |
| CSCO | 38.30 | 43.18 | 41.35 | 8.0% | -4.2% |
| CNCE | 25.87 | 22.90 | 19.01 | -26.5% | -17.0% |
| CJREF | 9.21 | 4.89 | 6.01 | -34.8% | 22.9% |
| DLX | 76.84 | 74.31 | 75.04 | -2.3% | 1.0% |
| DIN | 50.73 | 66.21 | 72.32 | 42.6% | 9.2% |
| DISCA | 22.38 | 21.43 | 22.62 | 1.1% | 5.6% |
| EGRX | 53.42 | 52.69 | 52.00 | -2.7% | -1.3% |
| EVC | 7.15 | 4.75 | 4.95 | -30.8% | 4.2% |
| ESRX | 74.64 | 69.08 | 67.88 | -9.1% | -1.7% |
| GME | 17.95 | 12.96 | 13.77 | -23.3% | 6.3% |
| GILD | 71.64 | 75.96 | 73.98 | 3.3% | -2.6% |
| HSII | 24.55 | 31.38 | 30.43 | 24.0% | -3.0% |
| HPQ | 21.01 | 22.05 | 20.91 | -0.5% | -5.2% |
| INVA | 14.19 | 16.67 | 16.46 | 16.0% | -1.3% |
| IDCC | 76.15 | 73.95 | 75.75 | -0.5% | 2.4% |
| IPG | 20.16 | 23.24 | 23.36 | 15.9% | 0.5% |
| KLAC | 105.07 | 109.60 | 104.66 | -0.4% | -4.5% |
| LEE | 2.35 | 1.95 | 2.05 | -12.8% | 5.1% |
| MCFT | 22.22 | 25.20 | 24.90 | 12.1% | -1.2% |
| MPAA | 24.99 | 21.43 | 21.91 | -12.3% | 2.2% |
| MSGN | 20.25 | 22.60 | 22.55 | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| NHTC | 15.19 | 19.14 | 18.97 | 24.9% | -0.9% |
| NLS | 13.35 | 13.45 | 13.75 | 3.0% | 2.2% |
| EGOV | 16.60 | 13.30 | 13.75 | -17.2% | 3.4% |
| OMC | 72.83 | 73.27 | 72.34 | -0.7% | -1.3% |
| PTN | 0.86 | 1.09 | 1.23 | 43.2% | 12.8% |
| PDLI | 2.74 | 2.94 | 3.02 | 10.2% | 2.7% |
| PCOA | 575.00 | 645.00 | 650.00 | 13.0% | 0.8% |
| PBI | 11.18 | 11.08 | 10.92 | -2.3% | -1.4% |
| SRNE | 3.80 | 5.15 | 5.70 | 50.0% | 10.7% |
| SP | 37.10 | 35.60 | 35.40 | -4.6% | -0.6% |
| SYNT | 22.99 | 25.53 | 25.06 | 9.0% | -1.8% |
| TGNA | 14.08 | 11.46 | 11.03 | -21.7% | -3.8% |
| MEET | 2.82 | 2.09 | 1.94 | -31.2% | -7.2% |
| TVTY | 36.55 | 39.65 | 39.50 | 8.1% | -0.4% |
| TRNC | 17.59 | 16.42 | 15.95 | -9.3% | -2.9% |
| UTHR | 147.95 | 112.36 | 110.26 | -25.5% | -1.9% |
| VEC | 30.85 | 37.24 | 37.18 | 20.5% | -0.2% |
| VIAB | 30.81 | 31.26 | 31.10 | 0.9% | -0.5% |
So you can see CJREF popped 23%, SRNE was up almost 11% and PTN 13%. Eyeballing it, these definitely roll up to a positive week for MFI Index. You can also see how the names are doing year to date, up a snappy 7.5% in aggregate.
MFI Select
Regular readers of my blog (and thanks for stopping by regularly!) know that I have two real $ MFI portfolios: Select and Formula. Select consists of 4 tranches of 5 stocks each, that I buy and hold for a year. I started this approach in August 2012 after quitting MFI for a year (yes, it can be frustrating). As the name suggests, Select has a very freeform approach and I essentially pick whatever stocks I want. I use the official screen, but I also run my own screen... which you can see a top 200 run I published from it earlier this week. I try to focus on stocks that fit the mold of Jake's Bubble Gum shop, not one hit wonders. Here are my 4 open tranches:
| 5/6/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| WSTC | $24.15 | $23.50 | $0.00 | -2.7% | 10.3% |
| TGNA | $25.75 | $20.50 | $0.28 | -19.3% | 10.3% |
| TIME | $15.05 | $18.50 | $0.08 | 23.5% | 10.3% |
| MSGN | $23.55 | $22.55 | $0.00 | -4.2% | 10.3% |
| QCOM | $54.93 | $53.12 | $2.28 | 0.9% | 10.3% |
| Totals | -0.4% | 10.3% | |||
| 8/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| GHC | $591.10 | $599.10 | $2.54 | 1.8% | 7.3% |
| ICHR | $19.80 | $23.24 | $0.00 | 17.4% | 7.3% |
| MD | $43.00 | $54.67 | $0.00 | 27.1% | 7.3% |
| SIMO | $43.05 | $47.68 | $0.60 | 12.1% | 7.3% |
| RHI | $44.15 | $57.15 | $0.76 | 31.2% | 7.3% |
| Totals | 17.9% | 7.3% | |||
| 11/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MSGN | $16.67 | $22.55 | $0.00 | 35.3% | 2.3% |
| CELG | $100.60 | $86.95 | $0.00 | -13.6% | 2.3% |
| EVC | $5.78 | $4.90 | $0.10 | -13.5% | 2.3% |
| SIMO | $46.88 | $47.68 | $0.30 | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| VIAB | $24.41 | $30.90 | $0.40 | 28.2% | 2.3% |
| Totals | 7.8% | 2.3% | |||
| 2/1/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $43.55 | $43.15 | $0.00 | -0.9% | -6.8% |
| CASA | $18.81 | $27.51 | $0.00 | 46.3% | -6.8% |
| KLAC | $109.80 | $104.07 | $0.59 | -4.7% | -6.8% |
| THO | $136.33 | $112.97 | $0.37 | -16.9% | -6.8% |
| WDC | $87.74 | $87.77 | $0.50 | 0.6% | -6.8% |
| Totals | 4.9% | -6.8% |
It was a tough week, down 1.5% officially and even a bit more when you consider my official number has a cash ballast. You can see the May tranche continues to be the laggard. Looking forward to retiring that in a month. I have some good ideas for new names. Here are the individual stocks for the week so you can see where the problem areas were:
| Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| MSGN | 22.60 | 22.55 | - | -0.2% |
| SIMO | 48.12 | 47.68 | - | -0.9% |
| VIAB | 29.20 | 30.90 | - | 5.8% |
| CASA | 29.34 | 27.51 | - | -6.2% |
| KLAC | 109.01 | 104.07 | - | -4.5% |
| THO | 115.17 | 112.97 | - | -1.9% |
| AGX | 42.95 | 43.15 | - | 0.5% |
| WDC | 92.27 | 87.77 | - | -4.9% |
| EVC | 4.70 | 4.90 | - | 4.3% |
| ICHR | 24.21 | 23.24 | - | -4.0% |
| CELG | 89.21 | 86.95 | - | -2.5% |
| RHI | 57.89 | 57.15 | - | -1.3% |
| MD | 55.63 | 54.67 | - | -1.7% |
| QCOM | 55.41 | 53.12 | - | -4.1% |
| GHC | 602.25 | 599.10 | - | -0.5% |
| TGNA | 20.83 | 20.50 | - | -1.6% |
Kind of across the board. The high tech names, CASA, KLAC, ICHR, WDC and QCOM seem dinged the most. VIAB seems to have its own drama-rama as Shari Redstone, controlling owner of CBS and VIAB has publicly said she wants the two to merge and then CBS says ok, but only at a price lower than VIAB's current price and they don't even give her a heads-up on that. I'm thinking that is not a great way for Moonves to keep his job.
Here is a table showing my Select performance back to inception:
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 17.9% | 7.8% | 4.9% | -0.4% | 7.2% |
| Previous Tranche | -0.1% | 42.6% | 74.9% | 19.1% | 34.7% |
| Tranche -2 | 2.8% | 8.0% | 10.7% | -25.2% | -0.9% |
| Tranche -3 | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | 18.3% | 21.2% |
| Tranche -4 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 33.0% | 24.3% |
| Tranche -5 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 0.0% | 34.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 117.3% | 361.9% | 236.7% | 39.6% | 188.9% |
| Current Balance | 54,337 | 115,480 | 84,168 | 34,890 | 288,876 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 7.3% | 2.3% | -6.8% | 10.3% | 3.2% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 105.5% | 109.7% | 88.0% | 75.9% | 94.8% |
| R3K Balance | 51,381 | 52,417 | 46,990 | 43,975 | 194,763 |
| Annualized IRR | 14.7% | 32.8% | 26.4% | 7.0% | 20.2% |
Annualized IRR still hanging by a thread to over 20%. That is frankly an almost impossible hurdle rate. Finally, here is a table that shows if you put $100,000 over my initial 4 tranches and just continuously reinvested with no funds added (not reality), how the $100,000 would have grown:
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| 1/1/2017 | 45.60% | 209,503 | 163,936 |
| 4/1/2017 | 55.70% | 229,473 | 173,735 |
| 7/1/2017 | 60.28% | 239,060 | 178,782 |
| 10/1/2017 | 75.60% | 262,489 | 186,886 |
| 1/1/2018 | 92.19% | 291,114 | 198,926 |
| 4/1/2018 | 96.21% | 293,665 | 197,451 |
| Current | 94.11% | 288,876 | 194,763 |
So a slight step back this week, but still massive win thus far. But I am down 6% since February 1st (of course Russell 3000 is down 7%).
MFI Formula
My second real-money MFI portfolio is MFI Formula. It is exact opposite of Select, here all my stocks are picked via a formula. If you want to see the exact steps I take, read my blog posting "My newest tranche, April 3rd, 2018". I started this approach in October 2014. It takes advantage of my analysis that shows that dividend paying MFI stocks have done better than non-dividend paying MFI stocks. My hypothesis is that the fact that a stocks pays a dividend increases probability of it not being a one-hit wonder (those names we want to avoid).
| 7/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $30.98 | $40.73 | $0.91 | 34.4% | 8.8% |
| GME | $20.95 | $13.43 | $1.14 | -30.5% | 8.8% |
| HPQ | $17.60 | $20.78 | $0.40 | 20.3% | 8.8% |
| RGR | $60.70 | $54.90 | $0.67 | -8.5% | 8.8% |
| SYNT | $16.21 | $25.06 | $0.00 | 54.6% | 8.8% |
| Totals | 14.1% | 8.8% | |||
| 10/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DIN | $43.14 | $71.69 | $1.60 | 69.9% | 4.2% |
| GILD | $82.85 | $73.41 | $1.09 | -10.1% | 4.2% |
| GME | $20.50 | $13.43 | $0.76 | -30.8% | 4.2% |
| HPQ | $20.22 | $20.78 | $0.27 | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| OMC | $74.80 | $71.74 | $1.15 | -2.6% | 4.2% |
| Totals | 6.1% | 4.2% | |||
| 1/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $177.11 | $168.14 | $1.32 | -4.3% | -2.6% |
| GME | $18.06 | $13.43 | $0.38 | -23.5% | -2.6% |
| GILD | $71.64 | $73.41 | $0.57 | 3.3% | -2.6% |
| HRB | $26.34 | $25.51 | $0.24 | -2.2% | -2.6% |
| OMC | $72.81 | $71.74 | $0.60 | -0.6% | -2.6% |
| Totals | -5.5% | -2.6% | |||
| 4/3/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $166.46 | $168.14 | $0.00 | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| VIAB | $29.20 | $30.90 | $0.00 | 5.8% | 0.6% |
| GILD | $72.71 | $73.41 | $0.00 | 1.0% | 0.6% |
| TUP | $47.32 | $47.34 | $0.00 | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| EGOV | $13.29 | $13.75 | $0.00 | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Totals | 2.3% | 0.6% |
So three of four tranches leading. That is good. And always nice to see a new tranche, April 3rd in green, in place. While the 2.3% start is nice, the eight rejects started off at a blistering 4.8% pace.
| Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| GILD | 75.39 | 73.41 | - | -2.6% |
| AMGN | 170.48 | 168.14 | - | -1.4% |
| OMC | 72.67 | 71.74 | - | -1.3% |
| GME | 12.62 | 13.43 | - | 6.4% |
| HPQ | 21.92 | 20.78 | - | -5.2% |
| VIAB | 29.20 | 30.90 | - | 5.8% |
| EGOV | 13.29 | 13.75 | - | 3.5% |
| TUP | 47.32 | 47.34 | - | 0.0% |
| DIN | 65.58 | 71.69 | - | 9.3% |
| SYNT | 25.53 | 25.06 | - | -1.8% |
| HRB | 25.41 | 25.51 | - | 0.4% |
| CSCO | 42.89 | 40.73 | 0.33 | -4.3% |
| RGR | 52.50 | 54.90 | - | 4.6% |
This portfolio hung in there in a tough week. GME bounced back from a 12% thrashing a week ago Thursday to be up 6.4% on the week. And DIN was up 9%, even a bunch on meltdown Friday. Not sure if that means investors decided tariffs don't impact pancake sales or something else is percolating (DIN owns Applebee's and IHOP).
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 6.1% | -5.5% | 2.3% | 14.1% | 3.9% |
| Previous Tranche | 7.0% | 16.5% | 21.3% | 26.7% | 17.2% |
| Tranche -2 | 5.5% | 9.3% | 25.2% | -12.5% | 6.9% |
| Tranche -3 | 0.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 20.3% | 33.6% | 54.9% | 26.5% | 33.8% |
| Current Balance | 300,611 | 333,828 | 387,570 | 315,966 | 1,337,976 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 4.2% | -2.6% | 0.6% | 8.8% | 2.7% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 39.7% | 31.3% | 30.3% | 26.7% | 32.0% |
| R3K Balance | 349,039 | 328,253 | 325,972 | 316,344 | 1,319,608 |
| Annualized IRR | 5.4% | 9.3% | 15.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% |
I know 9.8% IRR is not super sexy, but it is solid considering this approach started in 2014 while Formula started in the more favorable (for MFI) 2012.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| 1/1/2017 | 1.57% | 113,406 | 111,832 |
| 4/1/2017 | -1.86% | 116,227 | 118,091 |
| 7/1/2017 | -2.40% | 119,144 | 121,545 |
| 10/1/2017 | -2.56% | 124,448 | 127,007 |
| 1/1/2018 | -3.63% | 131,460 | 135,086 |
| 4/1/2018 | -0.16% | 133,734 | 133,898 |
| Current | 1.84% | 133,798 | 131,960 |
We break back into the lead, albeit a slim 1.84%. It has been a neck and neck horse race since the start. Thus ends the MFI component of this blog, I will now review my Dividend and Misc portfolios, which generally do not have MFI components.
Dividend Portfolio
This is the leg of my investing stool that is supposed to keep me and wifeola with income in retirement. That is why it is largest leg, about 41%. It is also not supposed to be sexy - but rather just providing regular deposits in our Fidelity account. As one might expect, in a week have some turmoil, some of the more boring names in a dividend portfolio might be considered a safe harbor. that is probably why i only saw a 0.2% decline here.
| Dividend Stocks | Start | Current | Divvy | Overall Pct Gain | Weekly Pct Gain | 12/30/17 Price | Yield | 2018 |
| TK | 7.43 | 8.14 | 0.08 | 10.5% | 0.6% | 9.32 | 2.7% | -12.7% |
| OIBAX | 5.91 | 6.05 | 0.25 | 6.5% | 0.0% | 5.96 | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| NS | 29.41 | 19.96 | 0.91 | -29.0% | -2.1% | 29.95 | 12.0% | -33.4% |
| KCLI | 48.89 | 43.70 | 0.60 | -9.4% | -2.9% | 45.25 | 2.5% | -3.4% |
| GLOP-PB | 25.36 | 25.46 | 0.33 | 1.7% | -0.9% | 25.36 | 5.2% | 0.4% |
| TGP | 18.28 | 17.95 | 0.14 | -1.0% | 0.3% | 20.15 | 3.1% | -10.9% |
| AMID | 11.87 | 10.95 | 0.18 | -6.2% | 1.4% | 13.35 | 15.1% | -18.0% |
| KNOP | 21.30 | 19.85 | 0.52 | -4.4% | 0.3% | 20.75 | 10.5% | -4.3% |
| LADR | 13.01 | 15.02 | 0.93 | 22.6% | -0.4% | 13.63 | 8.4% | 10.2% |
| CPLP | 3.53 | 3.09 | 0.16 | -8.2% | -1.1% | 3.36 | 10.4% | -8.2% |
| JQC | 8.18 | 7.91 | 0.76 | 6.0% | -0.4% | 8.22 | 6.2% | -3.8% |
| ISBC | 13.25 | 13.34 | 0.24 | 2.5% | -2.2% | 13.88 | 2.7% | -3.9% |
| EVG | 14.46 | 13.52 | 0.56 | -2.6% | -0.9% | 14.35 | 6.8% | -5.8% |
| FDEU | 18.40 | 17.33 | 1.18 | 0.6% | -3.6% | 18.83 | 8.4% | -8.0% |
| PSXP | 47.39 | 47.63 | 1.71 | 4.1% | -0.3% | 52.35 | 5.7% | -9.0% |
| RLJ-PA | 28.45 | 25.60 | 1.46 | -4.9% | 0.9% | 27.01 | 7.7% | -5.2% |
| SBRA | 22.15 | 17.70 | 0.62 | -17.3% | 0.3% | 18.77 | 10.2% | -5.7% |
| NRZ | 16.56 | 16.32 | 1.67 | 8.6% | -0.8% | 17.88 | 12.3% | -8.7% |
| DSL | 19.47 | 20.33 | 2.29 | 16.2% | 1.2% | 20.19 | 8.9% | 0.7% |
| OCSI | 8.68 | 7.92 | 0.57 | -2.1% | 0.4% | 8.40 | 9.6% | -5.7% |
| TGONF | 11.04 | 12.80 | 1.96 | 33.8% | -2.3% | 13.30 | 5.5% | -3.8% |
| TOO | 2.33 | 2.45 | 0.01 | 5.4% | 7.9% | 2.36 | 1.6% | 3.8% |
| O | 25.93 | 52.08 | 21.53 | 183.9% | 0.7% | 57.02 | 5.0% | -8.7% |
| Totals | 0.6% | -0.3% | 6.8% | -3.4% |
I mentioned last week that I doubled my AMID position. That worked out ok so far. Really no other changes, this is not a slot machine portfolio. NS continues to be the bane of 2018, down 33%. I keep thinking it can't fall further and then it does. MLPs AMID and PSXP are also struggling in 2018, but there is tremendous demand right now for their pipelines. My best security thus far in 2018? LADR. I guess they are a bit of a blue chip name here and have received takeover interest.
My largest holding, TK, has struggled. They started the year afire and then had a secondary at $9.75 which was filled no problem. Since then a bit of a free fall. I can't discern a reason for it, I still believe this is a $12 stock a year from now. Stay tuned.
I also have a basket of small bank stocks as part of my dividend portfolio. They continue to meander up and down, i am hopeful that when 1st quarter earnings start coming in, the impact of lowered tax rates shines a spotlight on them.
| Bank | Start | Current | Dividends | Change | 2018 Change | Yield |
| ACBI | 16.99 | 18.75 | - | 10.3% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| ASB | 25.69 | 24.30 | 0.15 | -4.8% | -4.3% | 2.3% |
| FBIZ | 23.69 | 25.17 | 0.14 | 6.9% | 13.8% | 2.2% |
| FULT | 18.81 | 17.35 | 0.23 | -6.5% | -3.1% | 2.4% |
| FNB | 14.47 | 13.17 | 0.12 | -8.2% | -4.7% | 3.5% |
| MSBI | 32.96 | 31.58 | 0.22 | -3.5% | -2.8% | 2.7% |
| NRIM | 37.47 | 34.75 | 0.45 | -6.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| PACW | 48.30 | 47.71 | 0.50 | -0.2% | -5.3% | 4.0% |
| SONA | 17.13 | 15.76 | 0.08 | -7.5% | -1.7% | 2.0% |
| WNEB | 10.88 | 10.65 | 0.04 | -1.7% | -2.3% | 1.5% |
| Total | -2.1% | -0.1% | 2.3% |
I suppose down 0.1% for 2018 is a victory of sorts.
Finally, I do track 40 stocks/securities Barron's published as an index to benchmark my dividend portfolio performance. It also hung in there this week for the same reason.
| Ticker | 12/30/2017 | Current | Dividend | YTD Change | Weekly Change | Yield |
| AMLP | 10.79 | 9.35 | 0.21 | -11.4% | -0.2% | 9.00% |
| NML | 9.38 | 8.36 | 0.17 | -9.1% | 2.5% | 7.89% |
| EPD | 26.51 | 24.22 | 0.42 | -7.1% | -1.1% | 6.94% |
| ETP | 17.92 | 16.54 | 0.57 | -4.5% | 2.0% | 13.38% |
| FDD | 13.73 | 13.95 | 0.15 | 2.7% | 0.8% | 2.50% |
| VGK | 59.15 | 58.25 | 0.38 | -0.9% | 0.2% | 2.75% |
| DDAIF | 84.57 | 79.80 | 3.25 | -1.8% | -5.9% | 4.34% |
| NVS | 83.96 | 80.20 | 2.75 | -1.2% | -0.8% | 3.73% |
| NOBL | 64.04 | 61.66 | 0.33 | -3.2% | -0.9% | 1.89% |
| VYM | 85.63 | 81.58 | 0.62 | -4.0% | -1.1% | 3.00% |
| MRK | 56.27 | 53.36 | 0.48 | -4.3% | -2.0% | 3.55% |
| PEP | 119.92 | 109.30 | 0.81 | -8.2% | 0.1% | 2.94% |
| VNQ | 82.98 | 75.27 | 0.98 | -8.1% | -0.3% | 4.82% |
| RQI | 12.65 | 11.92 | 0.24 | -3.9% | 0.6% | 3.95% |
| TCO | 65.43 | 57.90 | 0.63 | -10.6% | 1.7% | 4.37% |
| SLG | 100.93 | 94.52 | 0.78 | -5.6% | -2.4% | 3.37% |
| T | 38.88 | 35.63 | 0.98 | -5.8% | -0.1% | 5.54% |
| VZ | 52.93 | 47.48 | 1.12 | -8.2% | -0.7% | 4.92% |
| CHL | 50.54 | 45.64 | - | -9.7% | -0.2% | 4.02% |
| DTEGY | 17.66 | 16.48 | - | -6.7% | 0.5% | 4.14% |
| DSU | 11.70 | 11.64 | 0.21 | 1.3% | 0.2% | 3.53% |
| HIO | 5.07 | 4.81 | 0.09 | -3.4% | 0.0% | 4.07% |
| MUB | 110.74 | 108.54 | 0.84 | -1.2% | -0.4% | 2.29% |
| PRHYX | 6.76 | 6.60 | 0.09 | -1.0% | 0.2% | 5.40% |
| NEA | 13.75 | 12.97 | 0.18 | -4.4% | -0.2% | 5.51% |
| JNK | 36.72 | 35.74 | 0.66 | -0.9% | -0.3% | 5.63% |
| VWITX | 14.13 | 13.86 | 0.12 | -1.0% | -0.1% | 0.00% |
| PHMIX | 9.09 | 8.99 | 0.13 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2.80% |
| UTG | 30.94 | 28.01 | 0.48 | -7.9% | -0.8% | 4.20% |
| XLU | 52.65 | 50.42 | 0.42 | -3.4% | -0.2% | 3.39% |
| DUK | 84.11 | 78.16 | 0.89 | -6.0% | 0.9% | 4.50% |
| EIX | 63.24 | 63.38 | 0.54 | 1.1% | -0.4% | 3.64% |
| PFF | 38.07 | 37.20 | 0.72 | -0.4% | -1.0% | 5.60% |
| JPC | 10.34 | 10.05 | 0.20 | -0.9% | 0.4% | 3.89% |
| WFC-PL | 1,309.99 | 1,283.05 | 18.75 | -0.6% | -0.5% | 5.80% |
| TIP | 114.08 | 112.87 | 0.84 | -0.3% | -0.2% | 2.37% |
| SHY | 83.85 | 83.49 | 0.32 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 1.11% |
| TLT | 126.86 | 121.10 | 1.02 | -3.7% | -0.7% | 2.55% |
| Totals | - | - | - | -3.8% | -0.3% | 4.30% |
You can see it isn't just my MLPs (like AMID and PSXP struggling), they are struggling for Barron's as well, AMLP, NML EPD and ETP. Interestingly, the order I show here on Barron's list is kind of a descending order of how Barron's felt income producing securities would do in 2018. So they thought treasuries (like TLT) and preferred (like PFF) would do the worst and the MLPs would do the best. As Yogi Berra said, "Predictions are hard, especially about the future".
Miscellaneous
Hay wait, is that a typo? My Misc portfolio was actually up on the week. By 0.4%, but a win is a win. I did start to sell BYBK this week, this is a very small bank I bought last March. It is finally eligible for LT CG treatment. They are being bought by OLBK, which I do not really want... so I will slowly sell, necessary as BYBK is not very liquid. It was a great pick for me, up about 80%.
I also did sell my DHT (a shipping stock) for about a 5% gain and I rolled most of the proceeds into SSW, a container ship company. I expect not many of my readers follow container shipping rates, but they are on fire. They are up about 40% year over year and 10% just in past month. If we can just avoid a trade war....
SSW has been a great Misc buy for me, my first tranche is up 26% in past month. The new tranche is about a 60% increased stake. OMER was my other big winner in Misc, up 21% this week, I had commented on its crash last week from $15.75 to $11.17. Now back to $13.58. Obviously a highly volatile stock. I believe once it is clear they have govt funding locked down, this should be is $17 to $20 range. Then we wait to see how drugs in trial do.
While container rates are strong, dry bulk rates have been super weak for past 45 days as measured by BDI. That has really hurt my NMM, which was down 9% this week. I hear a lot of excuses on the cause of BDI drop, but I am starting to convinced it is not a blip. NMM is just too cheap from a pure book value standpoint to sell, but I am starting to question substantial upside.
I think that is enough for today. Have a great weekend.
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