Well, a year has passed since I bought my February Tranche in 2017. Sometimes fun to look back at what I thought a year ago:
"This was a tough tranche to pick. With the Dow around 20,000 and the 7%+ Trump rally - not that many stocks look like a screaming buy. I did stick out my neck on one pick, YY."
Ok, the YY pick was a good one! Here is more:
"RGR - very late decision. I really struggled for a fifth name. Kicked around VIAB, IDCC, MCK, CAH, TGNA, MCFT and TDC. Sad thought, but I believe gun sales will continue to have momentum."
So interesting that RGR was my pick with the least conviction and my worst pick. Of my runner-ups, MCFT (+74%) and TDC (+39%) would have been strong. The others were mediocre (MCK was solid). Here is the final tranche:
| 2/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AKRX | $19.10 | $32.22 | $0.00 | 68.7% | 24.7% |
| YY | $41.08 | $132.96 | $0.00 | 223.7% | 24.7% |
| KLAC | $85.11 | $109.80 | $2.26 | 31.7% | 24.7% |
| WNC | $17.65 | $25.83 | $0.24 | 47.7% | 24.7% |
| RGR | $52.75 | $52.95 | $1.36 | 3.0% | 24.7% |
| Totals | 74.9% | 24.7% |
Pretty funny, WNC had a great final day, up 9% on earnings. It is funny because last year their earnings were a day or two later and they also had good earnings then, right after I bought them.
I also like to always use this review to pause and look at every closed tranche for MFI Select back to August 2012. There are some good ones, but this was certainly one of the best.
| 8/15/12 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DLB | $34.43 | $33.04 | $4.00 | 7.6% | 22.1% |
| KFY | $13.98 | $18.95 | $0.00 | 35.6% | 22.1% |
| MSFT | $30.19 | $31.92 | $0.92 | 8.8% | 22.1% |
| NSU | $3.62 | $3.33 | $0.12 | -4.6% | 22.1% |
| UIS | $19.96 | $24.52 | $0.00 | 22.8% | 22.1% |
| Totals | 14.1% | 22.1% | |||
| 11/15/12 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AAPL | $537.62 | $527.28 | $8.75 | -0.3% | 36.7% |
| ABC | $40.21 | $69.23 | $0.86 | 74.3% | 36.7% |
| LPS | $23.89 | $34.26 | $0.40 | 45.1% | 36.7% |
| VIAB | $49.12 | $80.94 | $1.15 | 67.1% | 36.7% |
| WU | $12.77 | $16.40 | $0.50 | 32.3% | 36.7% |
| Totals | 43.7% | 36.7% | |||
| 2/1/13 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AAPL | $450.60 | $500.66 | $8.75 | 13.1% | 21.1% |
| GA | $6.10 | $11.01 | $0.65 | 91.2% | 21.1% |
| STRZA | $16.06 | $27.98 | $0.00 | 74.2% | 21.1% |
| CA | $25.07 | $32.08 | $1.00 | 32.0% | 21.1% |
| NUS | $41.94 | $116.59 | $1.20 | 180.8% | 21.1% |
| Totals | 78.3% | 21.1% | |||
| 5/6/2013 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| KLIC | $11.40 | $14.44 | $0.00 | 26.7% | 18.9% |
| CYOU | $29.24 | $28.02 | $0.00 | -4.2% | 18.9% |
| RDA | $9.74 | $16.79 | $0.10 | 73.5% | 18.9% |
| NVDA | $13.85 | $18.43 | $0.32 | 35.4% | 18.9% |
| CF | $183.97 | $243.22 | $2.80 | 33.7% | 18.9% |
| Totals | 33.0% | 18.9% | |||
| 8/15/2013 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CF | $187.26 | $247.43 | $4.50 | 34.5% | 19.4% |
| FLR | $66.06 | $73.03 | $0.53 | 11.4% | 19.4% |
| AGX | $15.60 | $36.71 | $0.75 | 140.1% | 19.4% |
| KLIC | $11.29 | $14.26 | $0.00 | 26.3% | 19.4% |
| RPXC | $15.92 | $15.09 | $0.00 | -5.2% | 19.4% |
| Totals | 41.4% | 19.4% | |||
| 11/15/13 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AVG | $17.22 | $19.21 | $0.00 | 11.6% | 14.5% |
| ATVI | $17.71 | $20.10 | $0.20 | 14.6% | 14.5% |
| GA | $9.04 | $11.90 | $0.23 | 34.2% | 14.5% |
| RPXC | $17.04 | $13.91 | $0.00 | -18.4% | 14.5% |
| SYNA | $48.01 | $61.90 | $0.00 | 28.9% | 14.5% |
| Totals | 14.2% | 14.5% | |||
| 2/1/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| ATVI | $17.13 | $20.90 | $0.20 | 23.1% | 12.9% |
| KLAC | $61.47 | $61.47 | $18.40 | 29.9% | 12.9% |
| RPXC | $16.22 | $12.35 | $0.00 | -23.9% | 12.9% |
| SNDK | $69.55 | $75.91 | $0.83 | 10.3% | 12.9% |
| WNR | $39.11 | $37.13 | $3.04 | 2.7% | 12.9% |
| Totals | 8.5% | 12.9% | |||
| 5/6/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AVG | $19.57 | $23.27 | $0.00 | 18.9% | 12.9% |
| CA | $29.54 | $31.41 | $1.00 | 9.7% | 12.9% |
| CSCO | $22.79 | $28.89 | $0.78 | 30.2% | 12.9% |
| NSR | $25.82 | $30.69 | $0.00 | 18.9% | 12.9% |
| RCII | $28.78 | $31.77 | $0.94 | 13.7% | 12.9% |
| Totals | 18.3% | 12.9% | |||
| 8/15/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $24.40 | $28.95 | $0.80 | 21.9% | 8.8% |
| AGX | $36.71 | $40.69 | $0.70 | 12.7% | 8.8% |
| ITRN | $21.32 | $25.11 | $0.87 | 21.9% | 8.8% |
| BRCD | $9.34 | $10.15 | $0.15 | 10.3% | 8.8% |
| CBI | $58.25 | $51.70 | $0.21 | -10.9% | 8.8% |
| Totals | 11.2% | 8.8% | |||
| 11/15/2014 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| FLR | $64.80 | $47.46 | $0.84 | -25.5% | 0.8% |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $80.03 | $0.00 | 108.1% | 0.8% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $50.69 | $1.46 | -27.9% | 0.8% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $51.46 | $0.06 | 322.6% | 0.8% |
| AWRE | $4.40 | $3.07 | $0.00 | -30.2% | 0.8% |
| Totals | 69.4% | 0.8% | |||
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $19.76 | $0.00 | -29.4% | -2.6% |
| QCOM | $62.73 | $45.34 | $1.86 | -24.8% | -2.6% |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $44.90 | $1.53 | -27.4% | -2.6% |
| UIS | $22.03 | $10.87 | $0.00 | -50.7% | -2.6% |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $19.95 | $0.05 | 60.8% | -2.6% |
| Totals | -14.3% | -2.6% | |||
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $38.23 | $0.14 | -23.8% | -0.9% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $2.87 | $0.00 | -30.4% | -0.9% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $30.46 | $0.80 | -19.7% | -0.9% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $50.87 | $0.00 | -18.3% | -0.9% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $15.51 | $0.00 | -34.0% | -0.9% |
| Totals | -25.2% | -0.9% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $17.45 | $0.00 | -6.5% | 5.3% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $11.75 | $0.00 | 25.8% | 5.3% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $31.20 | $0.94 | 11.0% | 5.3% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $21.37 | $0.56 | -13.3% | 5.3% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $19.19 | $0.39 | -2.8% | 5.3% |
| Totals | 2.8% | 5.3% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $24.25 | $0.00 | -28.7% | 8.1% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $53.39 | $0.00 | 54.9% | 8.1% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $19.46 | $2.75 | 17.0% | 8.1% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $22.25 | $0.00 | -5.7% | 8.1% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $4.10 | $0.00 | 2.8% | 8.1% |
| Totals | 8.0% | 8.1% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $22.54 | $0.00 | 14.8% | 21.4% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $53.43 | $2.07 | 22.9% | 21.4% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.86 | $0.00 | -24.1% | 21.4% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $18.09 | $0.00 | 17.9% | 21.4% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $29.36 | $0.00 | 22.2% | 21.4% |
| Totals | 10.7% | 21.4% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $12.57 | $0.17 | 59.8% | 20.0% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $29.30 | $0.28 | -21.8% | 20.0% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $21.65 | $0.52 | 19.8% | 20.0% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $46.91 | $0.90 | 24.1% | 20.0% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $122.84 | $0.00 | 13.8% | 20.0% |
| Totals | 19.1% | 20.0% | |||
| 8/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $31.20 | $31.84 | $1.10 | 5.6% | 14.6% |
| GNC | $19.79 | $9.62 | $0.38 | -49.5% | 14.6% |
| VLO | $54.73 | $66.79 | $2.70 | 27.0% | 14.6% |
| MSGN | $16.68 | $20.40 | $0.00 | 22.3% | 14.6% |
| GILD | $79.33 | $72.81 | $1.98 | -5.7% | 14.6% |
| Totals | -0.1% | 14.6% | |||
| 11/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MPAA | $26.55 | $25.51 | $0.00 | -3.9% | 20.3% |
| ATHM | $22.61 | $60.02 | $0.00 | 165.5% | 20.3% |
| AMGN | $145.14 | $170.13 | $3.15 | 19.4% | 20.3% |
| RHI | $43.23 | $53.51 | $0.94 | 26.0% | 20.3% |
| CA | $31.11 | $32.31 | $0.77 | 6.3% | 20.3% |
| Totals | 42.6% | 20.3% |
The Next Tranche
Tomorrow I will buy my five new stocks. And then Friday I will sell the 2/1/17 tranche (to ensure long term capital gains treatment, a must when up 74%!).
I have not yet decided what to buy. Here are the names I am considering, and I will take a final look at news (it is earnings season after all) and the MFI screen in the morning before finalizing.
| agx |
| nls |
| wdc |
| amcx |
| casa |
| twx |
| tosyy |
Stay tuned!
Posts
1 comment:
I'm a new reader, who read Joel Greenblatt's book a few months ago and have started employing his strategy. However, I have a question that I can't find the answer to. I have sold everything and am now traveling through the Philippines. Therefore my income is zero. I have set aside what I need and I'm diversifying the rest. I have learned the long term capital gains tax is zero if your income is under 38,700. I would like to know your thoughts on selling the winners and holding the losers (that are still MF stocks) after one year. Basically increasing the holding period and possibly increasing the position.
Thank you,
Brian
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