Wednesday, September 27, 2017

What a Difference a Month Makes!

Value Fights Back?

Exactly a month ago, I noted that the 11 open tracking portfolios were trailing the benchmark by a stunning 7.5% on average.  I do not know if that is the worst I have seen, but it was near the bottom.

Well my friends - the old magic formula is making a comeback.  Not all the way back, but that 7.5 gap has been narrowed in 30 days to 4.1 percentage points.  And the dividend subset is only trailing by 70 basis points.

MY MFI Index is up about 5 points in the past 30 days, pretty much a rocket move for those 50 stocks.  And the 50 new stocks from 8/26 are up 6.7%. Let us look at them:


Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change  Mkt Cap 
NATH              55.50           73.25 32.0%            232
NCMI                5.57             7.08 27.0%            338
DHX                2.00             2.40 20.0%            101
NHTC              20.04           23.87 19.1%            227
MNKD                1.55             1.84 18.4%            162
BBSI              48.86           57.34 17.3%            355
KLAC              90.48         104.07 15.0%       14,191
VEC              27.43           31.45 14.7%            304
GILD              73.33           83.97 14.5%       96,370
RCM                3.20             3.64 13.7%            336
HSII              18.20           20.60 13.2%            342
PDLI                3.00             3.39 13.0%            462
RHI              44.04           49.75 13.0%         5,557
MCFT              17.66           19.89 12.6%            329
AMAG              16.80           18.90 12.5%            593
AGX              59.15           65.95 11.5%            916
BPT              19.50           21.50 10.3%            417
GME              19.02           20.90 9.9%         1,965
MPAA              26.09           28.65 9.8%            506
PBI              12.64           13.72 8.5%         2,355
SYNT              18.06           19.59 8.5%         1,511
DLX              67.92           73.07 7.6%         3,284
EGRX              55.14           58.82 6.7%            894
CSCO              31.44           33.53 6.6%     155,942
CPLA              66.40           70.68 6.4%            775
IPG              20.02           21.29 6.4%         7,944
IDCC              70.40           74.58 5.9%         2,444
SQBG                2.82             2.98 5.7%            178
ABC              78.10           82.40 5.5%       17,571
TGNA              12.61           13.23 4.9%         2,719
SCMP              11.30           11.80 4.4%            523
TIME              12.56           13.10 4.3%         1,255
OMC              72.59           75.41 3.9%       16,893
ESRX              60.79           62.93 3.5%       35,109
TRNC              13.92           14.35 3.1%            457
MSGN              20.70           21.33 3.0%         1,554
FFIV            117.60         120.97 2.9%         7,473
CSVI              45.19           46.10 2.0%            636
MD              44.22           43.82 -0.9%         4,134
AVID                4.57             4.48 -2.0%            188
LEE                2.15             2.10 -2.3%            122
AMCX              60.45           59.02 -2.4%         3,898
USNA              59.45           57.73 -2.9%         1,464
VIAB              28.98           27.93 -3.6%       11,746
DISCA              22.66           21.49 -5.2%       13,097
CJREF              10.94           10.33 -5.6%         2,247
UTHR            128.45         119.48 -7.0%         5,984
FRAN                8.03             7.29 -9.2%            298
HRB              29.44           26.65 -9.5%         6,155
AOBC              18.08           15.75 -12.9%            974


Interesting that the top 6 were all under $400m of market cap.  In fact, the stocks with market cap under $400m (14 of the 50 total) are up an average of 12.9% in the past 30 days!

I would hazard a guess that these smaller cap stocks will be much greater beneficiaries of a tax cut than larger cap stocks.  Also interesting that HRB is near the bottom as tax code might get simplified.

Stay tuned to same bat channel.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

sold my paper sept. formula for +32% vs 15% index. Happy BUT total still -3% index. Need some small caps for BIG wins to make this work. Still too many retail and bad ones! Value traps ect.