Saturday, August 05, 2017

Weekend Update 8/5/17

MFI Weekend Update 

Well,  the big news for me personally is that I retired last Monday.  I am ready for it, job had pretty much burnt me out.  I have saved and had some pretty good fortune, so should be in good financial shape.

As readers may know, I am an actuary (thus my love of tracking history and making projections here), so that also helps in projecting income streams and everything for my wife and I in retirement.  Enough about that.

You have found your way to the MFI Diary, a blog where I let readers know my thoughts and performance on real life, real dollar Magic Formula Portfolios (based of course on "The Little Book The Beats The Market" by Joel Greenblatt.  I also spend some effort tracking hypothetical portfolios based on downloads from the official website going back to January 2006.

Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a guy with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor.  You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.

The Past Week

It was a bad week for me, really no other way to say it. I lost over a point in a week where the Russell edged up.  It just was not a good week for Magic Formula/Value stocks.  My MFI Index was up 1.75% last week and now is down 1.3% - a 3 point negative move!   Is that really right?  Let us look at the 50 stocks... that seems like almost unbelievable,


Stock 7/28/2017 8/4/2017 Change
RCM                 3.30              3.20 -3.0%
AMCX              66.53            62.26 -6.4%
AAPL            150.70         157.59 4.6%
AGTC                 4.70              5.00 6.4%
AGX              64.35            65.35 1.6%
AVID                 5.19              4.78 -7.9%
AWRE                 4.70              4.65 -1.1%
BBSI              55.45            55.74 0.5%
HRB              30.69            30.55 -0.5%
BPT              22.59            21.89 -3.1%
CA              31.45            32.50 3.3%
CSCO              32.36            32.64 0.9%
CXRX                 1.40              1.40 0.0%
DLX              73.48            70.79 -3.7%
DHX                 2.40              2.30 -4.2%
ESRX              62.90            62.53 -0.6%
FPRX              28.84            29.43 2.0%
GME              22.26            22.69 1.9%
GILD              76.93            74.15 -3.6%
GHC            591.30         589.00 -0.4%
HPQ              19.44            19.64 1.0%
ICON                 6.86              6.19 -9.8%
IDCC              75.80            72.25 -4.7%
IRMD                 9.80              9.65 -1.5%
LFVN                 3.84              3.80 -1.0%
MBUU              28.55            27.05 -5.3%
MCFT              18.44            18.24 -1.1%
MCK            163.07         155.25 -4.8%
MDCA                 9.95              9.65 -3.0%
MPAA              27.73            26.28 -5.2%
MSGN              21.85            20.25 -7.3%
MYGN              23.66            24.89 5.2%
NHTC              25.02            22.03 -12.0%
NSR              33.30            33.50 0.6%
PDLI                 2.32              2.39 3.0%
PBI              15.86            13.22 -16.7%
RPXC              13.68            12.90 -5.7%
SSNI              11.18            11.17 -0.1%
AOBC              20.45            19.69 -3.7%
RGR              57.82            53.82 -6.9%
SCMP              10.85            10.40 -4.1%
SYNT              19.73            18.67 -5.4%
TGNA              23.66            21.79 -7.9%
TDC              31.50            31.91 1.3%
TRNC              13.03            12.58 -3.5%
UIS              12.50              8.80 -29.6%
UTHR            128.35         136.81 6.6%
USNA              56.65            56.75 0.2%
VEC              34.61            33.80 -2.3%
VIAB              36.06            30.62 -15.1%
Average -3.0%



Wow - there it is in white and blue, down an average of 3 percentage points!  I really had not noticed it was that bad (being on vacation and retired).  Note I track stock prices with dividends year to date added in if you are trying to check my work at home.  I guess I feel better about being down a bit more than a point (my two MFI approaches were each down around 2 points).

 Component   YTD 
 Overall  +8.04%
 Select  +10.29%
 Formula  +5.84%
 Miscellaneous  -7.61%
 Dividend  +14.31%
 R3K  +10.92%
 MFI Index  -1.36%

Here are my MFI stocks for the week:


 Portfolio   Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 Formula   SYNT              19.73         18.67                       -   -5.4%
 Formula   CSCO              31.52         31.80                       -   0.9%
 Formula   HPQ              19.17         19.37                       -   1.0%
 Formula   GILD              75.94         73.16                       -   -3.7%
 Formula   GME              21.50         21.93                       -   2.0%
 Formula   CA              30.94         31.99                       -   3.4%
 Formula   TGNA              23.45         21.58                       -   -8.0%
 Formula   OMC              78.90         79.20                       -   0.4%
 Formula   CPLA              70.10         69.65                       -   -0.6%
 Formula   BKE              16.85         16.55                       -   -1.8%
 Formula   RGR              56.90         52.90                       -   -7.0%
 Formula   LDOS              53.60         56.19                       -   4.8%
 Formula   PBI              15.48         12.84                       -   -17.1%

 Portfolio   Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 Select   ATHM              48.71         47.82                       -   -1.8%
 Select   MSGN              21.85         20.25                       -   -7.3%
 Select   AKRX              33.63         33.47                       -   -0.5%
 Select   YY              71.64         73.49                       -   2.6%
 Select   AMGN            174.54       173.85                       -   -0.4%
 Select   RHI              44.82         44.22                       -   -1.3%
 Select   CA              30.94         31.99                       -   3.4%
 Select   MPAA              27.73         26.28                       -   -5.2%
 Select   WNC              19.03         19.03                       -   0.0%
 Select   QCOM              52.88         52.62                       -   -0.5%
 Select   KLAC              94.40         88.83                       -   -5.9%
 Select   RGR              56.90         52.90                       -   -7.0%
 Select   WSTC              23.35         23.34                       -   0.0%
 Select   TGNA              23.45         21.58                       -   -8.0%
 Select   TIME              14.50         13.75                       -   -5.2%
 Select   VLO              66.69         68.53                       -   2.8%
 Select   CSCO              31.52         31.80                       -   0.9%
 Select   GILD              75.94         73.16 -3.7%
 Select   GNC              10.17            9.99 -1.8%

Largely, I suspect it was earnings misses that drove the poor week.  Perhaps some silver lining in that I start a new tranche 8/15 and I will look for some stocks that dropped too much.

MFI Select

As the name suggests, this is my MFI portfolio where I allow myself free reign to pick whatever "value" stocks I want.  It can be from the official website screens or from my own workbook where I create a top 200 at least once a month.  I rebooted this approach in August 2012 (I licked my wounds in August 2011 when I stopped for a year and re-considered my strategy/approach).

Here is how MFI Select has down month by month (assuming I began with $100,000):

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
8/1/2016 52.72%        207,223            154,501
9/1/2016 67.04%        222,481            155,446
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
11/1/2016 41.86%        195,726            153,863
12/1/2016 45.92%        202,775            156,859
1/1/2017 45.60%        209,503            163,936
2/1/2017 45.20%        212,330            167,146
3/1/2017 48.80%        222,583            173,829
4/1/2017 55.70%        229,473            173,735
5/1/2017 55.80%        231,497            175,712
6/1/2017 53.40%        230,599            177,203
7/1/2017 60.28%        239,060            178,782
8/1/2017 57.76%        239,924            182,163
Current 53.52%        235,894            182,373

Wow, you sure see the poor start to August here.  My "lead" since 7/1 has shrunk from 60.28% to 53.52%.  Never easy, can't get complacent.

Here are my four tranches:


8/15/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $31.20 $31.80 $1.10 5.4% 15.1%
 GNC  $19.79 $9.99 $0.38 -47.6% 15.1%
 VLO  $54.73 $68.53 $2.00 28.9% 15.1%
 MSGN  $16.68 $20.25 $0.00 21.4% 15.1%
 GILD  $79.33 $73.16 $1.98 -5.3% 15.1%
 Totals  0.6% 15.1%
11/15/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MPAA  $26.55 $26.28 $0.00 -1.0% 15.0%
 ATHM  $22.61 $47.82 $0.00 111.5% 15.0%
 AMGN  $145.14 $173.85 $2.00 21.2% 15.0%
 RHI  $43.23 $44.22 $0.70 3.9% 15.0%
 CA  $31.11 $31.99 $0.51 4.5% 15.0%
 Totals  28.0% 15.0%
2/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AKRX  $19.10 $33.47 $0.00 75.2% 9.0%
 YY  $41.08 $73.49 $0.00 78.9% 9.0%
 KLAC  $85.11 $88.83 $1.08 5.6% 9.0%
 WNC  $17.65 $19.03 $0.06 8.2% 9.0%
 RGR  $52.75 $52.90 $0.92 2.0% 9.0%
 Totals  34.0% 9.0%
5/6/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 WSTC  $24.15 $23.34 $0.00 -3.4% 3.3%
 TGNA  $25.75 $21.58 $0.07 -15.9% 3.3%
 TIME  $15.05 $13.75 $0.04 -8.4% 3.3%
 MSGN  $23.55 $20.25 $0.00 -14.0% 3.3%
 QCOM  $54.93 $52.62 $0.57 -3.2% 3.3%
 Totals  -9.0% 3.3%

Looks like August will be a push whether I end up in the green.  May tranche is still terrible.  KLAC and RGR got whacked, here are some headlines:


not good.

Here is my table showing returns:

 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  0.6% 28.0% 34.0% -9.0% 14.3%
 Previous Tranche  2.8% 8.0% 10.7% 19.1% 9.1%
 Tranche -2  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 10.3%
 Tranche -3  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 20.6%
 Tranche -4  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 42.3%
 MFI Overall Gain  85.5% 284.7% 145.9% 27.5% 135.9%
 Current Balance         46,373          96,168       61,469        31,884         235,894
 R3K Current Tranche  15.1% 15.0% 9.0% 3.3% 10.6%
 R3K Overall Gain  92.4% 96.0% 76.3% 64.9% 82.4%
 R3K Balance         48,101          48,988       44,065        41,219         182,373
 Annualized IRR  13.2% 33.0% 22.1% 5.9% 18.5%

My current tranches are still leading, 14.3% to 10.6%. But my annualized IRR dropped below 19% for first time in long time to 18.5%.  


MFI Formula

Here I also have 4 tranches of 5 stocks.  But these are picked by formula and random number generator.    I have been using this approach since October 2014.  It has been lukewarm in success thus far - although it has worked very well in my backtesting.  The stocks here are all dividend stocks with yields 2.4% or higher. Same series of tables.


 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
8/1/2016 2.56%        109,419            106,857
9/1/2016 -0.34%        106,704            107,048
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
11/1/2016 0.42%        105,421            105,003
12/1/2016 1.62%        110,705            109,088
1/1/2017 1.57%        113,406            111,832
2/1/2017 1.32%        114,809            113,486
3/1/2017 -5.09%        112,930            118,024
4/1/2017 -1.86%        116,227            118,091
5/1/2017 1.11%        120,403            119,296
6/1/2017 -2.65%        117,824            120,472
7/1/2017 -2.40%        119,144            121,545
8/1/2017 -1.96%        121,873            123,828
Current -4.17%        119,800            123,972

Yuck, now trailing by 4.17%.  I had been making headway and now have fallen back to one of my worst marks.


10/3/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CPLA  $58.15 $69.65 $1.23 21.9% 15.9%
 LDOS  $43.01 $56.19 $0.96 32.9% 15.9%
 GME  $27.70 $21.93 $1.13 -16.8% 15.9%
 PBI  $18.15 $12.84 $0.56 -26.2% 15.9%
 CSCO  $31.72 $31.80 $1.10 3.7% 15.9%
 Totals  3.1% 15.9%
12/30/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 GILD  $71.69 $73.16 $1.04 3.5% 10.8%
 HPQ  $15.00 $19.37 $0.40 31.8% 10.8%
 TGNA  $21.33 $21.58 $0.21 2.2% 10.8%
 CA  $31.99 $31.99 $0.51 1.6% 10.8%
 SYNT  $19.79 $18.67 $0.00 -5.7% 10.8%
 Totals  6.7% 10.8%
4/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $18.45 $16.55 $0.50 -7.6% 5.0%
 CSCO  $33.76 $31.80 $0.58 -4.1% 5.0%
 GILD  $67.50 $73.16 $0.52 9.2% 5.0%
 OMC  $85.53 $79.20 $0.55 -6.8% 5.0%
 SYNT  $16.76 $18.67 $0.00 11.4% 5.0%
 Totals  0.4% 5.0%
7/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $30.98 $31.80 $0.00 2.6% 1.9%
 GME  $20.95 $21.93 $0.00 4.7% 1.9%
 HPQ  $17.60 $19.37 $0.00 10.1% 1.9%
 RGR  $60.70 $52.90 $0.00 -12.9% 1.9%
 SYNT  $16.21 $18.67 $0.00 15.2% 1.9%
 Totals  3.9% 1.9%


Three of four tranches are trailing.


 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  3.1% 6.7% 0.4% 3.9% 3.5%
 Previous Tranche  5.5% 9.3% 25.2% 26.7% 16.1%
 Tranche -2  0.5% 11.0% -0.2% -12.5% -0.3%
 MFI Overall Gain  9.3% 29.4% 25.4% 15.3% 19.8%
 Current Balance      273,030        323,408     313,685      287,872      1,197,995
 R3K Current Tranche  15.9% 10.8% 5.0% 1.9% 8.4%
 R3K Overall Gain  30.9% 23.8% 22.6% 18.7% 24.0%
 R3K Balance      327,121        309,533     306,616      296,437      1,239,707
 Annualized IRR  3.2% 10.4% 10.1% 7.0% 7.7%

The five point deficit to benchmark on current tranches is pretty consistent with 4.17% deficit overall. It is just always a struggle.

Dividends and Miscellaneous

As I am now retired, I am starting to make some material portfolio shifts.  I am in process of downsizing holdings in company I retired from (just makes sense to be diversified) and most of that money is going towards dividend holdings.  I did buy a large slug of VTIBX  - I will not track it here as it is pretty unexciting.

My Miscellaneous holdings also had a rough week.  I have taken a largish position on SLSDF (a fracking sand company) and it frankly has not worked well.  I am holding as I think they are way oversold, but it is not helping the cause.  NVIV is also a misc holding and took a major hit (again I felt way too much, 27%) as they announced a patient died, although the press release said unrelated to treatment.  Finally, ICHR took a 18% haircut this week on earnings/guidance.  Again, I now think they are way oversold and I actually am manually scoring them as a MFI stock and may make part of my 8/15 tranche (for some reason, in my top 200, Fidelity does not have their quarterly financial statements... so I had to go to sec.gov).

All I can say is thank God for my dividend portfolio. It had another tremendous week, up almost a point.  NRZ and LADR had nice weeks, but it was primarily a group effort and nothing blowing up.  I was busy, I added to FSFR and TGONF.  Then I restarted a position in GLDI (a weird covered call on gold fund).


 Stock   Initial   Current   Div/Sh   Gain/Loss   Yield 
 FDEU          18.40          18.99            0.36 5.2% 7.6%
 LADR          13.01          13.65                 -   5.0% 8.8%
 TK             5.24             9.90            0.06 89.8% 2.2%
 JQC             8.20             8.61            0.54 11.6% 7.3%
 KCLI          49.32          49.70                 -   0.8% 2.4%
 FSFR             8.68             8.41                 -   -3.1% 9.0%
 ISBC          13.15          13.42                 -   2.1% 2.4%
 TGONF          10.91          12.85            1.76 33.9% 5.4%
 SBRA          23.53          23.09            0.29 -0.7% 7.4%
 NRZ          16.22          16.83            0.38 6.1% 11.9%
 PSXP          48.20          48.35            0.62 1.6% 5.1%
 GLDI             9.23             9.22                 -   -0.1% 5.8%
 DHF             3.34             3.56            0.07 8.6% 9.1%
 DSL          18.49          21.15            2.01 25.3% 8.5%
 RILY          13.85          18.45                 -   33.2% 1.7%
 O          25.02          57.45         20.25 210.6% 4.4%
 OIBAX             5.09             5.97            2.40 64.5% 4.1%

I have really ramped up my tracked dividend income in past quarter.  My projected annual income is up by 77% since June.  But I do exclude the dividends in my former company stock from both of those - so I am actually down until I get it reinvested.

Have a great week!

2 comments:

Paul T said...

Congratulations on the retirement. Now you can focus on MFI Full time :P

Marsh_Gerda said...

Paul - thanks for the note. I'll try to fit in 40 hours a week on MFI!