Well, the big news for me personally is that I retired last Monday. I am ready for it, job had pretty much burnt me out. I have saved and had some pretty good fortune, so should be in good financial shape.
As readers may know, I am an actuary (thus my love of tracking history and making projections here), so that also helps in projecting income streams and everything for my wife and I in retirement. Enough about that.
You have found your way to the MFI Diary, a blog where I let readers know my thoughts and performance on real life, real dollar Magic Formula Portfolios (based of course on "The Little Book The Beats The Market" by Joel Greenblatt. I also spend some effort tracking hypothetical portfolios based on downloads from the official website going back to January 2006.
Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a guy with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor. You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.
The Past Week
It was a bad week for me, really no other way to say it. I lost over a point in a week where the Russell edged up. It just was not a good week for Magic Formula/Value stocks. My MFI Index was up 1.75% last week and now is down 1.3% - a 3 point negative move! Is that really right? Let us look at the 50 stocks... that seems like almost unbelievable,
Stock | 7/28/2017 | 8/4/2017 | Change |
RCM | 3.30 | 3.20 | -3.0% |
AMCX | 66.53 | 62.26 | -6.4% |
AAPL | 150.70 | 157.59 | 4.6% |
AGTC | 4.70 | 5.00 | 6.4% |
AGX | 64.35 | 65.35 | 1.6% |
AVID | 5.19 | 4.78 | -7.9% |
AWRE | 4.70 | 4.65 | -1.1% |
BBSI | 55.45 | 55.74 | 0.5% |
HRB | 30.69 | 30.55 | -0.5% |
BPT | 22.59 | 21.89 | -3.1% |
CA | 31.45 | 32.50 | 3.3% |
CSCO | 32.36 | 32.64 | 0.9% |
CXRX | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.0% |
DLX | 73.48 | 70.79 | -3.7% |
DHX | 2.40 | 2.30 | -4.2% |
ESRX | 62.90 | 62.53 | -0.6% |
FPRX | 28.84 | 29.43 | 2.0% |
GME | 22.26 | 22.69 | 1.9% |
GILD | 76.93 | 74.15 | -3.6% |
GHC | 591.30 | 589.00 | -0.4% |
HPQ | 19.44 | 19.64 | 1.0% |
ICON | 6.86 | 6.19 | -9.8% |
IDCC | 75.80 | 72.25 | -4.7% |
IRMD | 9.80 | 9.65 | -1.5% |
LFVN | 3.84 | 3.80 | -1.0% |
MBUU | 28.55 | 27.05 | -5.3% |
MCFT | 18.44 | 18.24 | -1.1% |
MCK | 163.07 | 155.25 | -4.8% |
MDCA | 9.95 | 9.65 | -3.0% |
MPAA | 27.73 | 26.28 | -5.2% |
MSGN | 21.85 | 20.25 | -7.3% |
MYGN | 23.66 | 24.89 | 5.2% |
NHTC | 25.02 | 22.03 | -12.0% |
NSR | 33.30 | 33.50 | 0.6% |
PDLI | 2.32 | 2.39 | 3.0% |
PBI | 15.86 | 13.22 | -16.7% |
RPXC | 13.68 | 12.90 | -5.7% |
SSNI | 11.18 | 11.17 | -0.1% |
AOBC | 20.45 | 19.69 | -3.7% |
RGR | 57.82 | 53.82 | -6.9% |
SCMP | 10.85 | 10.40 | -4.1% |
SYNT | 19.73 | 18.67 | -5.4% |
TGNA | 23.66 | 21.79 | -7.9% |
TDC | 31.50 | 31.91 | 1.3% |
TRNC | 13.03 | 12.58 | -3.5% |
UIS | 12.50 | 8.80 | -29.6% |
UTHR | 128.35 | 136.81 | 6.6% |
USNA | 56.65 | 56.75 | 0.2% |
VEC | 34.61 | 33.80 | -2.3% |
VIAB | 36.06 | 30.62 | -15.1% |
Average | -3.0% |
Wow - there it is in white and blue, down an average of 3 percentage points! I really had not noticed it was that bad (being on vacation and retired). Note I track stock prices with dividends year to date added in if you are trying to check my work at home. I guess I feel better about being down a bit more than a point (my two MFI approaches were each down around 2 points).
Component | YTD |
Overall | +8.04% |
Select | +10.29% |
Formula | +5.84% |
Miscellaneous | -7.61% |
Dividend | +14.31% |
R3K | +10.92% |
MFI Index | -1.36% |
Here are my MFI stocks for the week:
Portfolio | Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
Formula | SYNT | 19.73 | 18.67 | - | -5.4% |
Formula | CSCO | 31.52 | 31.80 | - | 0.9% |
Formula | HPQ | 19.17 | 19.37 | - | 1.0% |
Formula | GILD | 75.94 | 73.16 | - | -3.7% |
Formula | GME | 21.50 | 21.93 | - | 2.0% |
Formula | CA | 30.94 | 31.99 | - | 3.4% |
Formula | TGNA | 23.45 | 21.58 | - | -8.0% |
Formula | OMC | 78.90 | 79.20 | - | 0.4% |
Formula | CPLA | 70.10 | 69.65 | - | -0.6% |
Formula | BKE | 16.85 | 16.55 | - | -1.8% |
Formula | RGR | 56.90 | 52.90 | - | -7.0% |
Formula | LDOS | 53.60 | 56.19 | - | 4.8% |
Formula | PBI | 15.48 | 12.84 | - | -17.1% |
Portfolio | Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
Select | ATHM | 48.71 | 47.82 | - | -1.8% |
Select | MSGN | 21.85 | 20.25 | - | -7.3% |
Select | AKRX | 33.63 | 33.47 | - | -0.5% |
Select | YY | 71.64 | 73.49 | - | 2.6% |
Select | AMGN | 174.54 | 173.85 | - | -0.4% |
Select | RHI | 44.82 | 44.22 | - | -1.3% |
Select | CA | 30.94 | 31.99 | - | 3.4% |
Select | MPAA | 27.73 | 26.28 | - | -5.2% |
Select | WNC | 19.03 | 19.03 | - | 0.0% |
Select | QCOM | 52.88 | 52.62 | - | -0.5% |
Select | KLAC | 94.40 | 88.83 | - | -5.9% |
Select | RGR | 56.90 | 52.90 | - | -7.0% |
Select | WSTC | 23.35 | 23.34 | - | 0.0% |
Select | TGNA | 23.45 | 21.58 | - | -8.0% |
Select | TIME | 14.50 | 13.75 | - | -5.2% |
Select | VLO | 66.69 | 68.53 | - | 2.8% |
Select | CSCO | 31.52 | 31.80 | - | 0.9% |
Select | GILD | 75.94 | 73.16 | -3.7% | |
Select | GNC | 10.17 | 9.99 | -1.8% |
Largely, I suspect it was earnings misses that drove the poor week. Perhaps some silver lining in that I start a new tranche 8/15 and I will look for some stocks that dropped too much.
MFI Select
As the name suggests, this is my MFI portfolio where I allow myself free reign to pick whatever "value" stocks I want. It can be from the official website screens or from my own workbook where I create a top 200 at least once a month. I rebooted this approach in August 2012 (I licked my wounds in August 2011 when I stopped for a year and re-considered my strategy/approach).
Here is how MFI Select has down month by month (assuming I began with $100,000):
Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
9/1/2016 | 67.04% | 222,481 | 155,446 |
10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
11/1/2016 | 41.86% | 195,726 | 153,863 |
12/1/2016 | 45.92% | 202,775 | 156,859 |
1/1/2017 | 45.60% | 209,503 | 163,936 |
2/1/2017 | 45.20% | 212,330 | 167,146 |
3/1/2017 | 48.80% | 222,583 | 173,829 |
4/1/2017 | 55.70% | 229,473 | 173,735 |
5/1/2017 | 55.80% | 231,497 | 175,712 |
6/1/2017 | 53.40% | 230,599 | 177,203 |
7/1/2017 | 60.28% | 239,060 | 178,782 |
8/1/2017 | 57.76% | 239,924 | 182,163 |
Current | 53.52% | 235,894 | 182,373 |
Wow, you sure see the poor start to August here. My "lead" since 7/1 has shrunk from 60.28% to 53.52%. Never easy, can't get complacent.
Here are my four tranches:
8/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
CSCO | $31.20 | $31.80 | $1.10 | 5.4% | 15.1% |
GNC | $19.79 | $9.99 | $0.38 | -47.6% | 15.1% |
VLO | $54.73 | $68.53 | $2.00 | 28.9% | 15.1% |
MSGN | $16.68 | $20.25 | $0.00 | 21.4% | 15.1% |
GILD | $79.33 | $73.16 | $1.98 | -5.3% | 15.1% |
Totals | 0.6% | 15.1% | |||
11/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
MPAA | $26.55 | $26.28 | $0.00 | -1.0% | 15.0% |
ATHM | $22.61 | $47.82 | $0.00 | 111.5% | 15.0% |
AMGN | $145.14 | $173.85 | $2.00 | 21.2% | 15.0% |
RHI | $43.23 | $44.22 | $0.70 | 3.9% | 15.0% |
CA | $31.11 | $31.99 | $0.51 | 4.5% | 15.0% |
Totals | 28.0% | 15.0% | |||
2/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
AKRX | $19.10 | $33.47 | $0.00 | 75.2% | 9.0% |
YY | $41.08 | $73.49 | $0.00 | 78.9% | 9.0% |
KLAC | $85.11 | $88.83 | $1.08 | 5.6% | 9.0% |
WNC | $17.65 | $19.03 | $0.06 | 8.2% | 9.0% |
RGR | $52.75 | $52.90 | $0.92 | 2.0% | 9.0% |
Totals | 34.0% | 9.0% | |||
5/6/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
WSTC | $24.15 | $23.34 | $0.00 | -3.4% | 3.3% |
TGNA | $25.75 | $21.58 | $0.07 | -15.9% | 3.3% |
TIME | $15.05 | $13.75 | $0.04 | -8.4% | 3.3% |
MSGN | $23.55 | $20.25 | $0.00 | -14.0% | 3.3% |
QCOM | $54.93 | $52.62 | $0.57 | -3.2% | 3.3% |
Totals | -9.0% | 3.3% |
Looks like August will be a push whether I end up in the green. May tranche is still terrible. KLAC and RGR got whacked, here are some headlines:
not good.
Here is my table showing returns:
Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
Current Tranche | 0.6% | 28.0% | 34.0% | -9.0% | 14.3% |
Previous Tranche | 2.8% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 19.1% | 9.1% |
Tranche -2 | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 10.3% |
Tranche -3 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 20.6% |
Tranche -4 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 42.3% |
MFI Overall Gain | 85.5% | 284.7% | 145.9% | 27.5% | 135.9% |
Current Balance | 46,373 | 96,168 | 61,469 | 31,884 | 235,894 |
R3K Current Tranche | 15.1% | 15.0% | 9.0% | 3.3% | 10.6% |
R3K Overall Gain | 92.4% | 96.0% | 76.3% | 64.9% | 82.4% |
R3K Balance | 48,101 | 48,988 | 44,065 | 41,219 | 182,373 |
Annualized IRR | 13.2% | 33.0% | 22.1% | 5.9% | 18.5% |
My current tranches are still leading, 14.3% to 10.6%. But my annualized IRR dropped below 19% for first time in long time to 18.5%.
MFI Formula
Here I also have 4 tranches of 5 stocks. But these are picked by formula and random number generator. I have been using this approach since October 2014. It has been lukewarm in success thus far - although it has worked very well in my backtesting. The stocks here are all dividend stocks with yields 2.4% or higher. Same series of tables.
Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
9/1/2016 | -0.34% | 106,704 | 107,048 |
10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
11/1/2016 | 0.42% | 105,421 | 105,003 |
12/1/2016 | 1.62% | 110,705 | 109,088 |
1/1/2017 | 1.57% | 113,406 | 111,832 |
2/1/2017 | 1.32% | 114,809 | 113,486 |
3/1/2017 | -5.09% | 112,930 | 118,024 |
4/1/2017 | -1.86% | 116,227 | 118,091 |
5/1/2017 | 1.11% | 120,403 | 119,296 |
6/1/2017 | -2.65% | 117,824 | 120,472 |
7/1/2017 | -2.40% | 119,144 | 121,545 |
8/1/2017 | -1.96% | 121,873 | 123,828 |
Current | -4.17% | 119,800 | 123,972 |
Yuck, now trailing by 4.17%. I had been making headway and now have fallen back to one of my worst marks.
10/3/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
CPLA | $58.15 | $69.65 | $1.23 | 21.9% | 15.9% |
LDOS | $43.01 | $56.19 | $0.96 | 32.9% | 15.9% |
GME | $27.70 | $21.93 | $1.13 | -16.8% | 15.9% |
PBI | $18.15 | $12.84 | $0.56 | -26.2% | 15.9% |
CSCO | $31.72 | $31.80 | $1.10 | 3.7% | 15.9% |
Totals | 3.1% | 15.9% | |||
12/30/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
GILD | $71.69 | $73.16 | $1.04 | 3.5% | 10.8% |
HPQ | $15.00 | $19.37 | $0.40 | 31.8% | 10.8% |
TGNA | $21.33 | $21.58 | $0.21 | 2.2% | 10.8% |
CA | $31.99 | $31.99 | $0.51 | 1.6% | 10.8% |
SYNT | $19.79 | $18.67 | $0.00 | -5.7% | 10.8% |
Totals | 6.7% | 10.8% | |||
4/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
BKE | $18.45 | $16.55 | $0.50 | -7.6% | 5.0% |
CSCO | $33.76 | $31.80 | $0.58 | -4.1% | 5.0% |
GILD | $67.50 | $73.16 | $0.52 | 9.2% | 5.0% |
OMC | $85.53 | $79.20 | $0.55 | -6.8% | 5.0% |
SYNT | $16.76 | $18.67 | $0.00 | 11.4% | 5.0% |
Totals | 0.4% | 5.0% | |||
7/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
CSCO | $30.98 | $31.80 | $0.00 | 2.6% | 1.9% |
GME | $20.95 | $21.93 | $0.00 | 4.7% | 1.9% |
HPQ | $17.60 | $19.37 | $0.00 | 10.1% | 1.9% |
RGR | $60.70 | $52.90 | $0.00 | -12.9% | 1.9% |
SYNT | $16.21 | $18.67 | $0.00 | 15.2% | 1.9% |
Totals | 3.9% | 1.9% |
Three of four tranches are trailing.
Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
Current Tranche | 3.1% | 6.7% | 0.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% |
Previous Tranche | 5.5% | 9.3% | 25.2% | 26.7% | 16.1% |
Tranche -2 | 0.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | -0.3% |
MFI Overall Gain | 9.3% | 29.4% | 25.4% | 15.3% | 19.8% |
Current Balance | 273,030 | 323,408 | 313,685 | 287,872 | 1,197,995 |
R3K Current Tranche | 15.9% | 10.8% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 8.4% |
R3K Overall Gain | 30.9% | 23.8% | 22.6% | 18.7% | 24.0% |
R3K Balance | 327,121 | 309,533 | 306,616 | 296,437 | 1,239,707 |
Annualized IRR | 3.2% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% |
The five point deficit to benchmark on current tranches is pretty consistent with 4.17% deficit overall. It is just always a struggle.
Dividends and Miscellaneous
As I am now retired, I am starting to make some material portfolio shifts. I am in process of downsizing holdings in company I retired from (just makes sense to be diversified) and most of that money is going towards dividend holdings. I did buy a large slug of VTIBX - I will not track it here as it is pretty unexciting.
My Miscellaneous holdings also had a rough week. I have taken a largish position on SLSDF (a fracking sand company) and it frankly has not worked well. I am holding as I think they are way oversold, but it is not helping the cause. NVIV is also a misc holding and took a major hit (again I felt way too much, 27%) as they announced a patient died, although the press release said unrelated to treatment. Finally, ICHR took a 18% haircut this week on earnings/guidance. Again, I now think they are way oversold and I actually am manually scoring them as a MFI stock and may make part of my 8/15 tranche (for some reason, in my top 200, Fidelity does not have their quarterly financial statements... so I had to go to sec.gov).
All I can say is thank God for my dividend portfolio. It had another tremendous week, up almost a point. NRZ and LADR had nice weeks, but it was primarily a group effort and nothing blowing up. I was busy, I added to FSFR and TGONF. Then I restarted a position in GLDI (a weird covered call on gold fund).
Stock | Initial | Current | Div/Sh | Gain/Loss | Yield |
FDEU | 18.40 | 18.99 | 0.36 | 5.2% | 7.6% |
LADR | 13.01 | 13.65 | - | 5.0% | 8.8% |
TK | 5.24 | 9.90 | 0.06 | 89.8% | 2.2% |
JQC | 8.20 | 8.61 | 0.54 | 11.6% | 7.3% |
KCLI | 49.32 | 49.70 | - | 0.8% | 2.4% |
FSFR | 8.68 | 8.41 | - | -3.1% | 9.0% |
ISBC | 13.15 | 13.42 | - | 2.1% | 2.4% |
TGONF | 10.91 | 12.85 | 1.76 | 33.9% | 5.4% |
SBRA | 23.53 | 23.09 | 0.29 | -0.7% | 7.4% |
NRZ | 16.22 | 16.83 | 0.38 | 6.1% | 11.9% |
PSXP | 48.20 | 48.35 | 0.62 | 1.6% | 5.1% |
GLDI | 9.23 | 9.22 | - | -0.1% | 5.8% |
DHF | 3.34 | 3.56 | 0.07 | 8.6% | 9.1% |
DSL | 18.49 | 21.15 | 2.01 | 25.3% | 8.5% |
RILY | 13.85 | 18.45 | - | 33.2% | 1.7% |
O | 25.02 | 57.45 | 20.25 | 210.6% | 4.4% |
OIBAX | 5.09 | 5.97 | 2.40 | 64.5% | 4.1% |
I have really ramped up my tracked dividend income in past quarter. My projected annual income is up by 77% since June. But I do exclude the dividends in my former company stock from both of those - so I am actually down until I get it reinvested.
Have a great week!
2 comments:
Congratulations on the retirement. Now you can focus on MFI Full time :P
Paul - thanks for the note. I'll try to fit in 40 hours a week on MFI!
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