Monday, February 20, 2017

Weekend Update 2/20/17 (quick and dirty)

Weekend Update

Quick and dirty weekend update.  Just got back from President's weekend get-a-way sand wifi.

MFI Select


5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $12.35 $0.17 57.0% 17.6%
 CBI  $37.82 $33.95 $0.00 -10.2% 17.6%
 HSII  $18.51 $21.80 $0.39 19.9% 17.6%
 RHI  $38.51 $48.59 $0.66 27.9% 17.6%
 UTHR  $107.99 $168.16 $0.00 55.7% 17.6%
 Totals  30.1% 17.6%
8/15/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $31.20 $33.74 $0.26 9.0% 9.2%
 GNC  $19.79 $7.64 $0.38 -59.5% 9.2%
 VLO  $54.73 $65.49 $1.30 22.0% 9.2%
 MSGN  $16.68 $21.40 $0.00 28.3% 9.2%
 GILD  $79.33 $69.85 $0.94 -10.8% 9.2%
 Totals  -2.2% 9.2%
11/15/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MPAA  $26.55 $28.99 $0.00 9.2% 9.0%
 ATHM  $22.61 $33.01 $0.00 46.0% 9.0%
 AMGN  $145.14 $173.29 $1.00 20.1% 9.0%
 RHI  $43.23 $48.59 $0.22 12.9% 9.0%
 CA  $31.11 $32.09 $0.26 4.0% 9.0%
 Totals  18.4% 9.0%
2/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AKRX  $19.10 $21.78 $0.00 14.0% 3.3%
 YY  $41.08 $48.05 $0.00 17.0% 3.3%
 KLAC  $85.11 $88.46 $0.54 4.6% 3.3%
 WNC  $17.65 $20.53 $0.00 16.3% 3.3%
 RGR  $52.75 $49.70 $0.00 -5.8% 3.3%
 Totals  9.2% 3.3%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  -2.2% 18.4% 9.2% 30.1% 13.3%
 Previous Tranche  2.8% 8.0% 10.7% -25.2% -2.7%
 Tranche -2  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 21.2%
 Tranche -3  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -4  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 34.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  80.4% 255.9% 100.4% 52.9% 122.4%
 Current Balance         45,102          88,975       50,106        38,235         222,418
 R3K Current Tranche  9.2% 9.0% 3.3% 17.6% 9.7%
 R3K Overall Gain  82.4% 85.8% 67.1% 56.3% 69.1%
 R3K Balance         41,779          46,441       41,763        39,072         169,055
 Annualized IRR  13.9% 34.6% 18.7% 11.8% 19.8%


 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
8/1/2016 52.72%        207,223            154,501
9/1/2016 67.04%        222,481            155,446
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
11/1/2016 41.86%        195,726            153,863
12/1/2016 45.92%        202,775            156,859
1/1/2017 47.19%        209,503            162,313
2/1/2017 47.65%        212,330            164,675
Current 53.36%        222,418            169,055

 Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 RHI              47.21                   48.59                       -   2.9%
 ATHM              34.09                   33.01                       -   -3.2%
 CA              31.77                   32.09                       -   1.0%
 AMGN            167.89                173.29                       -   3.2%
 MPAA              27.24                   28.99                       -   6.4%
 AKRX              20.49                   21.78                       -   6.3%
 MSGN              22.00                   21.40                       -   -2.7%
 VLO              67.47                   65.49                       -   -2.9%
 BRCD              12.31                   12.35                       -   0.3%
 YY              44.48                   48.05                       -   8.0%
 CSCO              31.51                   33.74                       -   7.1%
 KLAC              86.64                   88.46                       -   2.1%
 RGR              50.15                   49.70                       -   -0.9%
 GILD              66.36                   69.85                       -   5.3%
 CBI              33.68                   33.95                       -   0.8%
 GNC                8.52                     7.64                       -   -10.3%
 WNC              21.36                   20.53                       -   -3.9%
 Average  1.1%

Was up a decent 1.3%.


MFI Formula


 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $38.65 $0.44 -23.8% 17.4%
 HPQ  $12.10 $15.95 $0.38 34.9% 17.4%
 TIME  $15.24 $19.25 $0.57 30.0% 17.4%
 ILG  $13.85 $18.98 $0.36 39.6% 17.4%
 TSRA  $30.79 $43.95 $0.60 44.7% 17.4%
 Totals  25.1% 17.4%
7/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 ILG  $16.76 $18.98 $0.24 14.7% 12.9%
 VIAB  $44.00 $43.99 $0.40 0.9% 12.9%
 CPLA  $53.22 $77.70 $0.80 47.5% 12.9%
 HRB  $23.62 $20.51 $0.44 -11.3% 12.9%
 PBI  $17.69 $13.39 $0.56 -21.1% 12.9%
 Totals  6.1% 12.9%
10/3/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CPLA  $58.15 $77.70 $0.41 34.3% 9.9%
 LDOS  $43.01 $51.95 $0.00 20.8% 9.9%
 GME  $27.70 $25.57 $0.37 -6.4% 9.9%
 PBI  $18.15 $13.39 $0.38 -24.2% 9.9%
 CSCO  $31.72 $33.74 $0.52 8.0% 9.9%
 Totals  6.5% 9.9%
12/30/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 GILD  $71.69 $69.85 $0.00 -2.6% 5.0%
 HPQ  $15.00 $15.95 $0.00 6.3% 5.0%
 TGNA  $21.33 $24.37 $0.00 14.3% 5.0%
 CA  $31.99 $32.09 $0.26 1.1% 5.0%
 SYNT  $19.79 $18.64 $0.00 -5.8% 5.0%
 Totals  2.7% 5.0%
 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  6.5% 2.7% 25.1% 6.1% 9.2%
 Previous Tranche  5.5% 9.3% -0.2% -12.5% 1.3%
 Tranche -2  0.5% 11.0%               -                  -   2.9%
 MFI Overall Gain  12.9% 24.5% 24.8% -7.1% 13.8%
 Current Balance      282,046        311,246     312,194      231,979      1,137,464
 R3K Current Tranche  9.9% 5.0% 17.4% 12.9% 11.3%
 R3K Overall Gain  24.1% 17.4% 16.2% 12.6% 17.6%
 R3K Balance      310,116        293,368     290,586      281,222      1,175,292
 Annualized IRR  5.2% 10.8% 12.4% -4.4% 6.0%

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
8/1/2016 2.56%        109,419            106,857
9/1/2016 -0.34%        106,704            107,048
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
11/1/2016 0.42%        105,421            105,003
12/1/2016 1.62%        110,705            109,088
1/1/2017 1.57%        113,406            111,832
2/1/2017 1.32%        114,809            113,486
Current -3.78%        113,746            117,530

 Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 CPLA              82.85                   77.70                       -   -6.2%
 HPQ              15.72                   15.95                       -   1.5%
 ILG              19.19                   18.98                       -   -1.1%
 PBI              13.19                   13.39                       -   1.5%
 GILD              66.36                   69.85                       -   5.3%
 CA              31.77                   32.09                       -   1.0%
 SYNT              22.24                   18.64                       -   -16.2%
 TGNA              23.66                   24.37                       -   3.0%
 TSRA              43.85                   43.95                       -   0.2%
 LDOS              50.84                   51.95                       -   2.2%
 TIME              19.00                   19.25                       -   1.3%
 CSCO              31.51                   33.74                       -   7.1%
 GME              25.66                   25.57                       -   -0.4%
 HRB              21.05                   20.51                       -   -2.6%
 CALM              39.40                   38.65 -1.9%
 VIAB              43.65                   43.99 0.8%
 Average  -0.3%

SYNT took a beating.  This approach continues to struggle. Especially on a relative basis.


Dividends

 Dividend Stocks  Start  Current   Divvy   Overall Pct Gain   Weekly Pct Gain   1/1/17 Price   % Chg Since 1/1/17 
 CSQ      9.13       10.90      2.36 45.3% -1.1%         10.27 7.4%
 AOD      7.64         8.08      1.79 29.2% -1.0%           7.58 7.9%
 SBRA    22.46       25.74      0.41 16.4% 0.0%         24.42 5.4%
 PSXP    46.95       56.21      1.09 22.0% 0.6%         48.64 16.7%
 TGONF    10.24       12.40      1.85 39.2% 1.6%         12.14 2.1%
 JQC      7.85         8.83      0.74 22.0% -1.1%           8.85 0.9%
 PSX    80.00       78.66      3.51 2.7% -1.5%         86.41 -8.2%
 DSL    18.44       20.05      1.31 15.8% -1.2%         18.99 7.1%
 GLDI    10.64         9.45      0.86 -3.0% -0.2%           8.94 7.3%
 PEO    20.49       19.81      0.10 -2.8% -1.4%         20.17 -1.3%
 O    24.43       60.80    19.57 229.0% -0.8%         57.48 6.0%
 DHF      3.19         3.42      0.06 9.0% 0.0%           3.36 2.8%
 OIBAX      5.08         5.68      2.33 57.9% 0.2%           5.61 1.8%
 Totals  25.8% 3.9%

Miscellaneous


Here is how I am doing in each of my approaches in 2017.  Hard to be unhappy, but I am trailing benchmark by a bit.  You can see my Misc approach has been my most effective.  That being said, it is also (I believe) my most risky approach.

 Component   YTD 
 Overall  +4.56%
 Select  +4.94%
 Formula  +0.52%
 Miscellaneous  +14.76%
 Dividend  +3.91%
 R3K  +5.13%
 MFI Index  +3.35%


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