One of my real money MFI approaches is what I call MFI Formula. This is purely a formula-driven approach, where I take the official screen, apply a couple of filters and then use a random number generator to pick 5 stocks. I do this once a quarter, hold for a year and then rinse and repeat.
I was looking at results year to date and saw the Russell 3000 is up 10.8%. Whoa, I thought... that is pretty good. Then I saw my MFI Formula approach is up 11.1%. Double whoa. That is me and that is real money. And in fact, depending how you measure it, my MFI Formula is doing even better. I include in that 11% a cash balance (earning nothing) that was 30% of the total at start of year and has been trending down as I add to investments each quarter end. If I strip that out (which seems fair as the Russell 3000 number has no cash ballast), I'm up 13,2%.
Doesn't Feel Like I am Up
It doesn't really feel like I am up as my four open tranches are struggling a bit:
| 10/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DIN | $43.14 | $81.10 | $2.86 | 94.6% | 17.8% |
| GILD | $82.85 | $75.51 | $2.23 | -6.2% | 17.8% |
| GME | $20.50 | $16.52 | $1.52 | -12.0% | 17.8% |
| HPQ | $20.22 | $25.83 | $0.53 | 30.4% | 17.8% |
| OMC | $74.80 | $70.90 | $2.35 | -2.1% | 17.8% |
| Totals | 20.9% | 17.8% | |||
| 1/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $177.11 | $205.10 | $3.96 | 18.0% | 10.2% |
| GME | $18.06 | $16.52 | $1.14 | -2.2% | 10.2% |
| GILD | $71.64 | $75.51 | $1.71 | 7.8% | 10.2% |
| HRB | $26.34 | $26.12 | $0.74 | 2.0% | 10.2% |
| OMC | $72.81 | $70.90 | $1.80 | -0.2% | 10.2% |
| Totals | 5.1% | 10.2% | |||
| 4/3/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $166.46 | $205.10 | $2.64 | 24.8% | 13.5% |
| VIAB | $29.20 | $32.37 | $0.40 | 12.2% | 13.5% |
| GILD | $72.71 | $75.51 | $1.14 | 5.4% | 13.5% |
| TUP | $47.32 | $34.55 | $1.36 | -24.1% | 13.5% |
| EGOV | $13.29 | $14.55 | $0.16 | 10.7% | 13.5% |
| Totals | 5.8% | 13.5% | |||
| 7/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CJREF | $3.90 | $3.30 | $0.19 | -10.4% | 7.9% |
| GILD | $70.80 | $75.51 | $0.57 | 7.5% | 7.9% |
| IPG | $22.80 | $23.18 | $0.21 | 2.6% | 7.9% |
| KLAC | $102.03 | $104.52 | $0.75 | 3.2% | 7.9% |
| TUP | $40.09 | $34.55 | $0.68 | -12.1% | 7.9% |
| Totals | -1.9% | 7.9% |
So they are up on average 6.0% and the Russell 3000 is up 12.4% across these 4 tranches. But this is only a bit more than 1/2 the picture. I closed two tranches in 2018 that beat the R3K pretty soundly:
| 4/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $18.45 | $22.00 | $2.75 | 34.1% | 11.0% |
| CSCO | $33.76 | $41.01 | $1.16 | 24.9% | 11.0% |
| GILD | $67.50 | $73.14 | $2.13 | 11.5% | 11.0% |
| OMC | $85.53 | $71.27 | $2.25 | -14.0% | 11.0% |
| SYNT | $16.76 | $25.16 | $0.00 | 50.1% | 11.0% |
| Totals | 21.3% | 11.0% | |||
| 7/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $30.98 | $42.67 | $1.24 | 41.7% | 17.4% |
| GME | $20.95 | $15.47 | $1.52 | -18.9% | 17.4% |
| HPQ | $17.60 | $23.37 | $0.53 | 35.8% | 17.4% |
| RGR | $60.70 | $56.70 | $0.99 | -5.0% | 17.4% |
| SYNT | $16.21 | $37.77 | $0.00 | 133.0% | 17.4% |
| Totals | 37.3% | 17.4% |
Summary
13% is great even if it isn't beating benchmark by much. And in a time where the only stocks up feel like FAANG stocks, it feels good for some value plays to be hanging in there. Sadly, my other MFI approach (Select) is having a difficult year (actually slightly in the red).
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