Happy Cinco De Mayo everyone! With the turning of the calendar to May, winter seems to have finally left New England. And this Spring thing is glorious!
Last week was a humbling week. My Magic Formula real money portfolios (Select and Formula) struggled mightily. Thursday was just out and out a depressing day. But I get ahead of myself, I will cover fully in the appropriate sections. Friday was a great day, I am not a technical analysis guy, but everyone and his uncle were crying earlier in the week that we were starting to creep under to 200 dma - which I guess means we go into free fall (I don't subscribe to TA, but I do believe that if enough people and computers do, it can become self-fulfilling, at least in the short term). Anyway, I guess Friday's strong bounce puts us back above the 200 dma.
Welcome to the occasionally amusing MFI Diary. This is a diary I have been maintaining since February 2006 (damn, that is a long time) tracking my "experiences" in investing real money in the methods discussed in "The Little Book That Beats The Markets". I also spend some time discussing my MFI (Magic Formula Investing) Index and various MFI tracking portfolios that I have created over time.
And as a free bonus, I also discuss how my non-MFI investments are doing (generally poorly) in 2nd half of my blog.
Onwards.
Last Week
Mellowing out this morning (and did I mention it is glorious Spring morning?) listening to Judy, Judy, Judy Live in Carnegie Hall on my new (actually old) Pioneer turntable. I find listening to actual records very nice. It is a bit of a metaphor for investing. So many investors have become like people listening to iPods on shuffle. Listen to a song by one group, then quickly sell a stock and buy something totally different. That is not really investing. Listening to full records takes a bit of a longer attention span, which is what you also need (in my view) to be successful (ish) at investing.
Ok, off soapbox. It was a frustrating week - sometimes it may be best just not to watch. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday were decent (relatively) for me. And even Thursday started great. I was doing so well, that I actually started a post showing that I have finally moved ahead of my benchmark for 2018. Then Boom! The wheels fell off and like the stock gods punished me for thinking such thoughts. Here is a table showing weekly, quarterly and year to date results:
| Component | YTD | 2nd Quarter | Week Change |
| Overall | -1.7% | +1.3% | -0.5% |
| MFI Select | -4.3% | -6.1% | -1.5% |
| MFI Formula | +3.3% | +2.0% | -2.7% |
| MFI Combined | -0.7% | -2.2% | -2.1% |
| Miscellaneous | -4.9% | +5.3% | +2.3% |
| Dividend | -1.0% | +2.2% | -0.5% |
| Dividend Index | -2.9% | +0.7% | -0.5% |
| R3K Index | +0.3% | +1.0% | -0.1% |
| Blended Index | -1.1% | +0.9% | -0.3% |
| MFI Index | +9.0% | +1.9% | -0.1% |
| GARIX | -1.8% | -2.0% | -1.4% |
Now I know I throw a lot of tables up there, and maybe you look at them or maybe you're just here for my witty banter... but either way, I encourage you to glance up and (hopefully) my nicely formatted table. For some reason though, Blogger doesn't bring all my color over and items that are negative don't come over in red :(?
If you look under 2nd quarter, you'll see I am gaining a bit of ground overall, up 1.3% (versus +0.9% for blended index). But, unlike Q1, it is not MFI carrying the freight. MFI Select is down 6.1% in the second quarter. Rather it is Miscellaneous, up 5.3%. Just a month. And I have full confidence in MFI Select. But a bit distressing. You'll definitely see it in the tables under MFI Select. MFI Formula is solid for Q2, but you can see last week (-2.7%) was a struggle as GILD got hammered.
Enough big picture stuff. Let me flip the record (Vinyl also makes you stand up more often).
MFI Select
For the one new reader I get once a month, I have basically 5 ways I look at MFI:
- Magic Formula Tracking Portfolios - I create a tracking portfolio of 50 MFI stocks from the official screen (which I hypothetically hold for a year) once a month. I have been doing this since January 2006.
- MFI Index - I use the year end monthly tracking portfolio to create an MFI Index (kind of like the Russell 3000 Index). It has under-performed benchmarks in total since 2006, but is having a great 2018 (up 9%).
- GARIX - this is Gotham mutual fund that uses MFI techniques. You can buy it, but it does have a high minimum investment. It is a long/short fund.
- MFI Select - a real money MFI portfolio I have been running (you can look at blog history) since August 2012. It consists of 4 tranches of 5 stock each that I buy and hold for a year.
- MFI Formula - my second real money MFI approach, just like Select, but started October 2014.
Since MFI Select has been struggling so much lately, let us look at the four open tranches (note the newest tranche was started this week).
| 8/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| GHC | $591.10 | $599.25 | $3.81 | 2.0% | 9.9% |
| ICHR | $19.80 | $23.74 | $0.00 | 19.9% | 9.9% |
| MD | $43.00 | $45.22 | $0.00 | 5.2% | 9.9% |
| SIMO | $43.05 | $45.36 | $0.60 | 6.8% | 9.9% |
| RHI | $44.15 | $62.05 | $0.76 | 42.3% | 9.9% |
| Totals | 15.2% | 9.9% | |||
| 11/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MSGN | $16.67 | $19.20 | $0.00 | 15.2% | 4.8% |
| CELG | $100.60 | $86.89 | $0.00 | -13.6% | 4.8% |
| EVC | $5.78 | $4.75 | $0.10 | -16.1% | 4.8% |
| SIMO | $46.88 | $45.36 | $0.30 | -2.6% | 4.8% |
| VIAB | $24.41 | $30.29 | $0.40 | 25.7% | 4.8% |
| Totals | 1.7% | 4.8% | |||
| 2/1/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $43.55 | $38.40 | $0.25 | -11.3% | -4.6% |
| CASA | $18.81 | $22.75 | $0.00 | 20.9% | -4.6% |
| KLAC | $109.80 | $106.66 | $0.59 | -2.3% | -4.6% |
| THO | $136.33 | $106.06 | $0.37 | -21.9% | -4.6% |
| WDC | $87.74 | $77.28 | $0.50 | -11.4% | -4.6% |
| Totals | -5.2% | -4.6% | |||
| 5/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CAAP | $12.19 | $11.27 | $0.00 | -7.5% | 1.3% |
| TGNA | $10.51 | $10.38 | $0.00 | -1.2% | 1.3% |
| DISCA | $23.85 | $23.16 | $0.00 | -2.9% | 1.3% |
| FTSI | $19.39 | $19.20 | $0.00 | -1.0% | 1.3% |
| ICHR | $21.96 | $23.74 | $0.00 | 8.1% | 1.3% |
| Totals | -0.9% | 1.3% |
Wow. Seems just like yesterday I was talking about how three of my four tranches were leading the benchmark. Now three of four are trailing. November has three names down 15%ish. February has THO down 22% and CASA has drifted down from being up 50%+ to "just" 21%. WDC is so so cheap at $77. Then May, just a week in is down 0.9%. I need to check to R3K number... not sure how it was up 1.3% (actually it is right).
I still have confidence in all my picks. But I have seen this happen before, just a month or two of large relative drops. It is humbling. Here is a table showing overall results, open and closed:
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 15.2% | 1.7% | -5.2% | -0.9% | 1.3% |
| Previous Tranche | -0.1% | 42.6% | 74.9% | -3.6% | 28.7% |
| Tranche -2 | 2.8% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 19.1% | 10.2% |
| Tranche -3 | 11.2% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 10.3% |
| Tranche -4 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 20.6% |
| Tranche -5 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 42.3% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 112.4% | 336.0% | 204.4% | 33.9% | 171.7% |
| Current Balance | 53,093 | 109,008 | 76,094 | 33,473 | 271,667 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 9.9% | 4.8% | -4.6% | 1.3% | 2.9% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 110.5% | 114.8% | 92.6% | 80.2% | 99.5% |
| R3K Balance | 52,635 | 53,701 | 48,147 | 45,055 | 199,537 |
| Annualized IRR | 14.1% | 30.9% | 23.6% | 6.0% | 18.6% |
You can see several key points here.
- My 4 current tranches are up in aggregate an uninspiring 1.3% versus 2.9% for Russell 3000.
- My Annualized IRR has fallen to 18.6% (it was pushing 21% just a month ago).
- With my hitting new May tranche, the previous tranche, previous tranche -2 etc is all filled in.
- When August hits anniversary, I will add a new row, (Tranche -6 for those not grasping the pattern).
Here is a table showing quarter by quarter hypothetical movements of a hypothetical $100,000 invested in the initial 4 tranches:
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| 1/1/2017 | 45.60% | 209,503 | 163,936 |
| 4/1/2017 | 55.70% | 229,473 | 173,735 |
| 7/1/2017 | 60.28% | 239,060 | 178,782 |
| 10/1/2017 | 75.60% | 262,489 | 186,886 |
| 1/1/2018 | 92.19% | 291,114 | 198,926 |
| 4/1/2018 | 96.21% | 293,665 | 197,451 |
| Current | 72.13% | 271,667 | 199,537 |
The keen-eyed reader will see that things have not been rosy since 4/1/18 - dropping from $293,665 to 271,667 at a time when the benchmark has been up a percentage point. If I were to note the turning point, it was when Taiwan Semi reduced guidance. That really hurt my tech names at the time (WDC, KLAC, QCOM, ICHR, SIMO).
Here are my stocks in the past week:
| Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| ICHR | 21.83 | 23.74 | - | 8.7% |
| SIMO | 46.20 | 45.36 | - | -1.8% |
| CASA | 22.81 | 22.75 | - | -0.3% |
| MSGN | 21.60 | 19.20 | - | -11.1% |
| VIAB | 30.75 | 30.29 | - | -1.5% |
| DISCA | 23.85 | 23.16 | - | -2.9% |
| AGX | 40.75 | 38.40 | - | -5.8% |
| KLAC | 102.18 | 106.66 | - | 4.4% |
| FTSI | 19.38 | 19.20 | - | -0.9% |
| CAAP | 12.19 | 11.27 | - | -7.5% |
| WDC | 80.88 | 77.28 | - | -4.5% |
| TGNA | 10.57 | 10.38 | - | -1.8% |
| RHI | 61.17 | 62.05 | - | 1.4% |
| THO | 107.78 | 106.06 | - | -1.6% |
| CELG | 91.18 | 86.89 | - | -4.7% |
| EVC | 4.80 | 4.75 | - | -1.0% |
| MD | 46.92 | 45.22 | - | -3.6% |
| GHC | 608.60 | 599.25 | - | -1.5% |
Bad week for MSGN as well. Here is a table showing since 4/1:
| Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| ICHR | 24.21 | 23.74 | - | -1.9% |
| SIMO | 48.12 | 45.36 | - | -5.7% |
| CASA | 29.34 | 22.75 | - | -22.5% |
| MSGN | 22.60 | 19.20 | - | -15.0% |
| VIAB | 29.20 | 30.29 | - | 3.7% |
| DISCA | 23.85 | 23.16 | - | -2.9% |
| AGX | 42.95 | 38.40 | - | -10.6% |
| KLAC | 109.01 | 106.66 | - | -2.2% |
| FTSI | 19.38 | 19.20 | - | -0.9% |
| CAAP | 12.19 | 11.27 | - | -7.5% |
| WDC | 92.27 | 77.28 | - | -16.2% |
| TGNA | 10.57 | 10.38 | - | -1.8% |
| RHI | 57.89 | 62.05 | - | 7.2% |
| THO | 115.17 | 106.06 | - | -7.9% |
| CELG | 89.21 | 86.89 | - | -2.6% |
| EVC | 4.70 | 4.75 | - | 1.1% |
| MD | 55.63 | 45.22 | - | -18.7% |
| GHC | 602.25 | 599.25 | - | -0.5% |
Oh yeah, I forgot about MD getting crushed by Chanos announcing his short. And CASA had a secondary offering. It has been a bad quarter.
MFI Formula
I wish I good say (after the depressing MFI Select) that things are better in MFI Formula (where as the name suggests I use a formula and random number generator to pick my stocks)... but it was struggle here as well this first week of May.
| 7/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $30.98 | $45.30 | $0.91 | 49.2% | 11.4% |
| GME | $20.95 | $13.00 | $1.14 | -32.5% | 11.4% |
| HPQ | $17.60 | $21.68 | $0.40 | 25.4% | 11.4% |
| RGR | $60.70 | $58.10 | $0.67 | -3.2% | 11.4% |
| SYNT | $16.21 | $29.35 | $0.00 | 81.1% | 11.4% |
| Totals | 24.0% | 11.4% | |||
| 10/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DIN | $43.14 | $77.54 | $1.60 | 83.4% | 6.7% |
| GILD | $82.85 | $65.42 | $1.09 | -19.7% | 6.7% |
| GME | $20.50 | $13.00 | $0.76 | -32.9% | 6.7% |
| HPQ | $20.22 | $21.68 | $0.27 | 8.5% | 6.7% |
| OMC | $74.80 | $74.58 | $1.15 | 1.2% | 6.7% |
| Totals | 8.1% | 6.7% | |||
| 1/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $177.11 | $167.98 | $1.32 | -4.4% | -0.2% |
| GME | $18.06 | $13.00 | $0.38 | -25.9% | -0.2% |
| GILD | $71.64 | $65.42 | $0.57 | -7.9% | -0.2% |
| HRB | $26.34 | $27.49 | $0.24 | 5.3% | -0.2% |
| OMC | $72.81 | $74.58 | $0.60 | 3.3% | -0.2% |
| Totals | -5.9% | -0.2% | |||
| 4/3/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $166.46 | $167.98 | $0.00 | 0.9% | 3.0% |
| VIAB | $29.20 | $30.29 | $0.00 | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| GILD | $72.71 | $65.42 | $0.00 | -10.0% | 3.0% |
| TUP | $47.32 | $44.27 | $0.00 | -6.5% | 3.0% |
| EGOV | $13.29 | $15.45 | $0.00 | 16.3% | 3.0% |
| Totals | 0.9% | 3.0% |
At least here two of four (50% for math challenged readers) are leading. EGOV had great earnings, GILD didn't.
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 8.1% | -5.9% | 0.9% | 24.0% | 5.5% |
| Previous Tranche | 7.0% | 16.5% | 21.3% | 26.7% | 17.7% |
| Tranche -2 | 5.5% | 9.3% | 25.2% | -12.5% | 6.9% |
| Tranche -3 | 0.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 22.6% | 32.9% | 52.8% | 37.5% | 36.5% |
| Current Balance | 306,315 | 332,269 | 382,367 | 343,412 | 1,364,363 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 6.7% | -0.2% | 3.0% | 11.4% | 5.2% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 43.1% | 34.6% | 33.5% | 29.8% | 35.2% |
| R3K Balance | 357,591 | 336,331 | 334,026 | 324,065 | 1,352,013 |
| Annualized IRR | 5.8% | 8.9% | 14.7% | 11.8% | 10.3% |
You can see current tranches are a push (5.5% to 5.2%). Overall close to a push as well (36.5% to 35.2%).
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| 1/1/2017 | 1.57% | 113,406 | 111,832 |
| 4/1/2017 | -1.86% | 116,227 | 118,091 |
| 7/1/2017 | -2.40% | 119,144 | 121,545 |
| 10/1/2017 | -2.56% | 124,448 | 127,007 |
| 1/1/2018 | -3.63% | 131,460 | 135,086 |
| 4/1/2018 | -0.16% | 133,734 | 133,898 |
| Current | 1.24% | 136,436 | 135,201 |
I am leading, so pleased about that. But definitely some give back last week as my lead was over 4% and has shrunken to 1.24%. As George Washington said to Alexander Hamilton, "beating the benchmark for a month is easy, beating it over time is hard".
Wait, that wasn't it, "Dying is easy, living is hard". Here are stocks for the week:
| Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| GILD | 73.86 | 65.42 | - | -11.4% |
| AMGN | 177.46 | 167.98 | - | -5.3% |
| OMC | 73.91 | 74.58 | - | 0.9% |
| GME | 13.86 | 13.00 | - | -6.2% |
| HPQ | 21.61 | 21.68 | - | 0.3% |
| VIAB | 30.75 | 30.29 | - | -1.5% |
| EGOV | 14.90 | 15.45 | - | 3.7% |
| TUP | 45.48 | 44.27 | - | -2.7% |
| DIN | 80.67 | 77.54 | - | -3.9% |
| SYNT | 28.99 | 29.35 | - | 1.2% |
| HRB | 28.22 | 27.49 | - | -2.6% |
| CSCO | 44.71 | 45.30 | - | 1.3% |
| RGR | 56.40 | 58.10 | - | 3.0% |
Keep in mind these are largely in descending order of size... so a -11.4% by GILD REALLY hurts.
Thus ends my discussion of MFI... hopefully next week has some better news/results.
Dividend Portfolio
Besides MFI, I also document the other two legs of my investing triathlon: Dividend and Miscellaneous. My dividend portfolio is my largest (a bit over 40%). I am retired and the goal here is to generate income for my wife and I to enjoy our golden years. So I am not as concerned with the value of the dividend portfolio as I am with making sure income is steadily increasing (and definitely not decreasing). That being said, no one likes to see (emotionally) values drop.
I try not to trade this portfolio (though I do make some changes at the margin and sometimes will add to holdings if I think prices are attractive). I benchmark against an index of 40 securities listed by Barron's in December. One should recognize that in a rising interest rate environment, income securities have a headwind. ie - there are a lot of people short treasuries and junk bonds.
| Dividend Stocks | Start | Current | Divvy | Overall Pct Gain | Weekly Pct Gain | 12/30/17 Price | Yield | 2018 | Adj 2018 |
| TK | 7.43 | 8.96 | 0.13 | 22.3% | 0.7% | 9.32 | 2.5% | -3.9% | 2.9% |
| OIBAX | 5.91 | 5.83 | 0.27 | 3.2% | -1.5% | 5.96 | 4.5% | -2.2% | -2.2% |
| LADR | 13.35 | 14.22 | 0.61 | 11.0% | 2.3% | 13.63 | 8.9% | 4.3% | 3.3% |
| KCLI | 48.14 | 40.77 | 0.79 | -13.7% | -0.6% | 45.25 | 2.6% | -9.9% | -9.4% |
| NS | 29.41 | 20.89 | 0.91 | -25.9% | -2.7% | 29.95 | 11.5% | -30.3% | -18.3% |
| CPLP | 3.50 | 3.08 | 0.22 | -5.8% | -4.6% | 3.36 | 10.4% | -8.3% | -8.0% |
| AMID | 11.87 | 9.95 | 0.59 | -11.2% | -14.6% | 13.35 | 16.6% | -25.5% | -16.4% |
| TGP | 18.28 | 17.75 | 0.28 | -1.3% | -3.3% | 20.15 | 3.2% | -11.9% | -11.5% |
| GLOP-PB | 25.36 | 25.87 | 0.33 | 3.3% | -1.6% | 25.36 | 8.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| KNOP | 21.30 | 20.25 | 1.04 | 0.0% | -1.7% | 20.75 | 10.3% | -2.4% | -2.4% |
| JQC | 8.18 | 8.12 | 0.80 | 9.1% | 1.1% | 8.22 | 6.1% | -1.2% | -1.2% |
| ISBC | 13.33 | 13.49 | 0.17 | 2.5% | -1.1% | 13.88 | 2.7% | -2.8% | -2.8% |
| PSXP | 47.39 | 49.07 | 2.42 | 8.7% | -1.6% | 52.35 | 5.8% | -6.3% | -6.3% |
| EVG | 14.46 | 13.32 | 0.64 | -3.5% | -1.9% | 14.35 | 6.9% | -7.2% | -7.2% |
| FDEU | 18.40 | 17.50 | 1.30 | 2.2% | -1.5% | 18.83 | 8.3% | -7.1% | -7.1% |
| NRZ | 16.56 | 17.94 | 1.67 | 18.4% | 3.4% | 17.88 | 11.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| SBRA | 22.15 | 19.21 | 0.62 | -10.5% | 4.6% | 18.77 | 9.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| DSL | 19.47 | 20.39 | 2.44 | 17.3% | 1.2% | 20.19 | 8.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| OCSI | 8.68 | 8.18 | 0.57 | 0.9% | 0.4% | 8.40 | 9.3% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| TGONF | 11.04 | 12.55 | 2.14 | 33.1% | -2.4% | 13.30 | 5.7% | -5.6% | -5.6% |
| TOO | 2.33 | 2.72 | 0.02 | 17.4% | 0.4% | 2.36 | 1.5% | 15.3% | 12.7% |
| DDR | 7.07 | 7.25 | - | 2.5% | -2.4% | 7.00 | 10.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| O | 26.04 | 52.27 | 21.44 | 183.1% | 1.6% | 57.02 | 5.0% | -8.3% | -8.2% |
| Totals | 2.7% | -1.2% | 7.0% | -1.0% |
A couple notes if I may. First I have change in 2018 and adjusted 2018. The adjusted column reflects that I have increased holdings at lowered prices in 2018... so yes TK is down 3.9%, but I increased my position significantly when it dropped under $8 and now it is pushing $9... so overall I am up 2.9% on TK in 2018. NS is similar.
Then this week AMID took a major haircut as they were downgraded by Moody's. Investors are (surely) taking that as a signal that the (now) 16.6% yield is not sustainable (AMID recently bought SXE). I do believe their cash flows will take a (hopefully temporary) hit... so a dividend cut is not off the table for AMID. If they do cut and take another major haircut, I will likely double down.
Here is the dividend index:
| Ticker | 12/30/2017 | Current | Dividend | YTD Change | Weekly Change | Yield |
| AMLP | 10.79 | 10.05 | 0.21 | -5.0% | -0.4% | 8.38% |
| NML | 9.38 | 8.61 | 0.22 | -5.9% | 0.9% | 7.67% |
| EPD | 26.51 | 26.71 | 0.84 | 3.9% | 0.9% | 6.36% |
| ETP | 17.92 | 17.50 | 0.57 | 0.8% | -2.5% | 12.65% |
| FDD | 13.73 | 14.15 | 0.15 | 4.1% | -1.8% | 2.45% |
| VGK | 59.15 | 60.00 | 0.38 | 2.1% | 0.5% | 2.67% |
| DDAIF | 84.57 | 79.30 | 3.25 | -2.4% | -0.4% | 5.67% |
| NVS | 83.96 | 76.69 | 2.75 | -5.4% | -0.8% | 3.89% |
| NOBL | 64.04 | 61.43 | 0.33 | -3.6% | -1.3% | 1.89% |
| VYM | 85.63 | 82.51 | 0.62 | -2.9% | -1.1% | 2.97% |
| MRK | 56.27 | 57.75 | 0.48 | 3.5% | -2.9% | 3.29% |
| PEP | 119.92 | 98.99 | 0.81 | -16.8% | -2.7% | 3.26% |
| VNQ | 82.98 | 77.23 | 0.98 | -5.8% | 1.1% | 4.69% |
| RQI | 12.65 | 11.49 | 0.32 | -6.6% | -0.1% | 4.77% |
| TCO | 65.43 | 56.75 | 0.63 | -12.3% | 3.0% | 4.47% |
| SLG | 100.93 | 99.92 | 0.78 | -0.2% | 1.3% | 3.18% |
| T | 38.88 | 32.14 | 0.98 | -14.8% | -2.7% | 6.16% |
| VZ | 52.93 | 48.19 | 1.12 | -6.8% | -6.6% | 4.89% |
| CHL | 50.54 | 47.06 | - | -6.9% | -1.0% | 3.90% |
| DTEGY | 17.66 | 17.43 | - | -1.3% | -1.4% | 3.92% |
| DSU | 11.70 | 11.37 | 0.28 | -0.5% | -1.0% | 4.21% |
| HIO | 5.07 | 4.85 | 0.12 | -2.1% | 0.6% | 4.59% |
| MUB | 110.74 | 108.25 | 1.05 | -1.3% | 0.3% | 2.29% |
| PRHYX | 6.76 | 6.57 | 0.12 | -1.0% | -0.5% | 5.40% |
| NEA | 13.75 | 12.94 | 0.24 | -4.1% | 1.0% | 5.50% |
| JNK | 36.72 | 35.71 | 0.83 | -0.5% | -0.4% | 5.60% |
| VWITX | 14.13 | 13.85 | 0.16 | -0.9% | 0.4% | 2.80% |
| PHMIX | 9.09 | 9.02 | 0.16 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.80% |
| UTG | 30.94 | 28.32 | 0.64 | -6.4% | -0.2% | 4.20% |
| XLU | 52.65 | 51.51 | 0.42 | -1.4% | -0.4% | 3.32% |
| DUK | 84.11 | 79.88 | 0.89 | -4.0% | -0.8% | 4.42% |
| EIX | 63.24 | 63.69 | 0.54 | 1.6% | -3.2% | 3.60% |
| PFF | 38.07 | 36.99 | 0.90 | -0.5% | -0.3% | 5.62% |
| JPC | 10.34 | 9.93 | 0.26 | -1.5% | 0.7% | 4.59% |
| WFC-PL | 1,309.99 | 1,285.48 | 18.75 | -0.4% | 0.4% | 5.80% |
| TIP | 114.08 | 112.10 | 1.05 | -0.8% | -0.4% | 2.67% |
| SHY | 83.85 | 83.19 | 0.40 | -0.3% | -0.1% | 1.16% |
| TLT | 126.86 | 118.99 | 1.28 | -5.2% | 0.1% | 2.61% |
| Totals | - | - | - | -2.9% | -0.5% | 4.43% |
Wow, pretty sobering. T is down 14.8% this year, VZ is down 6.8%, TCO (a big reit) is down 12.3% and even PEP is off 16.8%. These are like dividend aristocrats. The struggle here for those in search of income, my friend, is real.
A component of my Dividend portfolio is a basket of ten smaller banks. I still believe they are outsized beneficiaries of tax reform and also attractive buyout targets. All while giving my s respectable yield.
| Bank | Start | Current | Dividends | Change | 2018 Change | Yield |
| ACBI | 16.99 | 19.60 | - | 15.3% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| ASB | 25.69 | 26.35 | 0.15 | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| FBIZ | 23.69 | 25.99 | 0.28 | 10.9% | 17.5% | 2.2% |
| FULT | 18.81 | 17.25 | 0.23 | -7.0% | -3.6% | 2.8% |
| FNB | 14.47 | 12.92 | 0.12 | -9.9% | -6.5% | 3.7% |
| MSBI | 32.96 | 31.78 | 0.22 | -2.9% | -2.2% | 2.7% |
| NRIM | 37.47 | 36.20 | 0.45 | -2.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% |
| PACW | 48.30 | 52.02 | 0.50 | 8.7% | 3.2% | 4.7% |
| SONA | 17.13 | 16.98 | 0.08 | -0.4% | 5.9% | 2.1% |
| WNEB | 10.88 | 10.95 | 0.04 | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.5% |
| Total | 1.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
Hey, look at that! Up 3.7% in 2018. Better than Pepsi!
Miscellaneous
My final portfolio is Miscellaneous. It is just that. No rules. Definitely buy and sell more. Use
some options. Some higher risk names. It has generally not worked well for me but I am ever hopeful (it is the smallest $ allocation of my 3). It did have a very good week, up 2.3%. And a better quarter, up 5.7%. This is despite selling some holdings that exploded upwards right after I sold (yes, seller's remorse). A couple examples: EGC is up 63% since I sold, GCAP is up 15% and WLL is up a staggering 89%. Arghh!
 |
| Arghh! |
Still let us focus on the positive. My outsized SSW has been great (two tranches up 40% and 28%). That is now capped as I sold November $7.50 calls for 90 cents (I should have waited 2 more days.... Argh!!!).
OMER, a speculative pharma play, was up 9% this week. And my other large shipping play, NMM was up 6% this week. Then finally, I have a basket of gold/mining stocks here (like my bank basket in dividend) that is doing pretty darned well as well:
| Miner | Start | Current | Change | 2018 Change |
| TORXF | 9.90 | 9.97 | 0.7% | 4.9% |
| SAND | 4.48 | 4.74 | 5.8% | -5.0% |
| NSU | 2.38 | 2.95 | 23.9% | 20.9% |
| KLDX | 2.41 | 2.47 | 2.5% | -5.4% |
| KL | 14.49 | 18.69 | 29.0% | 21.7% |
| GSS | 0.87 | 0.70 | -19.7% | -21.8% |
| FSM | 4.24 | 5.73 | 35.1% | 9.8% |
| EXK | 2.14 | 2.86 | 33.6% | 19.7% |
| BTG | 2.61 | 2.83 | 8.4% | -8.7% |
| EGO | 1.18 | 1.01 | -14.4% | -29.4% |
| Total | 10.5% | 0.7% |
It is funny, I would have sworn it was doing better in 2018 than the banks (losing 0.7% to 3.7%, though leading overall - both were started around December 1st). That is because these mining names are so volatile. Since mid March they are up 19%!
Did I mention today is a glorious Spring Day? Going to listen to rest of John Mellencamp's Scarecrow (long attention span) and then head out for a bike ride. Have a great weekend.
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