Wednesday, December 04, 2013

Here Yesterday, Gone Today

Bit of a housecleaning day for me based on my ranking post yesterday.  I rated TCRD and ABR at the bottom of my 18 core holdings.  I felt their upside was limited, so I have sold them today at 16.67 and   6.50. So I actually made an okay return on TCRD, about 16% in 5+ months. ABR was essentially flat.

While selling those positions, I was looking at all my holdings in my Fidelity account and saw a name I did not realize I had bought. MGA was a stock I had put a buy order on if it dropped to 80.18. This was back when it was five percent higher. It had been out there for two months and frankly I had forgotten about it. It was triggered on Monday. They are an interesting company and at $80 they look reasonably cheap. That being said, buying them ran counter to my goal of paring down a bit. A I sold them today. I made $77. Woo-hoo!

TC-PT took a major haircut today. TD, a large Toronto bank slapped a fifty cent price target on TC. I took the time to read a ML report on TC to see what all this bankruptcy/additional capital talk is about.  The street seems to have lost some faith in management as the Mt Milligan project has been pushed back a quarter and TC is burning through cash.  Looking at everything, I did not feel it was dire yet,  but it is easy to run scenarios where Moly and Copper prices drop and TC is in a world of hurt. That is really the problem with mining, you have fixed costs in getting the stuff out of the ground. So if prices drop, your income is quickly levered down much more than the actual commodity price drop. So despite my bluster about potentially adding to TCPT with a price drop, I will adopt a wait and see approach. I may miss a quick upside move, but to me that is preferable to buying the proverbial falling knife.  It will be interesting to see if investor relations at TC does something to stem the bleeding. The longer they wait to do that, the more you wonder if there is fire to go with all the smoke.

4 comments:

Unknown said...

Good morning! I was wondering if there is a way to post a small spreadsheet snippet? I have been running a trial MFI test using LEAPS (long in the money call options) and I thought you and your readers might be interested. Just thinkin' Karl N

Marsh_Gerda said...

Karl - if you send it to me, I could post it. send it to marshgerda@outlook.com

Unknown said...

Thanks. I will try to get something to you before the weekend is out. Karl

Unknown said...

Just sent you an email. Hope it arrives and makes some sense. Karl N