Tuesday, November 30, 2010

November Comes to a Close

Not a great month for stock picking. I bought too many Chinese stocks in the month (NEP, SCEI, JGBO and CEU. They were down an average of 17%! Still, I managed a 2% gain for the month as the rest of the portfolio carried the day.

I do have three interesting tables/charts to share.

Interesting Table/Chart 1

This shows how the 47 stocks in my MFI index have fared for the year and this week (note how well QCOR and GTLS have done):

Stock Start Last Week Current YTD Change Weekly Change
amed 48.60 29.00 28.39 -41.6% -2.1%
ARO 22.70 26.90 27.05 19.2% 0.6%
CBI 20.22 28.18 28.33 40.1% 0.5%
CBPO 12.08 10.92 11.56 -4.3% 5.9%
CBST 18.97 23.34 21.69 14.3% -7.1%
CEU 6.12 4.41 2.70 -55.9% -38.8%
CF 90.38 122.81 120.74 33.6% -1.7%
CHKE 16.77 20.64 19.69 17.4% -4.6%
CYTK 2.91 2.23 2.21 -24.1% -0.9%
DLX 14.06 22.19 21.19 50.7% -4.5%
ELNK 7.87 9.08 8.96 13.9% -1.3%
EME 26.90 26.38 26.79 -0.4% 1.6%
ENDP 20.52 35.35 36.03 75.6% 1.9%
EPAX 13.05 10.59 11.02 -15.6% 4.1%
ESI 95.96 59.99 58.50 -39.0% -2.5%
EXBD 22.56 34.27 34.68 53.7% 1.2%
FIX 12.17 11.35 11.18 -8.1% -1.5%
FLR 44.66 57.59 57.84 29.5% 0.4%
FRX 32.11 31.85 31.85 -0.8% 0.0%
FWLT 29.44 28.78 28.00 -4.9% -2.7%
GHM 20.62 17.01 16.44 -20.3% -3.4%
GME 21.94 20.50 19.90 -9.3% -2.9%
GTLS 16.52 28.45 31.60 91.3% 11.1%
IDCC 26.56 34.12 33.10 24.6% -3.0%
IMMU 3.21 3.20 3.15 -1.9% -1.6%
JTX 4.40 0.83 0.85 -80.7% 2.4%
LO 76.95 83.52 79.80 3.7% -4.5%
NSR 23.04 26.66 25.85 12.2% -3.0%
PDLI 5.89 5.77 5.80 -1.5% 0.5%
PPD 41.08 61.86 64.69 57.5% 4.6%
PRGX 5.91 5.86 5.83 -1.4% -0.5%
PRIM 7.88 8.64 8.83 12.1% 2.2%
QCOR 4.75 14.73 14.24 199.8% -3.3%
RGR 9.49 16.10 16.00 68.6% -0.6%
RTN 50.37 46.48 46.23 -8.2% -0.5%
SNTA 5.06 4.13 4.29 -15.2% 3.9%
SOLR 5.56 7.09 6.68 20.1% -5.8%
TSRA 23.27 20.65 19.87 -14.6% -3.8%
ttt 10.01 14.62 14.36 43.5% -1.8%
UEPS 19.40 12.04 12.16 -37.3% 1.0%
UNTD 6.76 6.20 6.37 -5.8% 2.7%
USMO 10.43 16.70 16.98 62.8% 1.7%
UTA 10.56 6.26 6.24 -40.9% -0.3%
VALV 5.15 6.92 6.72 30.5% -2.9%
VCLK 10.12 15.76 15.56 53.8% -1.3%
VGR 13.09 18.65 18.27 39.6% -2.0%
WTW 28.61 34.36 34.25 19.7% -0.3%
Totals 9,666 11,162 11,049 14.3% -1.0%

Interesting Table/Chart #2

This chart shows the MFI index from inception:


Interesting Table/Chart #3

Here is the same chart for just the year 2010. Note I have added my actual portfolio on the chart as well. It is quite volatile... obviously too many stocks in the high risk category!

I did sell my TTT today. I had owned them over a year and have had a very nice gain. I have started to worry that the Bush tax cuts will not be extended, so it made sense to take my tax hit in the 2010 year at a long term rate of 15%. Still like the stock. So I am officially 7% in cash.

Paying Dividends

Not sure what to buy right now, I am leaning towards re-buying IDCC, especially if they become a dividend payer. Finally, I did buy STD today at 9.64 (obviously not as part of my MFI portfolio as I felt their 20% sell-off of late was over done and they were on my long term watch list as I am building up a dividend portfolio for retirement. (note I also have SLF, BNS, DD, VR, PHI, AZN, TOT, SDRL, CVX, SCCO, PG and PVD on my watch list while owning USB, STD, LNC, CSQ, RNR-PC, ENH-PA, OIBAX, O, WBK, SLRC and XOM along with my MFI divvy stocks).

Finally, speaking of dividends, I did get good news from KSW today as they announced an unexpected dividend (KSW, Inc. Declares Cash Dividend). So they will have paid a 10 cent dividend in June and now this 7 cent dividend in December, which is 17 cents or about 5%... which is unusual for a micro-cap stock. I still think they'll make me some money... some day.

2 comments:

  1. Marsh, is my simple math right: if your index had failed to include those top two stocks, the average gain for the basket would drop from 14.3% to 8.5%, while if the two biggest losing stocks were dropped, then the average gain would increase from 14.3% to 17.9%, right? If that's right, it's a great example of why picking and choosing stocks and being just slightly wrong will totally wreck your portfolio (or at least cause it to significantly underperform).

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  2. You are absolutely correct. The std deviation of the 47 stocks is about 45%, which is large (the average over time is still large, about 39%). So the inclusion or exclusion of a particular stock in a particular year can make a material difference in results in a one year time frame. Theoretically, over time that would even out if you stick with MFI after a few JTX picks.

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