Friday, May 11, 2007

Royal Flush

Terrible day. Actually my 2nd worst day of the year, down right at 2%. I suspect we'll see more selling pressure during May.

KG announced earnings Thursday morning (King Pharmaceuticals 1Q Profit Jumps). I thought the numbers were outstanding. The stock was up a couple pct early but ended up down over 2%. I can't say I really understand it. Glad they didn't have a bad report!

ANF had worse than expected same store sales (Abercrombie April same-store sales down 15 pct), yet they were pne of my few stocks in the green. Weird.

My sidecar is sitting in a lot of cash. I will still wait a bit and see if there are some MFI stocks in the bargain bin.

Wednesday, May 09, 2007

Stock News

Quick update

  • TRLG moved up the 10% I predicted for a while today, but ended up 6.4%
  • FTO in minting money, but stock dropped. The table is set for big quarter next time. I am definitely renewing next week and hope it stays a little depressed so I can add some shares cheap to round out position.
  • AEO announced after the bell they had -10% SSS. The past two months have been weird as they were +20% last month. I suspect it is related to Easter. AEO still expects to hit 21 to 25% groeth in EPS this quarter. If it drops tomorrow I may add to sidecar.
  • EGY had poor earnings due to spending $5m on exploration. If they find anything (they need some new oil) it'll be money well-spent.
  • UNTD announced their CFO resigned.

Now you're up-to-date!

Tuesday, May 08, 2007

Mucho Earnings

A lot going on. I'll try and keep it short and to the point.
  • ORCT - they announced their earings this morning (Orckit Communications Posts 1Q Loss). Not only did they post a loss, but announced they'll have a 2nd quarter loss. This is clearly no longer an MFI stock. I only had three weeks to go and decided to sell them today. I won't miss them, though I only lost about 5%.
  • PNCL - also posted earnings (Pinnacle net drops in first quarter). They did ok, but they do have increased costs from a new pilto contract and do seem to be having trouble getting enough qualified pilots.
  • TRLG - posted earnings this evening (True Religion Reiterates Guidance). I felt they were strong. This is a $15.50 stock that will earn $1.25 a share, grow 20% and is setting the table for big growth. A lot of people are short this stock and it could explode up 10% tomorrow.
  • NOOF - announced their 1st quarterly dividend today (New Frontier Media Sets Dividend). It was 12.5 cents, so that is 50 cents against a $9.00 stock. 5.6%, sounds great to moi!
  • FTO - They will announce their earnings tomorrow (Foolish Forecast: Frontier Oil Saddles Up). I am expecting big things. They come up for their 1 year in a week. I expect I will re-up for a 2nd year.
Where are they now?
TGIS has crashed and burned since I sold them. I can't believe this stock is $8.68. I did the math, they are not listed in MFI as the 4th quarter has a bunch of "n/a"s. But even if you assumed they made $0 in 4th quarter, they would still be in the top 50 easily. I am buying some for my non-MFI portfolio.
MSTR announced earnings today and crashed 11$ to $103. Sure glad I sold at $128.
ELX has moved up nicely since I sold them, as has DLX and PGI. AVCI clearly fell from grace. Finally, UST has dropped from $60 to $55... it looks like the 1 year rules worked nicely there. Though if it drops much lowre I'll have to think about bringing it back!

Sunday, May 06, 2007

Just Stuff

Thought I'd catch up on miscellaneous stuff.

Just Listed - I did start a Just Listed Tracking Portfolio. Too soon to say if it is good or bad. Remember it adds a stock that is new to the MFI 100 stocks over 1M List that I have tracked since June 2006. So far 8 stocks are on the list:

SymbolName
-

-

52.32

191

$9,802.12

ABC
AMERISOURCEBERGEN CP
-

-

4.02

2,500

$9,775.00

HRSH
HIRSCH INTL CP CL
-

-

9.36

1,068

$10,071.24

PDII
PDI INC
-

-

12.84

779

$10,430.81

WPCS
WPCS INTL INC
-

-

27.54

363

$10,312.83

TZOO
TRAVELZOO INC
-

-

46.50

215

$9,935.15

BBY
BEST BUY CO INC
-

-

9.99

1,000

$9,700.00

CSPI
CSP INC
-

-

3.39

295

$994.15

TRXI
TRX, INC.

HRSH is a strange one. They released their earnings and for some reason they compared 3 months against 2 months from a year ago (they are switching report dates or something.). I did not check, but I wondered if MFI is picking up a 13 month income statement. I know AP messed up (Hirsch 1Q Profit More Than Doubles). It didn't really double as they had 50% more days. I did remove Kelly Services as they were on the list in error.

Here is the current 100 over $1m list:

Top 100 companies with a minimum market cap. of $1 million
Companies are listed in alphabetical order
Name (in alphabetical order) Ticker Market Cap
($ Millions)
Pre Tax
Earnings Yield
Pre Tax
Return on Capital
Price
From
Most Recent
Quarter Data
Accenture Ltd ACN 23,195.25 8% > 100% 05/05 02/28
Advocat Inc AVCA 78.90 14% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
Aeropostale Inc. ARO 2,146.37 9% 75 - 100% 05/05 01/31
Agilysys Inc AGYS 672.26 11% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
Alloy Inc ALOY 167.17 9% > 100% 05/05 01/31
Amedisys Inc AMED 919.02 9% > 100% 05/05 03/31
American Eagle Outfitters Inc. AEO 6,368.55 10% > 100% 05/05 01/31
American Science and Engineering Inc. ASEI 455.11 10% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
AmerisourceBergen Corp ABC 9,721.65 9% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Applied Materials Inc. AMAT 27,588.26 9% 75 - 100% 05/05 01/31
Arden Group Inc ARDNA 420.54 10% 75 - 100% 05/05 12/31
Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc AVR 801.38 15% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
Avici Systems Inc AVCI 108.64 47% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Axcan Pharma Inc AXCA 817.66 10% > 100% 05/05 12/31
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust BPT 1,368.10 13% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Barrett Business Services Inc BBSI 259.98 12% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Best Buy Co. Inc. BBY 22,269.85 10% 50 - 75% 05/05 02/28
CSP Inc CSPI 36.19 17% 25 - 50% 05/05 12/31
Cellstar Corp CLST 54.51 16% 50 - 75% 05/05 11/30
Claire's Stores Inc. CLE 3,040.78 9% 75 - 100% 05/05 01/31
Cox Radio Inc. CXR 1,382.64 9% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Crown Crafts Inc CRWS 38.25 20% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
Cryptologic Inc CRYP 410.18 8% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Encore Wire Corp WIRE 692.06 23% 25 - 50% 05/05 03/31
Equifax Inc. EFX 5,118.75 8% > 100% 05/05 03/31
ExlService Holdings Inc EXLS 239.89 10% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
ExpressJet Holdings Inc. XJT 329.88 53% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
FTD Group Inc FTD 519.78 8% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Footstar Inc. FTAR 97.29 999% 75 - 100% 05/05 12/31
Fording Canadian Coal Trust FDG 3,848.46 12% 75 - 100% 05/05 03/31
Frontier Oil Corp. FTO 3,958.04 15% 75 - 100% 05/05 12/31
Great Northern Iron Ore Properties GNI 160.28 10% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Gymboree Corp (The) GYMB 1,240.94 10% 50 - 75% 05/05 01/31
Hasbro Inc. HAS 5,260.34 9% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Headwaters Inc HW 894.40 12% 50 - 75% 05/05 03/31
Heidrick & Struggles International Inc HSII 865.91 8% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Hercules Offshore Inc HERO 1,040.06 18% 25 - 50% 05/05 03/31
Hirsch International Corp. HRSH 33.65 13% 50 - 75% 05/05 03/31
Holly Corp HOC 3,491.61 11% 75 - 100% 05/05 12/31
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBMFF 2,746.50 16% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
Hurco Companies Inc HURC 287.77 10% 50 - 75% 05/05 01/31
Image Sensing Systems Inc ISNS 56.90 10% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Imperial Sugar Co IPSU 316.87 32% 25 - 50% 05/05 12/31
Intevac Inc IVAC 446.01 16% > 100% 05/05 03/31
JAKKS Pacific Inc JAKK 696.64 16% 75 - 100% 05/05 03/31
Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Inc JTX 920.25 9% > 100% 05/05 01/31
King Pharmaceuticals Inc. KG 5,118.33 14% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Korn/Ferry International KFY 1,056.15 10% > 100% 05/05 01/31
Lexmark International Inc. LXK 5,220.54 11% 50 - 75% 05/05 03/31
MOCON Inc MOCO 59.22 11% 75 - 100% 05/05 12/31
Maidenform Brands Inc MFB 481.35 10% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
Mannatech Inc MTEX 381.36 12% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Meredith Corp MDP 2,800.03 9% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Metal Management Inc MM 1,319.39 12% 25 - 50% 05/05 12/31
Methanex Corp MEOH 2,651.86 29% 25 - 50% 05/05 03/31
NATCO Group Inc NTG 692.60 9% 75 - 100% 05/05 03/31
Nathan's Famous Inc NATH 87.56 10% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Net 1 Ueps Technologies Inc UEPS 1,284.05 8% > 100% 05/05 12/31
New Frontier Media Inc NOOF 212.10 11% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Northgate Minerals Corp NXG 880.34 21% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
Nucor Corp NUE 19,676.04 14% 50 - 75% 05/05 03/31
OPTi Inc OPTI 59.33 16% > 100% 05/05 12/31
OmniVision Technologies Inc OVTI 817.52 11% 75 - 100% 05/05 01/31
Optimal Group Inc OPMR 208.92 24% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Overhill Farms Inc OFI 103.82 11% 25 - 50% 05/05 12/31
PDI Inc PDII 132.76 41% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
PW Eagle Inc PWEI 384.79 19% 50 - 75% 05/05 03/31
Pacer International Inc PACR 918.97 11% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Palm Inc PALM 1,721.44 8% > 100% 05/05 02/28
Patterson-UTI Energy Inc PTEN 4,005.94 25% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
PetMed Express Inc PETS 268.56 9% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Pinnacle Airlines Corp PNCL 376.04 20% 75 - 100% 05/05 12/31
Pioneer Cos Inc. PONR 346.18 25% 25 - 50% 05/05 12/31
Precision Drilling Trust PDS 3,195.51 16% 25 - 50% 05/05 12/31
Prestige Brands Holdings Inc PBH 648.06 9% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Psychemedics Corp PMD 94.78 9% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Quest Diagnostics Inc DGX 9,417.10 10% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Select Comfort Corp SCSS 892.91 9% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Southern Copper Corp PCU 24,781.84 13% 75 - 100% 05/05 03/31
TODCO THE 2,696.55 11% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
Taseko Mines Ltd TGB 449.59 11% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
Teck Cominco Ltd TCK 35,044.64 9% 75 - 100% 05/05 03/31
Tesoro Corp TSO 7,942.40 17% 25 - 50% 05/05 12/31
Timberland Co (The) TBL 1,597.25 12% 50 - 75% 05/05 12/31
Travelzoo Inc TZOO 433.25 8% > 100% 05/05 03/31
True Religion Apparel Inc TRLG 345.03 14% > 100% 05/05 12/31
USA Mobility Inc USMO 611.60 13% 75 - 100% 05/05 12/31
USANA Health Sciences Inc USNA 713.47 10% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Utah Medical Products Inc UTMD 124.02 10% 75 - 100% 05/05 03/31
Vaalco Energy Inc EGY 326.85 25% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Value Line Inc VALU 505.99 9% > 100% 05/05 01/31
Vector Group Ltd VGR 1,046.52 10% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Verigy Ltd VRGY 1,514.08 10% > 100% 05/05 01/31
Versant Corp VSNT 65.32 8% > 100% 05/05 01/31
Viacom Inc VIA.B 28,643.02 8% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Wayside Technology Group WSTG 74.50 10% > 100% 05/05 03/31
Western Digital Corp WDC 4,049.26 13% 50 - 75% 05/05 03/31
Westwood One Inc. WON 624.73 8% > 100% 05/05 12/31
Williams Controls Inc WMCO 132.46 12% 75 - 100% 05/05 12/31
Wpcs International Inc WPCS 88.59 9% 75 - 100% 05/05 01/31

FTAR must be having some problems with the calculation. I don't think they really have a 999% EY. I do think they belong on the list, I suspect the special dividend isn't being accounted for correctly.

I remember a year ago, some people thought that JG himself reviewed this list and weeded it out a bit. These types of errors tell me it is really just a computer churning away.

WSTG was strange for me this week. They paid a dividend even though they nevr sent out a press release regarding the dividend. Glad to get it, I was wondering if one would be paid.

Friday, May 04, 2007

A Bad Two Weeks - Catch Up Blog

Since I was lazy last week and didn't publish my graph and charts, I'll start off with them 1st thing. The chart is a thing of ugliness the past two weeks, though it even looked worse after Tuesday's fiasco.


As you may remember, the chart shows how much $ my portfolio has made versus a hypothetical Russell 3000 benchmark portfolio. The magenta line shows my gains. As you can see, I had moved about $10,000 ahead of them. I am now about $9,500 behind. That sharp drop in the magenta line is not a good thing. Plenty of weeks to go though!

I did buy AEO today. It was a steal at $28.40. I am thrilled to get them so cheaply. PNCL was pared back and has been reset in my charts. As a reminder, I "sell" all stocks after a year and they go into the sold/closed bucket. Then PNCL now shows up as a new stock with a new price. This way my closed position always shows annual closed postions and in time the return on closed stocks should approach my annual IRR. Then my open positions are always under a year old. In reality, I sold a portion of my PNCL. I hope I have explained my approach clearly. So the chart below shows my current portfolio, the dates bought and pct change including dividends. The bottom part shows my gains on closed positions (about 20 stocks) along with overall gains and comparison with the benchmark:

Current Portfolio
Stock Purchase Date Cost Current Gain
VPHM 09/11/06 $11.79 $16.08 36.4%
TGB 03/27/07 $2.64 $3.50 32.6%
CHKE 05/16/06 $37.55 $46.95 32.2%
FTO 05/15/06 $28.76 $35.87 25.3%
KG 05/31/06 $17.31 $21.05 21.6%
LRCX 02/26/07 $46.66 $55.70 19.4%
BBSI 09/06/06 $19.56 $23.12 18.9%
ISNS 07/07/06 $13.17 $15.37 16.7%
PDS 03/01/07 $22.58 $25.41 14.0%
MTEX 05/22/06 $13.11 $14.44 12.7%
UNTD 05/01/07 $14.46 $16.02 10.8%
WSTG 04/16/07 $14.83 $15.98 8.7%
ASEI 10/05/06 $45.85 $49.63 8.2%
ANF 03/05/07 $74.81 $80.12 7.1%
CREL 02/26/07 $12.50 $13.15 5.2%
NOOF 04/27/07 $8.50 $8.86 4.2%
GVHR 04/03/07 $19.17 $19.65 3.0%
AEO 05/04/07 $28.40 $28.78 1.3%
BLDR 09/18/06 $15.91 $16.08 1.1%
THO 03/26/07 $40.30 $40.36 0.1%
PNCL 05/02/07 $17.07 $17.03 -0.2%
JTX 04/09/07 $28.70 $28.48 -0.8%
SHOO 01/17/07 $32.36 $31.25 -3.4%
ORCT 06/02/06 $11.83 $11.29 -4.6%
DGX 02/26/07 $52.11 $48.92 -5.9%
HW 02/27/07 $24.00 $21.23 -11.5%
TRLG 06/13/06 $17.02 $15.00 -11.9%
PACR 02/26/07 $28.26 $24.74 -11.9%
EGY 02/05/07 $6.42 $5.54 -13.7%
FDG 05/31/06 $34.03 $26.18 -14.3%
IVAC 03/06/07 $26.12 $21.05 -19.4%
RAIL 05/26/06 $58.18 $46.37 -20.0%
EZEN.OB 06/19/06 $2.84 $1.70 -40.0%
OVTI 05/31/06 $27.79 $14.89 -46.4%





Gain/Loss Open Positions ($):
$9,885
Gain/Loss Open Positions (%):
2.1%
Gain/Loss Closed Positions ($):
$46,167
Gain/Loss Closed Positions (%):
21.2%
Total Gain/Loss ($):
$56,052
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($):
$65,452
Annual IRR:
16.8%
Total Gain/Loss (%):
13.7%

PACR got pummelled today. Down about 10% based on their earnings. That means I had two disasters this week between PACR and IVAC. Thankfully stocks like PDS and TGB (note from table above TGB is up about 32%) had solid days and despite PACR I actually outperformed the indices.

Other MFI news

TGIS was sold by me just in time as it hit its anniversary on Monday. Down 10% today for no reason at all. I do still have some in sidecar, which is a drag.

CECO and WON had great days today. They powered my Blue Light Special Portfolios (the January one is up 12.7% vs 6% for benchmark, I wish my portfolio was doing so well). First here is the January Portfolio I created (reminder Blue Light Stocks are MFI stocks that had dropped at least 15% and were still MFI stocks):


Then the March Blue Light Portfolio had a spurt and is now up 11.2% to 8.8% for the benchmark. These sleepy stocks that have been on MFI lists forever can still have some juice!


MTEX reported earnings after the bell today (strange to do it on a Friday afternoon). They seemed pretty good to me (Mannatech, Inc. Reports First Quarter 2007 EPS Increase of 18.2%, Net Sales up 5.9%), though I seem to have been snakebit lately. They did go up about 5% this evening. May be good timing for me as MTEX is up for its one year around May 20th. I haven't decided whether to renew.

Well, I have rambled long enough. I do have more to ramble on, so perhaps I'll post more tomorrow. Now to go drown my sorrow over the Mavericks losing to the Warriors.

Thursday, May 03, 2007

Mind Your Ps

Two of my "P" stocks to discuss today.

PNCL - ends its first year with me as my best MFI stock. I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but it'll end up over 140%. I will renew them as they are still easily on the list and I like their prospects. But I will pare back the shares to me new starting holding. I will have enough left over to buy another stock. I am leaning towards AEO. I wanted to buy a stock over $1b as my last series of stocks have been small caps. They seem to have a great strategy, same store sales steadily growing 10%+. Finally they have dropped in price recently (7.5% since I set up my Hit the Road Portfolio).

PACR - they announced their earnings this evening (UPDATE - Pacer quarterly profit falls nearly 44 percent). And despite lowering everyone's expectations, the numbers still seemed less than stellar. They dropped 90 cents after hours, we'll see what happens tomorrow. I did have the fortune to sell my PACR sidecar holdings today at lunch when they had gone up $1.30. It was a nice gain, offsetting some of the pain from IVAC earlier this week.

Tomorrow I promise to remember to post my weekly charts and graphs. Then my next two stocks come up for their anniversaries May 15th and 16th: FTO and CHKE. They have each done very well, have to pick two new winners!

Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Burst of Speed

My portfolio made its best move of the year. Actually dollar-wise, I think it was my best one day move ever. Overall I was up about 1.8%.

UNTD - had a great 1st full day in my portfolio. Up like the rocket (10%) that Stockpickr predicted (Stockpickr: 10 Rocket Stocks for the Long Haul). I had been following UNTD since Septmeber when I bought ASEI.

VPHM - had a very positive earnings report (ViroPharma 1Q Profit Beats Analyst View) and was up 7.8%.

PNCL and ORCT were both up around 7% on no news.

Finally HW and IVAC bounced back a bit from their dreadful day yesterday.

When I sell PNCL on Friday, I will have sold 19 stocks for an average gain of 24%. The next two on deck to be sold in mid-May are CHKE and FTO, they are both up 25 to 30% as well. So it is safe to say that my first 21 MFI sold stocks are a rousing success. Then I will get into the mistakes of the end of May early June 2006 when I picked about five straight duds (FDG, OVTI, EZEN and RAIL to name names... PTSC was the 5th but is already sold, thankfully). Perhaps these laggards will rally a bit during the next month.

I continue to search for the holy grail to improve on MFI. No luck. Even my Blue Light Special is starting to look not so special. I looked at about 250 stocks from my monthly portfolios from last year that are a year old. Overall they were up 16%. If you waited and only bought stocks that dropped 15%, you'd be up 16%. Not too encouraging. I also took a random day from JWs 100 stock list from last summer. I then assumed you waited a month and bought the stocks. I split the 100 stocks into 3 groups, the 33 up the most in the first month, those down the most and the 34 in the middle. From that point on, the performance of the three groups was essentially the same. The more I look, the more convinced I am that the holy grail doesn't exist, that lead can not be turned into gold... you get the picture. But I shall continue to look. I started a 100 stock portfolio today and listed a bunch of attributes (PEG, short ratio, price to sales, dividend yield), we'll see in a year if any of those were decent predictors.

I haven't given up on my backtest study, but my friend who knows Perl hasn't gotten to it yet! You can't find good help for free nowadays!

I will be keeping PNCL at the end of this week, but paring back my holdings as I am up like 160%. I will have enough $ left over to buy one more stock. Not sure what I'll pick. All my recent stocks have been small caps. I may buy a larger stock (perhaps AEO or NUE?) to keep some balance.

Tuesday, May 01, 2007

Marathon vs Sprint

No it isn't an Oil Conglomerate versus a Wireless Phone Company. Rather I recognize I need to view MFI investing as a marathon. I certainly hope it is a marathon, as I have lost the 1st sprint. I got trounced again today thanks to IVAC (Intevac Shares Slide on Weak Forecast) down 18%! Then HW announced their earnings today, they seemed good to me (InPlay: Headwaters beats by $0.31; reaffirms for FY07) but they were down 2.8%. Then RAIL also had earnings (FreightCar 1Q Profit Increases 7 Percent) announced and promptly dropped 2.8%. HW and RAIL were strange as they were both up 5% in pre-dawn trading. Obviously naive traders!

SHOO was my good story for the day (Steve Madden 1Q Net Income Falls) and was up almost 6%. Pretty funny, they had the worst headline, yet the best day.

I did sell TGIS and PONR today (PONR only had 5 days to run and is in the red) and I bought NOOF and UNTD. So I now trail the Russell benchmark by over $13K. But it isn't a sprint. So take a deep breath. I already have some good news. IVAC bounced back a bit AH. Then UNTD had decent earnings after the bell... I think! PNCL will be my next stock to sell, May 4th is their anniversary. I will likely hold them, but pare back my holdings.

Monday, April 30, 2007

Lead Balloon

Talk about the wheels falling off! Another bleak day. Now in the past two weeks I have given back about 18K of my gains... and I went from being 10K in front of the benchmark to over 10K behind. Yes, my confidence in the formula is shaken. To add fuel to the raging fire:

IVAC was down 10% in AH trading (Intevac sees Q2 earnings below Wall Street view). Their earnings didn't "seem" bad. I suppose it was their backlog. Some good news would be welcomed.

Tomorrow is my 1 year anniversary of TGIS. It is not exactly at its Zenith. I am up about 7% with dividends (I recall being up close to 50% at one time). I will sell tomorrow per the rules. I will likely add NOOF. I hope things get better, but I expect May to be a rocky month in the markets... sigh. Good thing my insurance stocks in my non MFI portfolio are doing well! AXS posted solid numbers this evening!

Friday, April 27, 2007

Wah!

Wah! What a dreadful week for me and my MFI portfolio. It was so bad, I don't think I will post my weekly graph... yet. Down 1.3% today while benchmarks were flat. ISNS was down over 10% in a real head-scratcher. Yes, the markets just go nuts some time. I am sure I'll make it up over the next two weeks, but it is a wee bit frustrating. Wow, even BBSI was down 7.5%. I may have to buy some on Monday, that is ridiculous!

In other news, I sent a note to my buddy in California (a famous net personality). He has agreed to write Perl Script for me to pull 5 years of historical data from the Fidelity data bases for a universe of stocks. Once I have that, I can calculate historical ROICs and EYs and backtest the MF. Assuming it works, I can then use the data pulled to see if there are any leading indicators of better than average performance.

I do know it won't be quite perfect. I expect my data may have re-statements. I will also just be working with the universe of stocks today rather than what was there 5 years ago.

Randy in Yahoo Groups posted 2 great links to get data which feeds directly into an Excel spreadsheet:

http://ogres-crypt.com/php/fidelity-financials-all.php?sym=OPMR&per=a&wb=y
http://ogres-crypt.com/php/fidelity-financials-all.php?sym=OPMR&per=q&wb=y

http://ogres-crypt.com/php/advfn-financials-all.php?per=a&wb=y&sym=OPMR
http://ogres-crypt.com/php/advfn-financials-all.php?per=q&wb=y&sym=OPMR

Ok, time to watch my Mavericks!

Thursday, April 26, 2007

More Formula Testing

I created a worksheet to automatically pull in the IS and BS from Fidelity Compustat for a given stock symbol. Worked great. I came very close on 43 of the 46 stocks to matching the MFI calculations. The next step will be to work with a Perl programmer to automate it. Then we'll see how many stocks in the top 100 between the lists match. Even if it isn't one for one (which I don't expect) I do think this will be a feasible alternative. Below is the list comparing the 46 or 47 stocks (three stocks: FDG, TGB and TCK... all Canadian errored out).

Stock Market Cap MFI EY MFI ROIC Date My EY My ROIC
AEO 6,713.96 10% > 100% 24-Apr 10% 122%
ASPV 801.30 24% > 100% 24-Apr 24% 388%
AVCI 115.15 41% > 100% 24-Apr 45% 460%
AXCA 784.59 10% > 100% 24-Apr 10% 155%
BBSI 285.51 10% > 100% 24-Apr 9% 142%
CVCO 232.78 11% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 11% 132%
CLST.PK 54.30 16% 50 - 75% 24-Apr 38% 108%
EPIQ 429.32 12% > 100% 24-Apr 18% 329%
ENDP 3,985.32 9% > 100% 24-Apr 9% 583%
FTAR.OB 186.21 51% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 52% 95%
FCX 13,661.49 19% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 13% 14%
FTO 3,714.18 16% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 15% 87%
GVHR 476.50 10% > 100% 24-Apr 12% 208%
JH 1,355.86 9% > 100% 24-Apr 9% 163%
HOC 3,445.14 11% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 11% 89%
IVAC 512.33 12% > 100% 24-Apr 11% 156%
JAKK 686.09 15% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 15% 98%
KSWS 1,018.83 13% > 100% 24-Apr 12% 149%
KSW 39.73 18% > 100% 24-Apr 19% 1885%
KG 5,081.86 14% > 100% 24-Apr 14% 199%
KFY 1,017.81 10% > 100% 24-Apr 11% 361%
MTEX 384.00 12% > 100% 24-Apr 13% 107%
NATH 87.26 10% > 100% 24-Apr 11% 148%
NOOF 208.03 11% > 100% 24-Apr 12% 185%
NXG 918.39 20% 50 - 75% 24-Apr 19% 72%
OPTI.OB 64.57 14% > 100% 24-Apr 14% 42867%
OVTI 744.50 13% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 14% 54%
OPMR 215.58 22% > 100% 24-Apr 143% 1376%
PDII 132.48 42% 50 - 75% 24-Apr 54% 66%
PWEI 389.34 27% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 28% 92%
PACR 1,002.54 11% > 100% 24-Apr 11% 140%
PNCL 375.82 20% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 20% 92%
PBH 656.07 9% > 100% 24-Apr 9% 308%
PCU 24,396.09 12% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 13% 73%
SHOO 654.29 14% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 14% 94%
THO 2,335.28 11% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 12% 76%
USMO 577.97 13% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 14% 78%
UNTD 936.41 10% > 100% 24-Apr 11% 256%
EGY 333.34 25% > 100% 24-Apr 28% 105%
VCI 911.24 12% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 12% 105%
VALU 490.12 9% > 100% 24-Apr 9% 741%
VGR 1,052.22 10% > 100% 24-Apr 10% 138%
VRGY 1,441.11 10% > 100% 24-Apr 10% 266%
VPHM 1,093.99 12% > 100% 24-Apr 12% 3494%
WNR 2,497.26 14% > 100% 24-Apr 12% 118%
WMCO 125.92 12% 75 - 100% 24-Apr 13% 96%

Note also there is a 2 day timing difference as my calcs were done today and MFI calcs were at close of 4/24.

Not exactly an uplifting day for me. I have now fallen about $4k behind the benchmark. All 3 of my stocks that reported yesterday (TGIS, BBSI and BLDR) were down sharply. GVHR also reported this morning before the bell and was lukewarm as well (Gevity HR Q1 earnings decline).

WSTG (my newest stock) reported their earnings this evening (Wayside Technology Group, Inc. Reports Fifteenth Consecutive Quarter of Double Digit Revenue Growth). They were spectacular! One thing about MFI, one or two stocks can really make a difference (like PNCL). Hopefully this will stem the tide. Their income before tax increased from $991K to $1.65M. That is a huge jump. They were up 3.5% in after dark trading.