Regression to the Mean

ORCT and TBL have been out-performing of late for me. Today it was regression to the mean for these two stocks. ORCT was down 4.7% and TBL was down 3.9%. Toss in ANF which was punished today for last night's earnings (dropped 6%) and you think I'd be in trouble, right? But the portfolio has 29 stocks, and can afford a couple downers.

Overall up 0.38% with BLDR and FDG leading the way. The Fed made some positive comments about housing which spiked BLDR up 4% (Fed minutes show concern on inflation).

Recent data from the housing sector gave comfort to "many" FOMC members. The data "suggested that the correction in the housing market was likely to be no more severe than they had previously expected and that the risk of an even larger contraction in this sector had ebbed."

Here is how my stocks have fared, updated as I am home again. I am now up 7.8%. Still down about $5k to benchmark.

Current Portfolio
Stock	Cost	Current	Gain
PNCL	$6.68	$9.71	45.4%
UST	$39.36	$54.83	43.6%
ASEI	$45.85	$65.30	42.4%
MSTR	$94.36	$127.66	35.3%
TGIS	$10.34	$13.53	32.7%
BBSI	$19.56	$23.75	21.4%
MTEX	$13.11	$15.45	19.1%
CHKE	$37.55	$43.31	18.5%
ANF	$61.13	$72.01	18.4%
MGLN	$38.34	$45.08	17.6%
ELX	$17.85	$20.97	17.5%
VPHM	$11.80	$13.18	11.7%
PGI	$7.71	$8.52	10.5%
BLDR	$15.91	$17.00	6.9%
FTO	$28.76	$30.48	6.2%
ISNS	$13.17	$13.00	-1.3%
DLX	$26.36	$25.00	-2.7%
RAIL	$58.18	$55.92	-3.8%
PTEN	$26.72	$25.52	-4.0%
ORCT	$11.83	$11.05	-6.6%
TBL	$34.50	$32.06	-7.1%
KG	$17.31	$15.99	-7.6%
PACR	$32.53	$29.48	-8.5%
TRLG	$17.02	$15.33	-9.9%
PONR	$30.98	$27.85	-10.1%
HW	$33.04	$23.82	-27.9%
OVTI	$27.79	$18.23	-34.4%
FDG	$34.03	$20.45	-35.2%
EZEN	$2.84	$1.65	-41.8%
Current Gain/Loss ($)			$14,652
Current Gain/Loss (%)			4.5%
Sold Gain/Loss ($)			$10,050
Sold Gain/Loss (%)			25.0%
Total Gain/Loss ($)			$24,702
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($)			$29,800
Annual IRR			14.8%
Total Gain/Loss (%)			7.8%

Timber..... (Land)

One thing about MFI is that it insists that you hold the stocks for a year. I don't know whether that is the "right" amount of time, but it does keep me from panicking. TBL is a great example (as is DLX). TBL got as low as $24.80 back in July. Today they announced that they will explore a sale of the company (Timberland considering plan to sell itself: report). The stock is up 5% early today at $32.72. That is a big recovery from $25.

"There You Go Again!" - Seasoned readers will remember that quote from Ronald Reagan. ORCT is at it again, up another 38 cents this a.m. on stronger than average volume. Not sure what is driving it, either rumors or some accumulation by institutions.

ANF reports their earnings this evening after the market closes. Yes, I am nervous.

It is the end f the day. It was a monster day fo my MFI portfolio, up 1.77% compared to the IWV +0.77%. While traveling, I can't run my normal charts as I don't like to log onto my brokerage account anywhere but home... but I think I am only about 5K behind the benchmark now.

Stock News

OVTI has takeover rumors (OmniVision up on takeover speculation).
ORCT ended up 11.7%. I am now down just 2% on a stock that used to be down over 40%.
ANF had their earnings (Abercrombie & Fitch posts higher quarterly profit, sales). The stock is down about 4.5% after hours. I will dissect the numbers later but on the surface they look good.

• $1.11 eps vs $0.79 last year.
• Same store sales up 5%.
• For the year they forecast $4.59 to $4.65 eps.

If you believe they should trade at 20x trailing earnings (not unreasonable considering that they are still growing earnings and revenue nicely) that would imply a stock price north of $90.

My purchase of CLE last week in my sidecar is looking savvy so far as it is up 6% already. The TRLG sidecar purchase looks less savvy as it has down about 5%.

Watching the Wheels

Im just sitting here watching the wheels go round and round
I really love to watch them roll
No longer riding on the merry-go-round
I just had to let it go

Early Monday a.m. in SF. The market is open at 6:30 here. Must be strange.

ORCT Action - not sure what is going on with ORCT. I went back and looked and it has really been moving.

• Oct 24th closed at $7.39
• Oct 25th, closed up to $8.54 trading 1.7m shares (136k average)
• Nov 9th closed at $8.84
• Nov 10th closed at $9.58 on 266k volume
• Today up to $10.36 on heavy early volume (175K).

That is about a 42% increase in under 3 weeks on strong volume. Hmmm. Didn't I say this stock was going to double at some point?

Copper stocks are dropping, I am losing my seller's remorse for selling PCU. And PTSC has dropped to 66 cents from my sale of 92 cents. Whew!

The day is done... another solid day as my MFI once again trumps the benchmark. Overall up 0.46%. ORCT was the big gainer. FDG was my worst stock, I think it may now be my worst overall. FDG, EZEN & OVTI are all down about 40%. I may sell FDG before year-end for taxe purposes, we'll see.

Here is the most recent lost of 50 stocks over 100m. I like to post them every now and then as I view my blog as a time capsule to some extent. LOL.

Name (in alphabetical order)	Ticker	Market Cap ($ Millions)	Pre Tax Earnings Yield	Pre Tax Return on Capital	Price From	Most Recent Quarter Data
Accenture Ltd	ACN	19,664.08	9%	> 100%	11/12	08/31
Aspreva Pharmaceuticals Corp	ASPV	617.08	32%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Bally Total Fitness Holding Corp.	BFT	108.66	9%	> 100%	11/12	06/30
Barrett Business Services Inc	BBSI	261.11	11%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Bradley Pharmaceuticals Inc.	BDY	302.22	9%	> 100%	11/12	06/30
CGI Group Inc.	GIB	2,282.32	10%	> 100%	11/12	06/30
Career Education Corp	CECO	2,222.54	14%	50 - 75%	11/12	09/30
Cavco Industries Inc	CVCO	214.81	14%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Conn's Inc	CONN	556.17	17%	50 - 75%	11/12	07/31
Cryptologic Inc	CRYP	258.97	18%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Deb Shops Inc	DEBS	389.01	13%	> 100%	11/12	07/31
Deluxe Corp	DLX	1,228.30	10%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Eagle Test Systems Inc	EGLT	309.83	17%	> 100%	11/12	06/30
ExpressJet Holdings Inc.	XJT	397.26	41%	50 - 75%	11/12	06/30
Fording Canadian Coal Trust	FDG	2,910.60	23%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc.	FCX	11,008.75	23%	75 - 100%	11/12	09/30
Frontier Oil Corp.	FTO	3,257.49	19%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Harvest Natural Resources Inc.	HNR	379.01	17%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Intersections Inc	INTX	173.66	12%	75 - 100%	11/12	09/30
King Pharmaceuticals Inc.	KG	3,933.58	18%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Korn/Ferry International	KFY	931.88	10%	> 100%	11/12	07/31
Labor Ready Inc.	LRW	952.62	13%	75 - 100%	11/12	09/30
Lam Research Corp	LRCX	6,455.89	10%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Lamson & Sessions Co	LMS	330.51	23%	50 - 75%	11/12	09/30
Mannatech Inc	MTEX	384.52	14%	> 100%	11/12	06/30
Merge Technologies Inc	MRGE	182.56	14%	> 100%	11/12	06/30
Motorola Inc.	MOT	51,686.15	11%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
New Frontier Media Inc	NOOF	213.34	11%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Nucor Corp	NUE	18,101.41	15%	50 - 75%	11/12	09/30
Odyssey Healthcare Inc	ODSY	425.23	11%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
OmniVision Technologies Inc	OVTI	894.31	20%	> 100%	11/12	07/31
Optimal Group Inc	OPMR	220.99	10%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
PW Eagle Inc	PWEI	442.31	37%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Pacer International Inc	PACR	1,078.01	10%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Palm Inc	PALM	1,513.38	13%	> 100%	11/12	08/31
Pinnacle Airlines Corp	PNCL	213.96	33%	> 100%	11/12	06/30
PortalPlayer Inc	PLAY	337.93	19%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Prestige Brands Holdings Inc	PBH	559.09	10%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Sonic Solutions	SNIC	382.86	9%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Southern Copper Corp	PCU	16,030.40	16%	50 - 75%	11/12	09/30
Teck Cominco Ltd	TCK	16,244.39	19%	50 - 75%	11/12	09/30
Thor Industries Inc.	THO	2,442.40	12%	75 - 100%	11/12	07/31
United Industrial Corp	UIC	472.83	13%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Vaalco Energy Inc	EGY	480.29	18%	> 100%	11/12	06/30
Valassis Communications Inc.	VCI	717.91	16%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Vertrue Inc	VTRU	392.93	10%	> 100%	11/12	09/30
Western Refining Inc	WNR	1,664.13	19%	> 100%	11/12	06/30
Westwood One Inc.	WON	570.43	11%	> 100%	11/12	06/30
Williams Controls Inc	WMCO	100.79	13%	75 - 100%	11/12	06/30
World Air Holdings Inc	WLDA	211.52	16%	75 - 100%	11/12	06/30

I Can See "Clairely" Now

I can see clearly now, the rain is gone,
I can see all obstacles in my way
Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind
It’s gonna be a bright (bright), bright (bright) Sun-Shiny day.
I think I can make it now, the pain is gone
All of the bad feelings have disappeared
Here is the rainbow I’ve been prayin?for
It’s gonna be a bright (bright), bright (bright) Sun-Shiny day.
Look all around, there’s nothin?but blue skies
Look straight ahead, nothin?but blue skies
I can see clearly now, the rain is gone,
I can see all obstacles in my way
Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind
It’s gonna be a bright (bright), bright (bright) Sun-Shiny day.

Been a while since I quoted some lyrics in my blog. But why not? I'm in a great mood. My MFI portfolio shot up 1.6% today... don't ask me why as the market wasn't up like that. Then I am off to San Francisco tomorrow. Always great to see the city by the bay ("Sitting on the dock of the Bay...").

Saw a very interesting note from Mr Greenblatt today (Greenblatt eyes Claire's, Autozone, Aeropostale). Readers may recall that I uncovered a recording from last December where JG recommended Autozone, Lexmark & The Gap from his MFI list. If you had bought those three back then you'd be up 28%. Like the old EF Hutton commercials, when Joel Greenblatt talks... we should listen. And so I did, I bought CLE at $27.50 today. It will not be part of my MFI portfolio as (1) I don't want to add more stocks and (2) I wanted to buy more than "normal". It is in my "Sidecar" portfolio. I sold my ASEI in the sidecar today after a 20% gain in the past week.

A bunch of my laggards were great today:

• ORCT + 8.4%
• EZEN +5.4%
• TBL +6.2%
• HW +3.1%

Again, it was a strange day. Here are my stocks in performance order. PNCL is now numero uno. A position which frankly has been like the SI cover jinx (ask TGIS & MTEX). Remember that I include all dividends in my figures.

Current Portfolio
Stock	Cost	Current	Gain
PNCL	$6.68	$9.69	45.1%
UST	$39.36	$54.51	42.8%
ASEI	$45.85	$63.31	38.1%
TGIS	$10.34	$13.64	33.8%
MSTR	$94.36	$125.02	32.5%
ANF	$61.13	$74.38	22.2%
BBSI	$19.56	$23.22	18.7%
CHKE	$37.55	$43.00	17.7%
ELX	$17.85	$19.99	12.0%
MGLN	$38.34	$42.86	11.8%
MTEX	$13.11	$14.46	11.5%
PGI	$7.71	$8.28	7.4%
VPHM	$11.80	$12.30	4.2%
FTO	$28.76	$29.43	2.5%
BLDR	$15.91	$16.26	2.2%
ISNS	$13.17	$13.11	-0.5%
RAIL	$58.18	$55.16	-5.1%
PTEN	$26.72	$25.22	-5.2%
KG	$17.31	$16.18	-6.5%
DLX	$26.36	$23.89	-6.9%
TBL	$34.50	$31.74	-8.0%
TRLG	$17.02	$15.47	-9.1%
PACR	$32.53	$29.25	-9.2%
PONR	$30.98	$26.91	-13.1%
ORCT	$11.83	$9.58	-19.0%
HW	$33.04	$22.66	-31.4%
FDG	$34.03	$19.80	-37.1%
EZEN	$2.84	$1.74	-38.6%
OVTI	$27.79	$16.41	-40.9%
Current Gain/Loss ($)			$5,897
Current Gain/Loss (%)			1.8%
Sold Gain/Loss ($)			$10,050
Sold Gain/Loss (%)			25.0%
Total Gain/Loss ($)			$15,947
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($)			$24,764
Annual IRR			10.1%
Total Gain/Loss (%)			5.0%

A recap for newer readers. I have sold 5 MFI stocks: IVII, NCOG, NSS, PTSC & PCU. The 1st three were bought by other companies. I decided PTSC really wasn't an MFI stock (and frankly I could not stand the volaility). Then PCU had been called an MFI stock by me at the start but was in my normal portfolio already. I only counted the gains from when I started MFI. Here is my weekly graph. Remember for new readers that the blue line represents the change in the benchmark investment since Feb 24th. The Magenta line is my MFI portfolio of 29 stocks. The green line represents breakeven. I think you'll agree that the trend is my friend:

Taking Off

PNCL has "gained altitude" and become my 2nd best performing MFI stock (UST is my best). I mentioned that it finished strong yesterday... funny but it did the same thing today. Flat most the day, then up 5% at the end of the day on 4x the normal volme. It is doubly odd as oil prices have been ticking up and airlines often move opposite oil. I remember people on the MFI board bashing PNCL saying they would never buy an airline stock. I think that is foolish. All stocks and sectors have good times to buy them. If MFI sends a signal that it is a good time to buy, it should be considered.

MTEX announced their earnings midday (Mannatech, Inc. Reports Third Quarter Earnings). Unimpressive is the word that comes to mind. The stock dropped about 5% on the news. I expect further drop as people read a little more. To be honest, I'd have been a seller today if MTEX wasn't in my MFI portfolio.

KG also announced earnings (King Pharmaceuticals Reports Third-Quarter 2006 Financial Results). I guess they were pretty good, though I wasn't blown away. KG has pretty much been dead money since I bought them in May. The stock did jump 3% on the news.

Lot of news today. PTEN settled litigation and also went up (Patterson-UTI Settlement ).

At the end of the day, I was down slightly, which was pretty good on a pretty bad day. Later!

Current Portfolio
Stock	Cost	Current	Gain
UST	$39.36	$54.60	43.0%
PNCL	$6.68	$9.50	42.2%
TGIS	$10.34	$13.83	35.6%
ASEI	$45.85	$60.88	32.8%
MSTR	$94.36	$118.70	25.8%
ANF	$61.13	$72.48	19.1%
CHKE	$37.55	$41.23	13.0%
BBSI	$19.56	$22.03	12.6%
MTEX	$13.11	$14.39	11.0%
ELX	$17.85	$19.76	10.7%
MGLN	$38.34	$42.29	10.3%
PGI	$7.71	$8.20	6.3%
VPHM	$11.80	$12.46	5.6%
FTO	$28.76	$30.07	4.8%
BLDR	$15.91	$16.19	1.8%
ISNS	$13.17	$13.01	-1.2%
PTEN	$26.72	$25.69	-3.4%
RAIL	$58.18	$54.84	-5.7%
KG	$17.31	$16.20	-6.4%
DLX	$26.36	$23.44	-8.6%
TRLG	$17.02	$15.48	-9.0%
PACR	$32.53	$28.85	-10.4%
TBL	$34.50	$29.91	-13.3%
PONR	$30.98	$26.32	-15.0%
ORCT	$11.83	$8.84	-25.3%
HW	$33.04	$21.98	-33.5%
FDG	$34.03	$20.31	-35.6%
OVTI	$27.79	$16.34	-41.2%
EZEN	$2.84	$1.65	-41.8%
Current Gain/Loss ($)			$425
Current Gain/Loss (%)			0.1%
Sold Gain/Loss ($)			$10,050
Sold Gain/Loss (%)			25.0%
Total Gain/Loss ($)			$10,475
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($)			$24,039
Annual IRR			6.6%
Total Gain/Loss (%)			3.3%

3 Interesting Charts

My MFI portfolio actually went up today despite TRLG being the absolute worse stock in the Nasdaq. Down 25. That is outrageous. But I will not rant. Rather I bought some in my sidecar mfi holdings (which have made about $10k for me). Here is the 5 day TRLG chart:


ASEI was my big winner today, Cramer suggested it was because the Dems won (360 Degrees of the Elections). I suppose that is possible but I suspect it is more because people are recogonizing that the recent quarter report was pretty darned good.

Hmmm I have had technical difficulties uploading the next two graphs. I'll try again tomorrow. ne chart was PNCL which stayed flat for the entire day and then shot up about 5% on heavy volume in final 5-10 minutes.


The final chart was PONR which inexplainably released a 10Q in the absolute middle of the day. I think it was a clerical error. The stock immediately spiked about 8%. I sold my sidecar PONR at this time. The stock then dropped 20 minutes later as the press release (Pioneer Announces 2006 Third Quarter Results) came out about their earnings. It was a solid quarter, but they talked about weakening pricing... not a good sign.

Frustration & Politics

Yes, I do get frustrated from time to time. I had 4 companies announce earnings yesterday (PNCL, FTO, HW & TRLG). I felt the 1st three had decent numbers.

• PNCL squeaked out a one cent gain.
• FTO was down.
• HW got hammered 14%!
• TRLG dropped about 20% in AH.

I should not let it bother me, but it does. So I was basically flat on Tuesday with the HW drag in a positive market day. Today will likely be severe with TRLG looking bad. I would be a buyer of either stock. ASEI did shake off its initial 10% drop from Monday and is now higher... so these things can be ST.

On the political side, looks like the Dems won in a rout. The markets seem none too pleased, though I suspect nothing will change while Bush is in office. I do believe the markets have gotten ahead of themselves, we are not past the spectre of slow growth + inflation.

Play(ing) Fair?

I have owned PLAY for a month in my sidecar MFI holdings. I didn't feel it was a true MFI stock, but I did feel it had upside potential. So I was excited this morning when I read the following headline (NVIDIA to Acquire PortalPlayer).

I was substantially less excited when I saw the purchase price of $13.50 a share given that PLAY had closed Friday at $13.36. The stock had essentially moved up last week to the purchase price. Hmmmm. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to guess that it wasn't the best kept secret on the Street. Sure enough, check out this headline later in the day (). Wow, that is really weird. I would swear I saw a headline by Seeking Alpha questioning "Who Knew Last Week"? Maybe they pulled it under duress. Wait I found it (Nvidia Buying Portalplayer; Who Knew Last Week?). I can't complain as I made a 22% gain in a month. The possible leaking of the deal didn't hurt me, stock just went up a week early.

ASEI announced their earnings this morning(American Science and Engineering, Inc. Reports Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2007 Results). I always have trouble knowing what numbers to look at. EPS was 20 cents below analyst estimates, but there were 22 cents of Fas103 charges. Revenues were light, but backlog was all time high. Here is what the CEO said:

"AS&E ended the second quarter with strong bookings and the highest order backlog in the Company's history," commented Anthony Fabiano, AS&E's President and CEO. "We recorded backlog of $117 million -- up $54 million from the previous quarter and a 54% increase for the same period last year. Significant trends for the quarter included diversifying our customer base, expanding product markets, as well as closing significant service renewal contracts."

The stock dropped 10% at the start of the day. It slowly rose over the day and ended up down 3% at $54.18. I actually used my proceeds from my sale of PLAY to buy some ASEI (at $52.12) in my sidecar.

Don't Look Back! Man I am having seller's regret over selling PCU from my portfolio a few weeks ago. I had held it for a year in my portfolio so I sold it at what was a 3 month high of $49.86. It closed today at $55.78. That is about $6 per share, which would have really helped.

Wrong Pharma! I bought KG back in May stating that I wanted a pharma in my MFI portfolio. Well another alternative (alphabetically close) KOSP would have been the better choice (Abbott to buy Kos, become HDL-cholesterol leader). A mere 54% premium. That deal doesn't seem to have been linked.

The spike by KOSP (and PLAY last week) has really helped my hypothetical monthly portfolios. They are now regularly beating the benchmarks:

	MFI	Russell 3000	Russ 2000 V
February	10.38%	7.31%	8.76%
April	4.98%	5.98%	5.16%
May	5.85%	6.54%	6.07%
June	6.55%	8.15%	7.67%
July	10.51%	8.18%	6.78%
August	8.82%	8.13%	8.07%
September	6.67%	5.59%	5.01%
October	6.91%	3.04%	3.13%
Average	7.58%	6.61%	6.33%

Up Day Down Market

Another week in the bank... well, not really "in the bank" as I lost money, but you know what I mean. It was a good last day though as my portfolio was up 0.5% despite the DJ down 30+ (and EZEN dropping 10%).

ASEI was up 5% and is now up a snappy 22%.
FDG was up 6% as it made a mini comeback from the Canadian bloodbath.
PTEN and FTO reflected the bullish Energy mood going up 4% each.

I think I finally understand why UST dropped $3 on the 26th after very good earnings. Read this report:

"While cigarettes have long been this blue chip's cash crop, the company announced during the third quarter that it's test-marketing a smoke-free and spit-free tobacco product called Taboka. Taboka, which Altria developed on its own,is being test-marketed in the Indianapolis area. While cigarette sales have been declining nationally at a rate of 2% to 3% annually, the sales of smokeless tobacco products have been growing 4% to 5% per year.

I think the foray into the smokeless tobacco market indicates that Altria is in touch with national trends and hasn't grown complacent. The move should also bring added heat to competitors Reynolds American and UST (NYSE: UST - News), which control the lion's share of the market."

Here are my most recent charts and stats. I did finally figure out why my graph and table were out of sync. I was double counting dividends in the table for IWV.

Current Portfolio
Stock	Cost	Current	Gain
UST	$39.36	$53.12	39.3%
TGIS	$10.34	$12.90	26.6%
MSTR	$94.36	$118.91	26.0%
PNCL	$6.68	$8.29	24.1%
ASEI	$45.85	$56.01	22.2%
TRLG	$17.02	$20.69	21.6%
ANF	$61.13	$72.57	19.3%
MGLN	$38.34	$43.24	12.8%
MTEX	$13.11	$14.61	12.7%
VPHM	$11.80	$12.94	9.7%
BBSI	$19.56	$21.30	8.9%
CHKE	$37.55	$39.64	8.8%
FTO	$28.76	$31.11	8.4%
ELX	$17.85	$19.26	7.9%
PGI	$7.71	$8.24	6.9%
ISNS	$13.17	$12.98	-1.4%
BLDR	$15.91	$15.47	-2.7%
KG	$17.31	$16.20	-6.4%
RAIL	$58.18	$53.34	-8.3%
PACR	$32.53	$28.95	-10.1%
PTEN	$26.72	$23.83	-10.4%
DLX	$26.36	$22.44	-12.4%
PONR	$30.98	$26.46	-14.6%
TBL	$34.50	$28.43	-17.6%
HW	$33.04	$24.54	-25.7%
ORCT	$11.83	$8.57	-27.6%
FDG	$34.03	$22.42	-29.4%
EZEN	$2.84	$1.70	-40.0%
OVTI	$27.79	$15.98	-42.5%
Current Gain/Loss ($)			-$2,369
Current Gain/Loss (%)			-0.7%
Sold Gain/Loss ($)			$10,050
Sold Gain/Loss (%)			25.0%
Total Gain/Loss ($)			$7,681
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($)			$19,729
Annual IRR			4.8%
Total Gain/Loss (%)			2.4%

Earnings, Earnings, Earnings

No shortage of headlines for my stocks of late. All-in-all though another flat day.

MSTR was my first headline of the morning. I didn't like the headline (MicroStrategy Announces Updated Third Quarter 2006 Financial Results). "Updated"... hmmm. I read the article and they made a small clerical error on number of diluted shares. Then they also had a $1m event that had just occurred that they decided to disclose. I wasn't sure how the market would react, but MSTR was up $1.91. This has been a gold star stock for me, up over 26%.

ANF reported cruddy SSS, down 3% for October (Abercrombie & Fitch Oct same-store sales fell 3%). Didn't sound good to me. Stock got as low as $70.82 but rebounded to $73,41. I would not be surprised to see it drop back tomorrow.

VPHM reported earnings this morning. I thought they were pretty darned good. Made 33 cents... beating by 8 cents and strong revenues (ViroPharma Incorporated Reports Third Quarter and Nine Months 2006 Financial Results). Inexplicably, the stock opened lower, but then ended higher.


EZEN tried to provide some afternoon delight, releasing their earnings at 2:13 (Ezenia! Inc. Announces 2006 Third Quarter Financial Results). I thought they were promising. They commented about a $1m contract (a lot of money for Ezenia!) at the end of the quarter. Stock went up only a penny.

Finally FDG continued to bleed Canadian Red. Down another 5.7%. That is 18 or 19% drop the past two days from this law change. I admittedly do not understand the ramifications of the law, but it smells of a panic and over-reaction for something I understand will not take place for 5 years.

Happy Investing!

O(uc)h Canada!

Apologies to the Street.Com for borrowing their headline today. Canada changed their law on how Trusts are taxed. And FDG is a trust. The change caused the stock to drop a whopping 12%! I did a little research and found this article about the change (CANADIAN MARKETS Canadian stocks tumble on tax change). The interesting thing is that the change will not be implemented (at least that is my understanding) until 2011. A lot can change in 5 years.

PTEN announced their earnings this morning. I thought they were terrific! And so did early traders, the stock was bid up about 5% when they were released, but ended up down a nickel. They made $1.12 per share! This is a $23 stock. I do feel they have kind of peaked, but They should be minting money for the next 12 months at least. The stock will move back north of $25 before year-end.

CHKE got the $34m I mentioned a month or two ago. Remember, that is a lot of cash for a company the size of CHKE. As astute readers may recall, I wondered what they'd do with the extra $ as they run pretty lean (not a capital intensive business). They answered the question this morning, they are raising their dividend to a nifty 75 cents(Cherokee Announces December Quarterly Dividend Increased to $0.75 Per Share).

All-in-all a crummy day for my portfolio, down 1.6%. Hopefully better news tomorrow.