Rally Since End of October

Trump Rally - Is Small = Great?

The acceleration of MFI results since Trump became PEOTUS has been staggering.  I believe it (to steal from Alexander Hamilton) caused "the world to turn upside down". Stocks that were out-of-favor, suddenly became in favor. And frankly, that usually defines at least 50% of MFI universe.

So I thought readers might be interested in a few stats since end of October.  It was not too much effort.  So first here is a listing of tranches (just for those with 2.6% dividend or greater), showing how they were valued at 10/28/16 and where they are today:

Tranche Date	28-Oct	4-Jan	Change
11/27/2015	5.4%	12.5%	7.1%
12/31/2015	11.3%	17.3%	6.0%
1/29/2016	16.6%	23.0%	6.4%
2/26/2016	11.9%	26.8%	15.0%
3/24/2016	13.9%	30.7%	16.7%
4/22/2016	4.8%	17.5%	12.7%
5/27/2016	8.9%	18.0%	9.1%
6/30/2016	5.4%	13.2%	7.8%
7/29/2016	-1.9%	6.8%	8.8%
8/26/2016	-1.5%	10.3%	11.8%
9/30/2016	-0.5%	16.6%	17.1%
10/28/2016	0.0%	12.2%	12.3%
11/27/2016		3.4%
12/30/2016		1.6%

Obviously tranches started after 10/28 are up what they are up.  But the 10 previous tranches are up an average of 11.1% since 10/28.  

Now let us get more specific (I think I can do this).  Let us look at the 10/28 tranche by stock and starting 11/7 (note this is now all 50 stocks).

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change	Mkt Cap
MDCA	3.15	6.70	112.7%	316
NSR	22.10	33.25	50.5%	1,364
UIS	10.40	15.00	44.2%	751
BBSI	45.24	64.38	42.3%	426
VEC	17.07	24.00	40.6%	248
TRNC	10.23	13.68	33.7%	469
HSII	18.10	24.20	33.7%	395
AGTC	7.20	9.55	32.6%	179
SPOK	16.39	21.60	31.8%	375
AGX	55.35	70.25	26.9%	997
IDCC	71.80	90.65	26.3%	2,773
BPT	19.95	24.90	24.8%	457
ICON	8.00	9.92	24.0%	545
MCFT	11.91	14.64	22.9%	252
GME	20.93	25.37	21.2%	2,680
UTHR	119.55	143.99	20.4%	6,117
DLX	60.01	71.90	19.8%	3,394
AWRE	5.15	6.15	19.4%	132
MPAA	23.47	27.91	18.9%	492
MBUU	16.04	19.07	18.9%	322
GHC	445.85	523.60	17.4%	2,727
TGNA	18.46	21.54	16.7%	4,792
RPXC	9.58	11.03	15.1%	531
IRMD	9.75	11.20	14.9%	115
NHTC	21.38	24.45	14.4%	298
MSGN	19.15	21.85	14.1%	1,494
DHX	5.50	6.25	13.6%	331
BKE	20.65	23.40	13.3%	1,247
MCK	134.51	147.43	9.6%	32,334
PBI	14.51	15.86	9.3%	2,759
AAPL	110.41	116.15	5.2%	596,530
HRB	21.81	22.91	5.0%	5,254
CA	31.25	32.29	3.3%	13,130
SYNT	19.40	19.92	2.7%	1,696
TDC	27.11	27.58	1.7%	3,547
USNA	61.20	62.20	1.6%	1,539
SSNI	12.90	13.05	1.2%	761
GILD	73.53	74.16	0.9%	99,732
AMCX	53.32	53.55	0.4%	3,845
MYGN	16.92	16.93	0.1%	1,194
HPQ	14.92	14.85	-0.5%	25,882
CSCO	30.94	30.54	-1.3%	150,330
ESRX	70.38	69.40	-1.4%	48,407
FPRX	50.00	48.60	-2.8%	1,732
VIAB	37.35	35.90	-3.9%	14,936
ACHI	2.40	2.29	-4.6%	240
RGR	63.35	53.45	-15.6%	996
SWHC	27.85	21.08	-24.3%	1,338
AVID	6.20	4.63	-25.3%	176
PDLI	3.20	2.23	-30.3%	420

You know, that is a very interesting list. The top 10 names are amongst the smallest market caps. Only AGX and NSR were in the largest 1/2 of stocks, and both of those just barely.  Let me try this for another group of stocks, say end of June. Note that "Rank" is simply a stat showing where the market cap ranks. So 1 is APPL as they are largest market cap and 50 is CHKE as the smallest. Anything over 25 is in the smallest 1/2.

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change	Mkt Cap	Rank
NSR	22.10	33.25	50.5%	1,307	19
WNC	10.93	16.21	48.3%	824	27
ENTA	23.34	34.35	47.2%	429	34
KFY	20.66	29.54	43.0%	1,200	21
BBSI	45.24	64.38	42.3%	287	42
VEC	17.07	24.00	40.6%	312	40
STRA	58.60	81.91	39.8%	557	31
HSII	18.10	24.20	33.7%	316	38
NATH	49.45	63.60	28.6%	187	48
AGX	55.35	70.25	26.9%	616	30
IDCC	71.80	90.65	26.3%	1,910	17
AMAG	27.00	33.95	25.7%	850	26
OUTR	41.52	52.00	25.2%	737	28
BPT	19.95	24.90	24.8%	389	35
ICON	8.00	9.92	24.0%	334	36
MCFT	11.91	14.64	22.9%	207	47
WILN	1.40	1.72	22.8%	306	41
GME	20.93	25.37	21.2%	2,814	15
UTHR	119.55	143.99	20.4%	5,236	7
DLX	60.01	71.90	19.8%	3,250	13
MBUU	16.04	19.07	18.9%	222	45
CALM	37.30	43.75	17.3%	2,164	16
RPXC	9.58	11.03	15.1%	475	33
CPLA	75.45	86.80	15.0%	623	29
IILG	15.79	18.10	14.6%	945	25
CHKE	9.40	10.75	14.4%	101	50
NHTC	21.38	24.45	14.4%	314	39
MSGN	19.15	21.85	14.1%	1,137	23
DHX	5.50	6.25	13.6%	326	37
BKE	20.65	23.40	13.3%	1,262	20
PBI	14.51	15.86	9.3%	3,398	11
AAPL	110.41	116.15	5.2%	525,328	1
HRB	21.81	22.91	5.0%	5,156	8
BLBD	14.90	15.50	4.0%	250	43
SYNT	19.40	19.92	2.7%	3,777	9
TDC	27.11	27.58	1.7%	3,267	12
USNA	61.20	62.20	1.6%	1,339	18
BRCD	12.29	12.47	1.5%	3,694	10
GILD	73.53	74.16	0.9%	114,391	3
UNTD	11.00	11.00	0.0%	164	49
HPQ	14.92	14.85	-0.5%	21,756	4
CSCO	30.94	30.54	-1.3%	144,979	2
FPRX	50.00	48.60	-2.8%	1,186	22
VIAB	37.35	35.90	-3.9%	16,454	5
ACHI	2.40	2.29	-4.6%	221	46
FIT	8.69	7.94	-8.6%	2,983	14
KORS	50.30	43.08	-14.4%	9,041	6
INSY	11.99	9.86	-17.8%	1,015	24
AVID	6.20	4.63	-25.3%	230	44
PDLI	3.20	2.23	-30.3%	529	32

We seem to have same thing going on. Smaller is better. Again,only 2 of top 10 are in largest 1/2. If we sort by market cap, we seethe 25 largest are up 8.8% on average whilst 25 smallest are up 19.5%.  That includes UNTD which was already bought.