Sunday, August 30, 2015

Weekend Update - End of August, 2015

Weekend Update

Happy Sunday evening.  It has been a busy weekend pour moi.  But winding down now.  Got the headphones on (it is on shuffle, but Donna Summer is on - The Disco Queen) - yes, a guilty pleasure.  I am using my new Dell.  I have to say, while people think of Microsoft as slow and not innovative - people forget Microsoft's greatest strength.  They are very good at taking other people's ideas and improving them.

I am using the X-Box player with this new computer and am very very pleased with it's look, feel and sound.  I have decided not to even download I-tunes on this machine.  It just doesn't play well with Windows.  I think this bodes poorly for Apple. I have been reading a lot of blogs about the new Apple Music - people are complaining they're losing songs.  I was annoyed, not sure I lost songs but it made duplicate copies for some reason of all my playlists.  I am worried about losing songs.  So I have backed up everything.  And remember, I Tunes was really the engine that got people into the Apple eco-system.  If they mess that up and people start finding out that other systems (like what Microsoft has been rolling out) are solid... I think this bodes poorly for Apple. I am also pleased with the Microsoft One Drive.  I have never understood how the iCloud worked.  But I am using and working with One Drive.  Enough of my computer thoughts, though it makes me want to reconsider MSFT as an investment.

MFI Select

Well, after a couple absolutely dreadful weeks, I did bounce back a bit this past week; although at the end of Tuesday it was looking bleak. But Wednesday and Thursday were the best back to back days in the markets since December 2008 (not sure if that meant point wise or percentage wise, I heard it on CNBC).

11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $45.65 $0.63 -28.6% -0.5%
IPCM $38.45 $79.44 $0.00 106.6% -0.5%
VIAB $72.29 $40.91 $1.06 -41.9% -0.5%
NHTC $12.19 $26.69 $0.06 119.4% -0.5%
AWRE $4.40 $3.18 $0.00 -27.7% -0.5%
Totals 25.6% -0.5%
2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $24.05 $0.00 -14.1% 0.9%
QCOM $62.73 $57.45 $0.90 -7.0% 0.9%
VIAB $63.91 $40.91 $0.73 -34.8% 0.9%
UIS $22.03 $13.95 $0.00 -36.7% 0.9%
NHTC $12.44 $26.69 $0.05 115.0% 0.9%
Totals 4.5% 0.9%
5/6/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CBI $50.38 $43.75 $0.07 -13.0% -4.1%
PSDV $4.12 $3.94 $0.00 -4.5% -4.1%
TSRA $38.94 $32.97 $0.40 -14.3% -4.1%
KORS $62.24 $43.17 $0.00 -30.6% -4.1%
DEPO $23.50 $28.38 $0.00 20.8% -4.1%
Totals -8.3% -4.1%
8/17/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VDSI $18.66 $17.59 $0.00 -5.8% -4.7%
SALE $9.34 $9.14 $0.00 -2.1% -4.7%
CSCO $28.95 $26.00 $0.00 -10.2% -4.7%
TGNA $25.30 $24.16 $0.00 -4.5% -4.7%
HSII $20.14 $19.62 $0.00 -2.6% -4.7%
Totals -5.0% -4.7%


Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment        25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
Current Tranche -5.0% 25.6% 4.5% -8.3% 4.2%
Previous Tranche 11.2% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 16.3%
Tranche -2 41.4% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 49.1%
Tranche -3 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MFI Overall Gain 70.3% 106.1% 102.0% 44.2% 80.6%
Current Balance        42,580          51,526       50,489        36,051      180,645
R3K Current Tranche -4.7% -0.5% 0.9% -4.1% -2.1%
R3K Overall Gain 51.2% 55.6% 37.9% 28.6% 43.3%
R3K Balance        37,793          38,907       34,480        32,153      143,333
Annualized IRR 19.2% 29.6% 31.4% 17.1% 24.6%

Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
Current 37.31%        180,645            143,333

If we look back a week, I was at $177k - now at 180K. At least the bleeding stopped.

MFI Formula

10/1/2014 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BAH $23.52 $26.63 $0.37 14.8% 3.2%
BKE $45.55 $42.59 $3.68 1.6% 3.2%
CA $27.87 $27.26 $1.00 1.4% 3.2%
GME $41.70 $42.49 $1.05 4.4% 3.2%
NUS $44.56 $45.75 $1.40 5.8% 3.2%
Totals 5.6% 3.2%
12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $27.26 $0.75 -9.1% -3.0%
CSCO $28.36 $26.00 $0.61 -6.2% -3.0%
RGR $34.81 $61.69 $0.85 79.6% -3.0%
GME $34.21 $42.49 $0.72 26.3% -3.0%
IQNT $19.87 $18.59 $0.45 -4.2% -3.0%
Totals 17.3% -3.0%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $34.47 $0.20 8.4% -4.2%
GME $37.69 $42.49 $0.36 13.7% -4.2%
KING $15.85 $13.50 $0.00 -14.8% -4.2%
NSU $3.43 $2.92 $0.04 -13.7% -4.2%
PPC $22.65 $20.81 $0.00 -8.1% -4.2%
Totals -2.9% -4.2%
7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45 $42.59 $0.23 -7.8% -4.2%
CA $29.34 $27.26 $0.25 -6.2% -4.2%
MSFT $44.42 $43.93 $0.31 -0.4% -4.2%
QCOM $62.95 $57.45 $0.00 -8.7% -4.2%
VIAB $64.75 $40.91 $0.00 -36.8% -4.2%
Totals -12.0% -4.2%

Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
Current 4.04%        101,958              97,915

Interestingly, this portfolio actually lost ground during the week.  The GME drop post earnings (which I did not understand) really hurt.


MFI Micro

As a reminder,  I did start a micro cap portfolio last week, to move money away from my losing discretionary picks.

8/28/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VNCE $8.50 $9.06 $0.00 6.6% 0.2%
ONE $1.99 $1.97 $0.00 -1.0% 0.2%
TPUB $11.60 $11.80 $0.00 1.7% 0.2%
LQDT $7.26 $7.36 $0.00 1.4% 0.2%
PERI $2.45 $2.40 $0.00 -2.0% 0.2%
Totals 1.3% 0.2%

Coincidentally, I took my daughter shopping in Westport Ct this weekend (she loves Vineyard Vines) and I saw a Vince store for the first time in my life. i was dismayed to see that it wasn't exactly hopping, even though the main town square seemed pretty busy. A bad sign?  Just a single data point.

Dividend Stocks

Then here are my dividend stocks (and my Warrants).  I will pare down the rest of my holdings to juts MFI and dividend - both types being long term holdings. I note O and OBIAX are not here. Too lazy to add, but they should be


Stock Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Gain per Share Pct Gain
BAC-WTA          6.09              6.38                  -                 0.29 4.7%
AOD          8.09              8.02             1.47               1.40 17.3%
CSQ          9.30              9.97             2.01               2.67 28.8%
FSC          7.06              6.37             0.35             (0.35) -4.9%
SJT        11.07            10.76             0.08             (0.23) -2.1%
NTC        12.05            12.39             1.04               1.38 11.5%
TGONF        10.24              9.96             1.03               0.75 7.3%
HIG-WT        21.24            38.81                  -               17.57 82.7%
REXI          8.30              7.22             0.06             (1.02) -12.3%

O        22.32            45.82           17.15             40.65 182.1%
OIBAX          5.04              5.70             2.10               2.76 54.9%