Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Two Weeks Until Next Tranche

May 6th 2015 Thoughts

I start a new tranche on May 6th.  It is a slow day here, I have about 40 minutes to kill. So I thought I'd write down a few of my thoughts.

First, here is the expiring tranche:

5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $21.60 $0.00 10.4% 13.6%
CA $29.54 $31.86 $1.00 11.2% 13.6%
CSCO $22.79 $28.94 $0.57 29.5% 13.6%
NSR $25.82 $27.99 $0.00 8.4% 13.6%
RCII $28.78 $30.06 $0.94 7.7% 13.6%
Totals 13.4% 13.6%

It has really gained some serious ground these last few days.

Here is the current top fifty over 100 million list:

Ticker Mkt Cap Date
ACHI 543.42 24-Apr
ADMS 310.65 24-Apr
APEI 524.51 24-Apr
ANIK 569.57 24-Apr
APOL 1,884.99 24-Apr
AGX 476.53 24-Apr
HRB 8,879.50 24-Apr
BCOR 569.90 24-Apr
BRCD 5,123.71 24-Apr
BKE 2,307.73 24-Apr
CPLA 816.00 24-Apr
CSCO 147,183.70 24-Apr
CLCT 203.98 24-Apr
DEPO 1,639.16 24-Apr
ENTA 690.80 24-Apr
EGL 531.98 24-Apr
FLR 8,934.39 24-Apr
GME 4,384.47 24-Apr
GILD 155,438.80 24-Apr
GORO 183.13 24-Apr
HPQ 60,599.72 24-Apr
ONE 131.53 24-Apr
IQNT 647.70 24-Apr
IDCC 1,987.77 24-Apr
KING 5,396.03 24-Apr
KFY 1,635.69 24-Apr
LQDT 282.48 24-Apr
MSB 200.47 24-Apr
KORS 12,761.32 24-Apr
NATH 209.07 24-Apr
NHTC 280.66 24-Apr
NSR 1,537.92 24-Apr
NSU 762.67 24-Apr
NLNK 1,457.81 24-Apr
PDLI 1,131.44 24-Apr
PFMT 158.91 24-Apr
PETS 351.56 24-Apr
PPC 6,117.56 24-Apr
PBI 4,604.91 24-Apr
PSDV 122.35 24-Apr
QCOM 111,435.90 24-Apr
RPXC 846.79 24-Apr
SMT 142.96 24-Apr
STRA 582.22 24-Apr
TSRA 2,029.06 24-Apr
UIS 1,084.45 24-Apr
VEC 271.04 24-Apr
VIAB 28,812.40 24-Apr
WTW 467.78 24-Apr
WILN 319.77 24-Apr

Listing stocks I want to explore further:
  • CSCO
  • ENTA
  • FLR
  • GILD
  • HPQ
  • LQDT
  • PMFT
  • PSDV
  • NLNK

Then throw in TNH, CTCM & CBI, which do not make this list but are high in my own version of the list. Finally, I will also include MNDO, which is a bit smaller in market cap.  So a lucky 13?  I clearly need one more - oh yeah, DEPO.

CSCO - hard to ignore Goldman Sachs placing on conviction list. They have a $34 target and toss in a 3% dividend. That is nothing to sneeze at.  I do now think about whether the stock is also MFI Formula "worthy".  In this case it is.  Even selling in my May tranche, I do have CSCO in my August tranche (select) and December 31st (formula).  That seems like enough conviction. Though I will buy on July 1st should Mr Random insist.

ENTA - I will admit that I do not fully understand this stock.  they are at $37, down from $52 earlier this year.   They are a biotech company, though they do have earnings to go along with their 52 employees.  I will need to do some more research here to see what their pipeline looks like, but they will certainly make the first cut.

FLR - I took a pounding with my construction picks in August and November (AGX, FLR & CBI). They are down an average of 9.5%, though a couple months ago it was much much worse. So they have battled back. FLR feels like the least under-priced, so I will skip them.

GILD - again, pharmaceuticals have traditionally done very well in the MFI world.  Who knows, GILD is US-based and the playbook has been to roll these up (see ACT or VRX) in Ireland or the UK to get some tax-savings.  I do not know a lot about GILD, except that they have a drug that may be under some competitive fire.  Historically, I have felt that markets over-react to this fear. I think GILD makes the cut to the next round.

More to follow.


Saturday, April 25, 2015

Newest Monthly Tracking Portfolio

So you can play along at home, here is the most recent tracking portfolio, using prices as of the end of Friday:

Stock  Initial Price   52 week low   Mkt Cap 
ACHI                5.66                 5.55           543
ADMS              17.70                13.60           311
AGX              32.57                26.09           477
ANIK              38.35                34.16           570
APEI              30.58                26.24           525
APOL              17.51                16.58         1,885
BCOR              13.94                12.61           570
BKE              47.70                41.96         2,308
BRCD              12.10                 7.95         5,124
CLCT              22.96                18.21           204
CPLA              66.65                52.89           816
CSCO              28.82                22.43     147,184
DEPO              27.65                 9.85         1,639
EGL              30.24                29.36           532
ENTA              37.14                30.13           691
FLR              60.11                51.80         8,934
GILD            103.70                72.77     155,439
GME              40.71                31.69         4,384
GORO                3.38                 2.62           183
HPQ              33.26                31.00       60,600
HRB              32.26                26.99         8,880
IDCC              53.84                33.03         1,988
IQNT              19.31                10.06           648
KFY              32.46                24.13         1,636
KING              16.76                10.68         5,396
KORS              63.48                61.23       12,761
LQDT                9.43                 7.32           282
MSB              15.28                11.41           200
NATH              46.49                46.00           209
NHTC              22.44                 5.45           281
NLNK              52.10                17.32         1,458
NSR              27.92                20.32         1,538
NSU                3.82                 3.17           763
ONE                2.76                 2.15           132
PBI              22.91                21.15         4,605
PDLI                7.02                 6.52         1,131
PETS              17.35                12.07           352
PFMT                3.22                 3.08           159
PPC              23.62                19.99         6,118
PSDV                4.16                 3.40           122
QCOM              68.24                62.26     111,436
RPXC              15.03                11.94           847
SMT                1.17                 1.10           143
STRA              53.40                41.52           582
TSRA              38.40                20.38         2,029
UIS              21.82                18.72         1,084
VEC              25.85                19.22           271
VIAB              70.74                63.11       28,812
WILN                2.66                 2.38           320
WTW                8.25                 6.71           468


Dividend Stocks

Here are the stocks that will qualify as dividend stocks (yield over 2.6% and inclusive of special dividends):

Stock Initial Price 52 week low Mkt Cap Yield Special Dividend
BKE              47.70                41.96         2,308 8.2% 1
CLCT              22.96                18.21           204 6.1% 0
CSCO              28.82                22.43     147,184 2.9% 0
EGL              30.24                29.36           532 37.7% 1
GME              40.71                31.69         4,384 3.5% 0
GORO                3.38                 2.62           183 3.6% 0
IQNT              19.31                10.06           648 3.1% 0
KING              16.76                10.68         5,396 5.5% 1
MSB              15.28                11.41           200 16.8% 0
NATH              46.49                46.00           209 53.8% 1
NSU                3.82                 3.17           763 4.2% 0
PBI              22.91                21.15         4,605 3.3% 0
PDLI                7.02                 6.52         1,131 8.5% 0
PETS              17.35                12.07           352 3.9% 0
PPC              23.62                19.99         6,118 24.4% 1
QCOM              68.24                62.26     111,436 2.8% 0
TSRA              38.40                20.38         2,029 3.2% 1
WILN                2.66                 2.38           320 6.4% 0

Dog Stocks

Here are the dog stocks, still on the list a year later and down a bunch:

Stock Initial Price 52 week low Mkt Cap
APOL              17.51                16.58         1,885
LQDT                9.43                 7.32           282
NSR              27.92                20.32         1,538
PFMT                3.22                 3.08           159
WTW                8.25                 6.71           468

New Stocks

Here are stocks that have not been in my tracking portfolios for the past 12 months:

Stock Initial Price 52 week low Mkt Cap New
KFY              32.46                24.13         1,636 1
KORS              63.48                61.23       12,761 1
NATH              46.49                46.00           209 1
NLNK              52.10                17.32         1,458 1
NSU                3.82                 3.17           763 1

Enjoy