Sunday, November 30, 2014

November 28th, 2014 MFI Tracking Portfolio

In case people are playing along at home, here are the stocks that qualify in my dividend component of my most recent tracking portfolio (in descending market cap order):

Stock  Initial Price   52 week low   Mkt Cap   Total Dividend  Yield
CSCO              27.64                20.22     140,024                     0.74 2.7%
CA              31.15                25.25       13,716                     1.00 3.2%
COH              37.12                32.72       10,230                     1.35 3.6%
PBI              24.62                21.01         4,948                     0.75 3.1%
KING              15.25                10.68         4,905                     0.46 3.0%
GME              37.81                33.10         4,273                     1.60 4.2%
NUS              41.80                38.12         2,479                     1.38 3.3%
BKE              51.19                41.45         2,476                     2.08 4.1%
TSRA              34.18                17.60         1,801                     0.92 2.7%
CJREF              18.88                18.01         1,622                     0.99 5.2%
PDLI                8.26                 7.22         1,379                     0.60 7.3%
RGR              38.09                36.66           740                     1.62 4.3%
IQNT              18.42                 9.80           610                     0.51 2.8%
ITRN              21.70                19.52           455                     0.93 4.3%
WILN                3.17                 2.86           381                     0.16 5.0%
SPOK              15.86                12.58           343                     0.50 3.2%
PETS              13.50                12.07           274                     0.68 5.0%
GORO                3.60                 3.47           195                     0.14 3.9%
LBMH                2.80                 2.30           148                     0.12 4.4%
AWRE                4.41                 3.46           101                     1.75 39.7%


So if I were starting a new "MFI Formula" tranche, I'd have 12 or 13 to choose from (I will have to look off cut off point - I think I said $600 million).

Here are the stocks that qualify as "new":

Stock  Initial Price   52 week low   Mkt Cap 
UBNT              28.90                27.86         2,553
IDCC              49.88                26.25         1,919
CJREF              18.88                18.01         1,622
TPUB              21.09                15.00           536
WILN                3.17                 2.86           381
VEC              28.26                19.34           297
ADMS              14.69                12.02           249
AWRE                4.41                 3.46           101
Interestingly, as I look at this I see TPUB should be on both lists (Yahoo finance sucks). They have a 3.4% yield.

College Funds & MFI Index Update

College Funds Hanging In There

Proving buy and hold can still work, here is a look at the college funds for my kids:

2009 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
ACE      32.86      114.34          10.22 279%
CB      35.37      103.05            8.93 217%
VR      21.92        41.50            7.48 123%
Total 206%
2010 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
ACE      47.61      114.34            8.98 159%
CB      49.20      103.05            7.53 125%
VR      26.25        41.50            6.68 84%
Total 122%
2011 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
ACE      62.09      114.34            7.35 96%
CB      58.15      103.05            6.05 88%
VR      30.52        41.50            5.80 55%
Total 80%
1/12 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
GNW        6.66         9.09               -   36%
LNC      19.72        56.63            1.28 194%
Total 115%
10/12 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
GNW        5.35         9.09               -   70%
VR      35.79        41.50            4.05 27%
Total 49%
1/13 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
GNW        8.12         9.09               -   12%
LNC      27.50        56.63            0.84 109%
Total 60%
10/13 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
IBM    181.51      162.17            5.20 -8%
CSCO      22.91        27.64            0.74 24%
Total 8%
2014 Tranche Start Current Dividend Gain
MET      53.46        55.61            1.33 7%
LNC      47.66        56.63            0.16 19%
Total 13%


They were definitely hurt by the GNW fiasco, but overall are doing decently. IBM looks like my one sour pick of late.  

MFI Index

As my readers may know, I have created an MFI index, a listing of fifty stocks that I change once a year and then track over time against the Russell 3000.  Since 2006, it has been an absolute dead heat.

Annual Inception to Date
Year Russell MFI Russell ITD MFI ITD
2006 11.40% 15.03% 11.40% 15.03%
2007 4.09% -6.69% 15.96% 7.34%
2008 -37.05% -37.97% -27.00% -33.42%
2009 32.51% 45.18% -3.27% -3.34%
2010 18.38% 22.77% 14.50% 18.67%
2011 -0.56% -10.47% 13.87% 6.25%
2012 16.43% 9.70% 32.57% 16.56%
2013 33.01% 51.70% 76.34% 76.82%
2014 12.36% 12.52% 98.13% 98.96%

Here are the fifty stocks in 2014, with performance so far this year and in the 4th quarter:

Index Stock Start 30-Sep Current YTD Change Q4 Change
1   ATVI      17.83         20.99         21.85 22.5% 4.1%
2   MO      38.39         47.38         51.70 34.7% 9.1%
3   APOL      27.32         25.15         31.22 14.3% 24.1%
4   AAPL    561.02      714.88       845.43 50.7% 18.3%
5   AGX      27.56         33.38         32.47 17.8% -2.7%
6   BAH      19.15         23.61         27.53 43.8% 16.6%
7   BKE      52.56         46.05         52.07 -0.9% 13.1%
8   CA      33.65         28.69         32.15 -4.5% 12.1%
9   CACI      73.22         71.27         89.19 21.8% 25.1%
10   CHE      76.62      103.52       110.95 44.8% 7.2%
11   CRUS      20.43         20.85         18.29 -10.5% -12.3%
12   CSCO      22.43         25.53         28.19 25.7% 10.4%
13   COH      56.13         36.62         38.13 -32.1% 4.1%
14   CRTX         9.49           9.50            9.50 0.1% 0.0%
15   DLX      52.19         56.01         59.60 14.2% 6.4%
16   DHX         7.25           8.38         10.87 49.9% 29.7%
17   EBIX      14.71         14.41         16.44 11.7% 14.1%
18   EGL      33.40         31.17         42.05 25.9% 34.9%
19   GME      49.26         42.19         39.13 -20.6% -7.3%
20   GTIV      12.41         16.78         19.41 56.4% 15.7%
21   GNI      68.10         25.95         31.12 -54.3% 19.9%
22   HLF      78.70         44.05         43.55 -44.7% -1.1%
23   IQNT      11.41         12.60         18.87 65.4% 49.8%
24   ESI      33.58           4.29            8.31 -75.3% 93.7%
25   LPS      37.38         37.30         37.30 -0.2% 0.0%
26   LQDT      22.66         13.75         10.51 -53.6% -23.6%
27   LO      50.68         61.76         64.99 28.2% 5.2%
28   MSFT      37.41         47.20         48.93 30.8% 3.7%
29   MYGN      20.98         38.57         33.53 59.8% -13.1%
30   NATR      17.32         16.63         16.82 -2.9% 1.1%
31   NOC    114.61      133.77       142.94 24.7% 6.9%
32   PDLI         8.44           7.92            8.71 3.2% 0.0%
33   PFMT      10.30           8.08            6.80 -34.0% -15.8%
34   PETS      16.63         14.11         14.23 -14.4% 0.9%
35   PRSC      25.72         48.38         39.13 52.1% -19.1%
36   QCOR      54.45         94.50         94.50 73.6% 0.0%
37   RTN      90.70      102.83       108.52 19.6% 5.5%
38   RAI      49.99         60.34         67.92 35.9% 12.6%
39   RPXC      16.90         13.73         13.12 -22.4% -4.4%
40   SAIC      33.07         45.07         51.75 56.5% 14.8%
41   SWHC      13.49           9.44            9.97 -26.1% 5.6%
42   STRA      34.47         59.88         75.69 119.6% 26.4%
43   RGR      73.09         50.17         39.71 -45.7% -20.8%
44   UIS      33.57         23.41         26.72 -20.4% 14.1%
45   UNTD      13.76         10.95         13.06 -5.1% 19.3%
46   SPOK      14.28         13.39         16.36 14.6% 22.2%
47   USNA      75.58         73.66       106.64 41.1% 44.8%
48   VCI      34.25         34.02         34.02 -0.7% 0.0%
49   VGR      16.37         22.98         24.02 46.7% 4.5%
50   WTW      32.93         27.44         29.00 -11.9% 5.7%
Total    17,682      18,372       19,896 12.5% 8.3%

That 8.3% gain in the fourth quarter is pretty darned impressive.  I would love to have that.  As a side note, my MFI select tranches are up 4.5% in the 4th quarter and my MFI formula tranche is up 5.5%.