| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change |
| CRME | 4.46 | 0.49 | -89% |
| CECO | 21.19 | 7.00 | -67% |
| SCEI | 4.12 | 1.61 | -61% |
| AMED | 33.66 | 14.68 | -56% |
| PWER | 7.69 | 3.81 | -50% |
| UIS | 32.50 | 17.66 | -46% |
| MPAA | 13.81 | 7.64 | -45% |
| VNDA | 7.66 | 4.41 | -42% |
| IDCC | 45.45 | 27.19 | -40% |
| ASTX | 2.64 | 1.59 | -40% |
| CPLA | 49.57 | 30.19 | -39% |
| TNAV | 10.24 | 6.59 | -36% |
| GTAT | 9.65 | 6.27 | -35% |
| OSK | 34.95 | 22.83 | -35% |
| AFAM | 36.14 | 24.08 | -33% |
| CHKE | 17.96 | 12.40 | -31% |
| UNTD | 5.79 | 4.08 | -30% |
| GNI | 90.89 | 64.81 | -29% |
| SNDK | 48.99 | 35.89 | -27% |
| VECO | 48.90 | 36.00 | -26% |
| PETS | 14.07 | 11.07 | -21% |
| STRA | 115.42 | 91.78 | -20% |
| ARO | 25.90 | 20.69 | -20% |
| GME | 26.37 | 21.09 | -20% |
| TSRA | 18.40 | 15.40 | -16% |
| APOL | 39.80 | 33.75 | -15% |
| IPXL | 26.46 | 22.45 | -15% |
| HRB | 16.84 | 14.48 | -14% |
| LPS | 27.85 | 24.81 | -11% |
| DLX | 25.71 | 22.98 | -11% |
| TER | 17.81 | 16.03 | -10% |
| USMO | 13.82 | 12.85 | -7% |
| EME | 30.00 | 28.69 | -4% |
| PRSC | 14.03 | 13.43 | -4% |
| PPD | 65.94 | 66.50 | 1% |
| RIGL | 7.82 | 8.01 | 2% |
| VPHM | 19.72 | 20.27 | 3% |
| DELL | 15.27 | 15.82 | 4% |
| MFW | 24.04 | 26.00 | 8% |
| MRX | 34.75 | 37.66 | 8% |
| PDLI | 5.70 | 6.40 | 12% |
| CMTL | 27.07 | 30.78 | 14% |
| RTN | 46.95 | 53.68 | 14% |
| MSFT | 24.84 | 30.65 | 23% |
| CNU | 5.05 | 6.38 | 26% |
| POZN | 5.78 | 7.45 | 29% |
| NSR | 26.40 | 35.21 | 33% |
| LO | 94.67 | 130.57 | 38% |
| AGX | 9.52 | 13.85 | 45% |
Not sure what else to say but yuck.
Overall the picture isn't purty either:
| Average of Percent Change | ||
| Date | Total | IWV |
| 1/6/2006 | 16.0% | 10.9% |
| 2/17/2006 | 21.2% | 14.6% |
| 3/29/2006 | 13.0% | 9.6% |
| 4/7/2006 | 10.3% | 12.1% |
| 5/12/2006 | 20.4% | 18.6% |
| 5/31/2006 | 29.2% | 23.3% |
| 6/30/2006 | 22.4% | 20.0% |
| 7/31/2006 | 19.7% | 17.3% |
| 8/31/2006 | 13.0% | 13.3% |
| 9/28/2006 | 12.7% | 14.6% |
| 10/27/2006 | 10.3% | 12.0% |
| 11/29/2006 | -0.3% | 4.8% |
| 12/28/2006 | -6.9% | 3.4% |
| 1/26/2007 | -10.2% | -6.6% |
| 2/27/2007 | -3.7% | -1.0% |
| 3/26/2007 | -9.8% | -5.5% |
| 4/27/2007 | -10.9% | -5.0% |
| 5/29/2007 | -11.5% | -6.3% |
| 7/3/2007 | -30.0% | -15.6% |
| 7/30/2007 | -19.9% | -11.5% |
| 8/30/2007 | -12.5% | -8.7% |
| 9/27/2007 | -19.0% | -18.2% |
| 11/2/2007 | -40.4% | -34.3% |
| 11/28/2007 | -40.1% | -38.3% |
| 12/28/2007 | -36.3% | -40.0% |
| 1/25/2008 | -36.4% | -35.9% |
| 2/26/2008 | -51.7% | -41.5% |
| 3/24/2008 | -40.9% | -36.8% |
| 4/25/2008 | -25.6% | -31.0% |
| 5/28/2008 | -22.2% | -33.6% |
| 7/2/2008 | -11.7% | -25.3% |
| 7/29/2008 | -10.5% | -20.9% |
| 8/29/2008 | -13.8% | -17.9% |
| 9/26/2008 | -4.3% | -10.0% |
| 10/31/2008 | 18.7% | 13.9% |
| 11/26/2008 | 50.9% | 27.7% |
| 12/26/2008 | 48.9% | 32.3% |
| 1/23/2009 | 59.3% | 36.4% |
| 2/27/2009 | 92.8% | 55.6% |
| 3/27/2009 | 85.8% | 48.1% |
| 4/24/2009 | 69.7% | 45.8% |
| 5/29/2009 | 31.8% | 22.8% |
| 6/29/2009 | 21.3% | 24.0% |
| 7/29/2009 | 19.5% | 15.9% |
| 8/28/2009 | 7.4% | 8.8% |
| 9/25/2009 | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| 10/30/2009 | 22.7% | 18.3% |
| 11/27/2009 | 24.3% | 13.6% |
| 12/31/2009 | 23.7% | 18.1% |
| 1/22/2010 | 19.0% | 20.6% |
| 2/26/2010 | 18.6% | 23.6% |
| 3/25/2010 | 10.0% | 15.4% |
| 4/23/2010 | 7.1% | 11.4% |
| 5/28/2010 | 19.3% | 25.4% |
| 6/29/2010 | 16.7% | 25.7% |
| 7/29/2010 | 5.4% | 20.1% |
| 9/2/2010 | 7.3% | 10.1% |
| 9/24/2010 | -4.3% | 0.3% |
| 10/29/2010 | -2.9% | 10.4% |
| 11/26/2010 | -8.5% | 1.4% |
| 1/3/2011 | -11.4% | 0.1% |
| 1/28/2011 | -7.6% | 4.9% |
| 2/25/2011 | -5.5% | 5.0% |
| 3/24/2011 | -4.4% | 7.4% |
| 4/21/2011 | -16.0% | 3.2% |
| 5/27/2011 | -8.0% | 3.4% |
| 6/24/2011 | -4.8% | 8.4% |
| 7/29/2011 | -4.2% | 6.9% |
| 8/26/2011 | 9.1% | 17.9% |
| 9/30/2011 | 19.3% | 22.8% |
| 10/28/2011 | 1.1% | 7.6% |
| 11/25/2011 | 15.2% | 19.4% |
| 12/29/2011 | 6.9% | 9.3% |
| 1/27/2012 | -1.5% | 4.1% |
| 2/24/2012 | -4.3% | 0.1% |
| 3/23/2012 | -7.5% | -2.0% |
| 4/27/2012 | -3.0% | -2.5% |
| Grand Total | 4.7% | 5.3% |
What is particularly distressing is that the past 16 portfolios have all "lost" and the open 12 portfolios are losing as well. That is a long losing streak and does make you really wonder whether the MFI works still? And it isn't just me, Steve Alexander is struggling as well. His open recommendations are down 6% (my open is up 1.5% and Russell is 7.9%, so about same pct) and overall since he started is down 1.6% per stock.
Here is where you'd be with $100,000 initial investment in the first 12 months of 2006:
| Category | Value |
| Total | 111,480 |
| Total New | 102,615 |
| Total Dividend | 219,414 |
| Total Russell 3K | 121,745 |
Again, the dividend approach (2.6% or greater) has been the "best". But in the "what have you done for me lately" heading, open divvy stocks are up on average 1.7%, so very close to the overall MFI open average.
As you can tell, I am not exactly a fan right now. Good luck to everyone who has stuck with it.
Thanks for the update, Marsh.
ReplyDeleteFundamentally, the MFI approach makes so much sense to me. This long trend of underwhelming performance is truly disappointing.
Please keep us updated.
I am totally disillusioned by MFI when I find out that GNI is on the official list. I guess the computer doesn't take into account that it's a trust that's going to dissolve in 2015. It's treated as a perpetuity.
ReplyDeleteMFI is mechanical and thus doesn't consider additional facts about stocks like GNI or some of these bio techs that get a one time royalty payment. You think a person could "weed" those out and out-perform. But Steve at Magic Formula Investing is trying to do that and is also struggling.
ReplyDelete