Saturday, July 31, 2010

New 7/29/10 Portfolio

I just initiated my 7/29/2010 tracking portfolio, which is a list of top 50 stocks > 100m. I also have two subsets of the larger portfolio, (1) stocks new to list in past year and (2) stocks with yields > 2.4%. For these three portfolios, here is how you would be doing if you started with 100k spread out evenly in 12 months of 2006:

Date General Russell 3000 New High Yield
8/28/2009 7,589 7,756 7,652 11,539
9/25/2009 7,681 7,559 10,655 10,505
10/30/2009 7,062 7,617 6,139 11,393
11/27/2009 7,916 7,130 7,594 14,112
12/31/2009 8,672 7,618 9,447 12,382
1/22/2010 9,309 7,976 7,142 19,588
2/26/2010 8,518 8,299 9,832 19,177
3/25/2010 8,438 7,850 7,039 16,748
4/23/2010 9,802 8,544 10,975 19,799
5/28/2010 9,498 7,903 8,332 19,105
6/29/2010 7,915 8,270 9,757 15,391
7/29/2010 8,521 7,928 8,392 14,457





Total 100,921 94,450 102,957 184,196

Finally here are the "new" stocks this month:

Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change
SNDK 43.65 43.7 0%
PETS 15.81 15.95 1%
LIWA 8.62 8.73 1%
GRMN 28.55 28.51 0%
COCO 9.31 9.1 -2%
csgs 19.61 18.86 -4%

And here are the High Yield Stocks:

Stock Initial Price End Price Percent Change
VALU 14.17 13.9 -1.9%
UNTD 6.42 6.32 -1.6%
USMO 14.66 14.83 1.2%
RTN 46.67 46.27 -0.9%
LO 75.8 76.24 0.6%
GRMN 28.55 28.51 -0.1%
HRB 15.45 15.68 1.5%

Might be time to buy Garmin... it is on both lists!

Sunday, July 25, 2010

Current Holdings

Here is my current portfolio:

Symbol Initial Price Current Price Avg of Gain Avg of IWV Gain
CCME $10.31 $10.70 6.2% 0.0%
CEL $25.75 $26.85 4.3% 3.7%
CEU $3.91 $3.87 -1.1% 1.3%
CF $89.45 $80.13 -10.4% 0.7%
CHKE $18.09 $19.15 7.2% 2.4%
CMFO $4.66 $4.58 -1.4% 3.9%
CSKI $9.87 $10.70 8.4% 2.5%
FLL $3.15 $3.15 0.0% -0.7%
IPXL $19.23 $16.08 -16.4% 2.3%
KSW $3.48 $2.79 -16.9% 2.5%
NEWN $7.13 $6.10 -12.4% -3.5%
PM $44.35 $50.66 15.6% 1.0%
PRSC $13.18 $14.11 7.1% 1.1%
RAI $53.55 $57.08 10.0% -3.3%
TTT $9.60 $11.78 23.4% 10.9%
UNTD $5.78 $6.30 9.4% 3.9%
UTA $6.53 $6.30 0.1% 3.1%
VALU $14.70 $15.07 2.5% 3.0%
VALV $6.46 $7.50 16.1% 0.5%
Grand Total $14.97 $15.34 2.4% 2.2%





Still 27% in cash.

Here is my performance year by year verses Russell 3000. Note that some of the earlier years, the Russell 3000 doesn't match the annual gains as the number reflects my timing of putting money into MFI.

MFI Annual Performance

ITD Annual
2006 10.74% 10.74%
2007 -6.57% -15.63%
2008 -41.60% -37.50%
2009 0.71% 72.47%
2010 -7.20% -7.86%



IWV Annual Performance

ITD Annual
2006 11.23% 11.23%
2007 4.65% -5.91%
2008 -30.54% -33.63%
2009 -13.95% 23.87%
2010 -14.20% -0.29%

Obviously the -7.86% this year is distressing.

Friday, July 23, 2010

Quick Update

A nice week for a change. My huge sell-off back on June 28th was still the "right" move as those stocks are down a composite 2.1% (thought they were down 7% last weekend). When I made the move, I think that placed me about 60% in cash. I have steadily been putting it back in and am now 27% in cash. The stocks I have bought, are up 6.9% while the Russell 3000 (matching the purchase dates) is up 3.1%. Here is my most recent chart:


A chunk of my "new" money has been going into "safer" stocks with decent dividends like UNTD, CEL, CHKE and PM. But I have used the "barbell" approach as my other money has gone to riskier stocks, namely the Chinese names of UTA, NEWN, CCME, CSKI, CEU and CMFO... all stocks I had held during my sell-off.

I almost bought DLX as part of my dividend stocks, but I was trying to reduce the # of eggs in my basket. They had great earnings this week and have shot up about 10%.

The stock that really has me wondering of late is IPXL. They hit the screen 5/7 at 16.66. They promptly shot up to over $21. Now they are at $16.07, on no news. I do wonder if some buyers/sellers have a way of tracking generic sales and whether someone is taking generic market share. I keep thinking about buying, but will likely abstain.

There is no doubt that MFI continues to underperform, even as the market has bounced off its lows. Look at my open portfolios in my monthly tracking:

Date Total IWV
7/29/2009 18.6% 16.2%
8/28/2009 5.7% 9.9%
9/25/2009 4.3% 7.7%
10/30/2009 7.3% 9.3%
11/27/2009 3.8% 3.8%
12/31/2009 -0.1% 0.6%
1/22/2010 -0.2% 2.5%
2/26/2010 -0.6% 1.0%
3/25/2010 -8.5% -4.7%
4/23/2010 -14.0% -9.4%
5/28/2010 -3.4% 0.8%
6/29/2010 3.4% 5.9%

Note that only the oldest portfolio is beating the Russell 3000. Then look at the open stocks in my mechanical portfolios:

Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
RTN 7/24/09 45.39 49.06 1.00 98.06 1.58 10.3% 14.2% -3.9%
CBZ 7/31/09 6.54 6.52 - 98.81 1.58 -0.3% 13.3% -13.6%
CBI 7/31/09 13.95 20.89 - 98.81 1.58 49.7% 13.3% 36.4%
DRC 7/31/09 29.11 34.34 - 98.81 1.58 18.0% 13.3% 4.6%
JEC 7/31/09 40.98 39.30 - 98.81 1.58 -4.1% 13.3% -17.4%
NPSP 7/31/09 3.89 6.35 - 98.81 1.58 63.2% 13.3% 49.9%
ASGN 7/31/09 4.23 4.97 - 98.81 1.58 17.5% 13.3% 4.2%
AGX 8/7/09 12.35 8.71 - 98.81 1.58 -29.5% 13.3% -42.8%
BBND 8/7/09 4.00 3.20 - 98.81 1.58 -20.0% 13.3% -33.3%
LHCG 8/7/09 24.55 21.77 - 98.81 1.58 -11.3% 13.3% -24.7%
RGR 8/7/09 11.45 15.92 0.28 98.81 1.58 41.5% 13.3% 28.1%
PRIM 8/7/09 6.95 6.77 0.08 100.79 1.58 -1.5% 11.1% -12.6%
SEPR 8/7/09 18.12 23.00 - 100.79 1.58 26.9% 11.1% 15.8%
CEU 8/21/09 5.10 3.87 - 102.96 1.58 -24.1% 8.8% -32.9%
CYTK 8/21/09 3.04 2.56 - 102.96 1.58 -15.8% 8.8% -24.6%
CMFO 8/28/09 4.55 4.58 - 102.96 1.58 0.7% 8.8% -8.1%
NAVR 9/4/09 1.79 2.40 - 102.60 1.58 34.1% 9.1% 24.9%
WTW 9/11/09 26.00 26.78 0.53 104.77 1.58 5.0% 6.9% -1.9%
MIPS 9/18/09 3.72 5.49 - 106.72 1.58 47.6% 4.9% 42.6%
ESI 10/30/09 90.35 85.44 - 103.56 1.07 -5.4% 7.6% -13.1%
VRSK 10/30/09 27.43 29.45 - 103.56 1.07 7.4% 7.6% -0.3%
APOL 11/6/09 55.99 49.27 - 107.13 1.07 -12.0% 4.1% -16.1%
CBST 11/6/09 17.60 21.73 - 107.13 1.07 23.5% 4.1% 19.4%
SNTA 11/6/09 3.20 3.01 - 107.13 1.07 -5.9% 4.1% -10.0%
IMMU 11/6/09 3.61 3.28 - 107.13 1.07 -9.1% 4.1% -13.2%
PBH 11/13/09 6.95 7.48 - 109.62 1.07 7.6% 1.7% 5.9%
IDCC 11/20/09 23.56 27.26 - 109.43 1.07 15.7% 1.9% 13.8%
PDLI 11/27/09 6.63 5.96 0.50 109.57 1.07 -2.6% 1.7% -4.3%
CBPO 12/4/09 9.06 11.07 - 111.01 1.07 22.2% 0.4% 21.8%
XOMA 12/4/09 0.72 0.34 - 111.01 1.07 -53.2% 0.4% -53.7%
Valv 12/31/09 5.15 7.50 - 111.44 0.48 45.6% -0.5% 46.1%
RAI 1/15/10 53.81 57.08 0.90 113.64 0.48 7.7% -2.4% 10.2%
TRMS 1/15/10 2.45 2.21 - 113.64 0.48 -9.8% -2.4% -7.4%
SAI 1/15/10 18.90 16.98 - 113.64 0.48 -10.2% -2.4% -7.7%
NATH 1/28/10 14.70 15.97 - 108.57 0.48 8.6% 2.1% 6.5%
SMED 2/5/10 6.74 4.54 - 106.66 0.48 -32.6% 4.0% -36.6%
SPMD 2/5/10 36.63 19.11 - 106.66 0.48 -47.8% 4.0% -51.8%
UIS 2/5/10 34.25 23.79 - 106.66 0.48 -30.5% 4.0% -34.5%
QKLS 2/12/10 5.69 4.80 - 108.04 0.48 -15.6% 2.6% -18.3%
MGIC 2/12/10 1.78 2.43 - 108.04 0.48 36.5% 2.6% 33.9%
ESIC 2/19/10 2.07 2.33 - 111.14 0.48 12.6% -0.2% 12.8%
ODSY 2/19/10 17.89 26.23 - 111.14 0.48 46.6% -0.2% 46.8%
HRB 2/26/10 17.28 15.23 0.15 110.74 0.48 -11.0% 0.1% -11.1%
TNDM 2/26/10 16.12 13.05 - 110.74 0.48 -19.0% 0.1% -19.2%
DEXO 2/26/10 29.80 17.77 - 110.74 0.48 -40.4% 0.1% -40.5%
AFAM 3/5/10 35.52 24.98 - 114.25 0.48 -29.7% -2.9% -26.7%
DNB 3/5/10 69.95 70.34 - 114.25 0.48 0.6% -2.9% 3.5%
SNTS 3/5/10 4.87 2.60 - 114.25 0.48 -46.6% -2.9% -43.7%
KIRK 3/12/10 20.11 17.82 - 115.46 0.48 -11.4% -4.0% -7.4%
PRSC 3/12/10 14.18 14.11 - 115.46 0.48 -0.5% -4.0% 3.5%
QDEL 3/25/10 13.73 11.98 - 116.58 - -12.7% -5.3% -7.5%
SVA 4/9/10 5.83 4.31 - 119.55 - -26.1% -7.6% -18.4%
VALU 4/9/10 22.07 15.07 3.00 119.55 - -18.1% -7.6% -10.5%
BDSI 4/16/10 4.12 2.29 - 119.36 - -44.4% -7.5% -36.9%
LOV 4/23/10 3.45 3.23 - 121.81 - -6.4% -9.4% 3.0%
MD 4/23/10 57.02 47.52 - 121.81 - -16.7% -9.4% -7.3%
ABC 4/23/10 31.13 30.53 - 121.81 - -1.9% -9.4% 7.4%
SNDK 4/30/10 39.84 41.43 - 121.81 - 4.0% -9.4% 13.3%
OSK 4/30/10 38.62 31.98 - 121.81 - -17.2% -9.4% -7.8%
GXDX 5/7/10 27.89 17.52 - 111.26 - -37.2% -0.8% -36.4%
IPXL 5/7/10 16.66 16.08 - 111.26 - -3.5% -0.8% -2.7%
SOHU 5/7/10 44.19 45.04 - 111.26 - 1.9% -0.8% 2.7%
CHOP 5/14/10 6.54 5.72 - 113.89 - -12.5% -3.1% -9.5%
LIWA 5/14/10 8.24 8.79 - 113.89 - 6.7% -3.1% 9.7%
FLL 5/14/10 3.10 3.15 - 113.89 - 1.6% -3.1% 4.7%
MRX 5/21/10 22.50 25.74 - 107.71 - 14.4% 2.5% 11.9%
CRXX 6/4/10 1.53 1.50 - 106.82 - -2.0% 3.4% -5.3%
DJCO 6/4/10 71.00 72.50 - 106.82 - 2.1% 3.4% -1.2%
TNAV 6/4/10 8.53 8.98 - 106.82 - 5.3% 3.4% 1.9%
JGBO 6/11/10 8.45 8.75 - 109.68 - 3.6% 0.7% 2.9%
DRWI 6/11/10 5.94 5.65 - 109.68 - -4.9% 0.7% -5.5%
SCEI 6/18/10 7.36 5.91 - 111.73 - -19.7% -1.2% -18.5%
SUPG 7/16/10 1.75 1.90 - 106.66 - 8.6% 3.5% 5.1%






Top 50 Portfolio







Totals 16.2% 0.9% 15.3%
50.9% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark
Closed 22.9% 0.3% 22.6%
S&P C

110.41

Open -1.7% 2.5% -4.2%

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Mechanical Update July 17th 2010

Two new stocks this weekend - DRWI hits the top 30 screen and SUPG hits the top 50 screen. I'd probably consider DRWI if I wasn't so bearish right now. I am about 50% in cash and the MFI stocks I sold June 29th are down about 7% since we parted ways.

Here is a snapshot of open top 30 mechanical stocks... it isn't pretty of late. Stocks added in 2010 are down an average of 10.4%.

Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
GIGM 7/24/09 4.98 2.25 - 98.06 1.58 -54.8% 10.4% -65.2%
CBI 7/31/09 13.95 18.34 - 98.81 1.58 31.5% 9.5% 21.9%
BR 7/31/09 17.27 20.13 0.42 98.81 1.58 19.0% 9.5% 9.5%
LO 7/31/09 73.72 73.53 3.00 98.81 1.58 3.8% 9.5% -5.7%
ITWO 8/7/09 14.36 19.73 - 101.20 1.58 37.4% 7.0% 30.4%
BKE 8/14/09 26.54 27.68 2.20 100.79 1.58 12.6% 7.4% 5.2%
GTLS 8/14/09 20.73 15.41 - 100.79 1.58 -25.7% 7.4% -33.1%
PRIM 8/14/09 6.95 6.05 0.08 100.79 1.58 -11.9% 7.4% -19.3%
SEPR 8/14/09 18.12 23.00 - 100.79 1.58 26.9% 7.4% 19.5%
PVSW 8/14/09 5.00 4.66 - 100.79 1.58 -6.8% 7.4% -14.2%
CEU 8/21/09 5.10 3.94 - 102.96 1.58 -22.7% 5.1% -27.9%
cytk 8/28/09 3.04 2.27 - 103.38 1.58 -25.3% 4.7% -30.0%
jcom 8/28/09 22.14 21.94 - 103.38 1.58 -0.9% 4.7% -5.6%
AMED 9/4/09 35.00 26.02 - 102.06 1.58 -25.7% 6.1% -31.7%
MIPS 9/18/09 3.72 5.01 - 106.72 1.58 34.7% 1.4% 33.3%
MHP 9/25/09 23.67 29.33 0.46 104.45 1.07 25.9% 3.1% 22.7%
AGX 10/16/09 12.50 8.84 - 108.89 1.07 -29.3% -1.1% -28.2%
BBND 10/30/09 3.70 3.05 - 103.56 1.07 -17.6% 4.0% -21.6%
FLR 10/30/09 44.42 42.79 - 103.56 1.07 -3.7% 4.0% -7.7%
RGR 10/30/09 10.62 14.55 0.28 103.56 1.07 39.6% 4.0% 35.6%
RTN 10/30/09 45.28 47.73 0.69 103.56 1.07 6.9% 4.0% 2.9%
VRSK 10/30/09 27.43 28.85 - 103.56 1.07 5.2% 4.0% 1.2%
immu 11/6/09 3.61 3.04 - 107.13 1.07 -15.8% 0.6% -16.3%
cbst 11/6/09 17.60 21.37 - 107.13 1.07 21.4% 0.6% 20.9%
snta 11/6/09 3.20 2.71 - 107.13 1.07 -15.3% 0.6% -15.9%
CNU 11/13/09 3.10 3.41 - 109.62 1.07 10.0% -1.7% 11.7%
IDCC 11/20/09 23.56 26.44 - 109.43 1.07 12.2% -1.6% 13.8%
PDLI 11/27/09 6.63 5.95 0.50 109.57 1.07 -2.7% -1.7% -1.0%
ARO 12/4/09 28.95 43.02 - 111.01 1.07 48.6% -3.0% 51.6%
CBPO 12/4/09 9.06 11.64 - 111.01 1.07 28.5% -3.0% 31.4%
VALV 12/31/09 5.15 6.20 - 111.44 0.48 20.4% -3.9% 24.2%
SMED 2/5/10 6.74 4.66 - 106.66 0.48 -30.9% 0.5% -31.3%
SPMD 2/5/10 36.63 17.50 - 106.66 0.48 -52.2% 0.5% -52.7%
XOMA 2/5/10 0.42 0.39 - 106.66 0.48 -6.9% 0.5% -7.3%
MGIC 2/19/10 1.77 2.34 - 111.14 0.48 32.2% -3.6% 35.8%
UIS 2/26/10 34.91 20.51 - 110.74 0.48 -41.2% -3.3% -38.0%
SNTS 3/5/10 4.87 2.51 - 114.25 0.48 -48.5% -6.2% -42.2%
PRSC 3/12/10 14.18 12.40 - 115.46 0.48 -12.6% -7.2% -5.3%
WTW 3/19/10 25.20 26.43 - 115.97 - 4.9% -8.0% 12.9%
QDEL 3/25/10 13.73 12.09 - 116.58 - -11.9% -8.5% -3.4%
BDSI 4/16/10 4.12 2.31 - 119.36 - -43.9% -10.6% -33.3%
ABC 4/23/10 31.13 32.14 - 121.81 - 3.2% -12.4% 15.7%
APOL 4/30/10 57.41 45.57 - 118.81 - -20.6% -10.2% -10.4%
SVA 4/30/10 5.79 4.36 - 118.81 - -24.7% -10.2% -14.5%
OSK 4/30/10 38.62 31.02 - 118.81 - -19.7% -10.2% -9.5%
VPHM 5/7/10 12.06 10.91 - 111.26 - -9.5% -4.1% -5.4%
CHOP 5/14/10 6.54 5.18 - 113.89 - -20.8% -6.3% -14.4%
MRX 5/21/10 22.50 23.68 - 107.71 - 5.2% -1.0% 6.2%
CRXX 6/4/10 1.53 1.42 - 106.82 - -7.2% -0.1% -7.0%
TNAV 6/4/10 8.53 8.49 - 106.82 - -0.5% -0.1% -0.3%
JGBO 6/11/10 8.45 7.98 - 109.68 - -5.6% -2.8% -2.8%
VALU 6/11/10 17.84 15.20 - 109.68 - -14.8% -2.8% -12.0%
DRWI 7/16/10 5.23 5.23 - 106.66 - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
















Totals 16.8% 4.2% 12.6%
53.7% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark
Closed 28.5% 6.5% 22.0%
S&P C

106.66

Open -3.8% 0.1% -3.9%