Friday, September 28, 2007

It Is What It Is

Another week in the books. Not a bad day. I was a day late (and a dollar short) on TZOO which I mentioned yesterday as on my short list. It shot up 15% today on takeover rumors (UPDATE - Travelzoo shares surge on takeover talk). I don't think I'll be very verbose today. Just post my charts. Ugly as they are, as the title states, "It is what it is"




Then here are my current holdings and performance:

Current Portfolio
Stock Purchase Date Cost Current Gain
TGB 4/16/2007 $2.64 $5.25 98.9%
ASEI 10/5/2006 $45.85 $62.66 37.1%
TCK 8/16/2007 $36.50 $47.71 30.7%
THO 3/26/2007 $40.30 $44.99 16.8%
MSTR 9/14/2007 $69.55 $79.34 14.1%
VALU 5/29/2007 $44.01 $49.27 12.6%
LRCX 7/3/2007 $47.51 $53.26 12.1%
DGX 3/17/2007 $52.11 $57.77 11.2%
KSW 5/10/2007 $6.48 $7.03 8.6%
CHKE 7/17/2007 $36.70 $38.36 6.6%
AXCA 9/21/2007 $19.53 $20.77 6.3%
UNTD 5/1/2007 $14.51 $15.01 5.8%
TGIS 11/30/2006 $9.18 $9.14 1.7%
BBSI 9/7/2007 $24.13 $23.83 -1.2%
KFY 9/28/2007 $16.74 $16.51 -1.4%
JTX 4/9/2007 $28.70 $27.96 -1.5%
VSNT 7/27/2007 $19.54 $19.21 -1.7%
KSWS 7/27/2007 $23.94 $22.91 -4.1%
PNCL 2/9/2007 $17.07 $16.02 -6.2%
NXG 12/20/2006 $3.04 $2.84 -6.6%
AEO 7/10/2007 $28.42 $26.31 -6.7%
WSTG 5/15/2007 $14.98 $13.52 -8.1%
UG 6/13/2007 $12.09 $10.20 -15.6%
RAIL 2/16/2007 $45.54 $38.20 -15.8%
HGG 8/3/2007 $13.48 $10.50 -22.1%
PACR 1/3/2007 $25.46 $19.05 -23.9%
WNR 7/27/2007 $53.64 $40.58 -24.2%
NOOF 4/27/2007 $8.59 $6.13 -25.7%
EGY 12/13/2006 $6.42 $4.57 -28.8%
CHCG.OB 6/5/2007 $5.93 $3.87 -34.7%
GVHR 9/12/2007 $15.91 $10.25 -34.9%
IVAC 11/23/2006 $23.52 $15.20 -35.4%
USHS 6/25/2007 $11.22 $7.15 -36.2%




















Gain/Loss Open Positions ($): ($21,947)
Gain/Loss Open Positions (%): -3.6%
Gain/Loss Closed Positions ($): $50,513
Gain/Loss Closed Positions (%): 9.2%
Total Gain/Loss ($): $28,566
Benchmark Gain/Loss ($): $73,382
Annual IRR: 5.5%
Total Gain/Loss (%): 5.0%

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Tough Sledding

Not as fun posting when things are so-so. I can tell that staying the course will be difficult. Right now I am about 8 to 9% behind the benchmarks after more than 18 months in. That is real money. I haven't given up, but I am disheartened. I have had some success stories, but you have to look at portfolio in it's entirety. And I know it isn't just me, many of my tracking portfolios have fallen on hard times as well.

I have seen where people are commenting on volatility on the Yahoo board. There is no doubt that in this recent blood-letting that small cap stocks have generally fared much worse than big stocks.

In my current portfolio, I have 33 stocks right now. Only 8 have market caps 1b or more.
AXCA, LRCX, DGX, TCK, THO and UNTD are all in the green. Only AEO and WNR are in the red. So 75% of my $1b stocks are in the green.

Of the 25 stocks under $1b, 18 are underwater. I haven't crunched the numbers, but that seems statistically significant. 75% of stocks > $1b in green, only 28% of stocks under $1b in the green.

Does that mean we should not buy the small stocks? I don't think so. Perhaps more balance might smooth things out a bit in a given year, though I don't know that it would enhance long-term returns.

ASEI (one of my 8 small stocks in the green) hits its anniversary next week. It is up a nifty 38%. I will likely have $ for 2 stocks at that time. I am thinking about GIB, VPHM, TZOO or KG.

Still another 8 to 10 days to decide. Take care everyone!

Thursday, September 20, 2007

A Couple of Changes

Things appear to be getting more "normal". I did make a couple of changes to my portfolio these past two days. I sold FTO. It was early, but FTO was actually a stock that I had rolled forward for a 2nd year, so it was a LT capital gain. I rationalized the sale. FTO (and all the refiners) seem to have seasonality in they drop in the non-driving season and rise in the summer. I felt $46.60 was a good price and I'll likely be able to buy them back in Dec/Jan much cheaper. I did make 35% on FTO.

Then I bought 2 stocks in the top 25: AXCA and KFY. AXCA is a pharmaceutical that seems to be blowing and going. KFY (like many companies in the staffing arena such as HSII, BBSI and GVHR) is way off its 52 week high ($27.13 and I bought at $16.74... actually virtually the 52 week low) yet KFY just had a great quarter.

I do have ASEI coming up for sale in a couple of weeks. I may buy back into VPHM or else GIB looks interesting as well. These Canadian companies have the advantage of the strong Canadian dollar as well.

Speaking of Canadian companies, my natural resource group: TGB, TCK, FDG & NXG all had big days. TGB is now up 85% for me. TCK is up 32% in about a month. There is hope.

Contest Standings

I have taken the 44 portfolios from the stock contest and entered them into Excel. Here are the standings (now including dividends) and then how individual stocks have performed:

Rank

Owner

Total

1

Jeff

152,147

2

fuzzywalnut

151,786

3

Ronrego

151,443

4

Rutroh

150,547

5

Viper Global Index

150,233

6

traehnam

149,633

7

Ankit

149,598

8

kwr446

148,075

9

wootleader

145,592

10

ZeroMotion

143,712

11

AK

143,266

12

Gunnski

143,073

13

pw17pw

142,839

14

SP500 (not index)

142,764

15

Risky

142,627

16

mike

142,592

17

MFI>2b

141,231

18

TedW

141,154

19

Valueorama

140,918

20

mfi>50m

140,753

21

Ayron

139,953

22

bhunji

139,663

23

marshgerda

139,096

24

jamiemb

138,539

25

kjstark

137,950

26

jared

137,629

27

coveredcall

137,577

28

Srini ML

137,376

29

ATLsparty

137,256

30

Roberts1001

137,200

31

chimera

136,257

32

maggiespharma

135,575

33

jchilib

134,968

34

wwe

134,521

35

magicformulainvestor

133,987

36

lpj158

133,703

37

Rharmelink

133,534

38

jaywysocki

132,781

39

DukeCrow

130,796

40

djdk

128,874

41

VA

127,674

42

Hup1psh

125,943

43

Chris_G

124,262

44

jachangmd

116,882


Grand Total

139,227

Rank

Stock

Average of Change

Count of Stock

1

TPX

36.5%

1

2

AVCI

34.6%

11

3

ICFI

31.0%

9

4

BVSN.ob

20.9%

1

5

STEC

20.4%

2

6

FCX

19.5%

2

7

PCU

17.9%

9

8

WEYS

16.7%

1

9

EPIQ

15.7%

9

10

PBT

14.8%

8

11

WDC

13.4%

5

12

PETS

13.2%

1

13

MM

12.4%

2

14

VALU

12.1%

10

15

PG

12.0%

1

16

ASPV

11.4%

11

17

CVX

10.9%

1

18

HBMFF.pk

10.5%

1

19

USPH

10.1%

2

20

DGX

9.1%

1

21

ARTL

8.9%

1

22

XOM

8.7%

2

23

GD

8.2%

1

24

FCGI

7.8%

6

25

CHKE

7.7%

15

26

HLF

7.5%

7

27

VWO

7.3%

1

28

HURC

7.1%

2

29

HRS

6.6%

2

30

FDG

6.5%

6

31

MMM

5.5%

1

32

RNO

5.5%

2

33

LMT

5.1%

1

34

BPT

4.2%

12

35

UEPS

4.0%

2

36

HNR

3.3%

1

37

TCK

3.2%

11

38

AMAT

2.9%

3

39

ROK

2.8%

2

40

AMED

2.8%

1

41

CAI

2.8%

2

42

GNI

2.6%

4

43

AXCA

2.2%

10

44

GRP

2.0%

1

45

CJR

2.0%

1

46

WNI

1.7%

2

47

AEO

1.4%

13

48

BBY

1.4%

5

49

UTMD

1.3%

3

50

GYMB

1.2%

2

51

MOCO

1.1%

3

52

VTI

0.7%

1

53

wmco

0.7%

7

54

LRCX

0.5%

10

55

THE

0.5%

3

56

GIB

0.4%

3

57

VGK

-1.1%

1

58

AMEN

-1.1%

4

59

EGY

-1.5%

16

60

PFE

-1.8%

4

61

NUE

-1.9%

13

62

DEBS

-2.1%

1

63

SCSS

-2.3%

4

64

MOT

-2.4%

1

65

RAI

-2.4%

2

66

FTO

-2.6%

8

67

VPL

-2.8%

1

68

CXR

-3.2%

1

69

BBBY

-3.3%

1

70

BEBE

-3.4%

6

71

BJS

-3.5%

5

72

MSFT

-3.9%

1

73

ATI

-4.6%

1

74

IUSA

-4.7%

1

75

GGG

-4.7%

4

76

SPLS

-4.8%

5

77

USNA

-5.0%

1

78

DPZ

-5.4%

14

79

VLO

-6.2%

2

80

MDP

-7.2%

2

81

MRO

-7.6%

2

82

GLBL

-7.6%

9

83

NXG

-7.8%

3

84

DLX

-8.0%

4

85

VRGY

-8.1%

1

86

ACN

-8.1%

5

87

ABC

-8.3%

1

88

LNCR

-9.0%

4

89

ALOY

-9.0%

5

90

CRWS

-9.1%

1

91

KSW

-9.2%

5

92

MLHR

-9.4%

2

93

HAS

-9.5%

1

94

BBSI

-9.6%

5

95

ESV

-10.3%

1

96

HW

-10.5%

2

97

AVCA

-10.6%

1

98

GDI

-10.9%

1

99

PTEN

-11.1%

7

100

CONN

-11.3%

1

101

WSTG

-11.8%

10

102

CRYP

-11.9%

1

103

RHI

-12.1%

1

104

MAS

-12.4%

1

105

IPSU

-12.4%

2

106

MEOH

-12.5%

6

107

HERO

-13.2%

3

108

GLYT

-13.2%

1

109

WIRE

-13.3%

2

110

ppd

-13.4%

1

111

LRW

-13.8%

13

112

PACR

-13.8%

8

113

HOC

-13.9%

6

114

HHS

-14.0%

2

115

UNTD

-14.1%

2

116

KYCN.OB

-14.1%

1

117

MYL

-14.6%

1

118

ZZ

-14.6%

1

119

PBH

-14.6%

1

120

XRTX

-14.9%

2

121

KNL

-15.2%

1

122

JAKK

-15.4%

5

123

LUFK

-15.5%

1

124

GCI

-15.7%

4

125

PNCL

-15.7%

13

126

KSWS

-16.0%

3

127

FRX

-16.2%

9

128

CSGS

-16.4%

2

129

TSO

-16.6%

3

130

GW

-16.9%

5

131

PMTI

-17.6%

3

132

DBRN

-17.8%

1

133

USHS

-17.9%

2

134

TRLG

-18.2%

1

135

EGLT

-18.7%

8

136

RAIL

-18.8%

15

137

PDS

-18.9%

1

138

HOG

-19.5%

3

139

VSE

-20.0%

1

140

UG

-20.4%

1

141

ISNS

-20.6%

1

142

NPLA

-22.2%

3

143

WNR

-22.5%

4

144

LXK

-22.7%

5

145

NOOF

-24.0%

6

146

OPMR

-24.3%

6

147

HWCC

-25.5%

1

148

tzoo

-25.6%

2

149

TGIS

-26.5%

14

150

DFZ

-27.7%

1

151

IVAC

-29.4%

10

152

NCI

-29.4%

1

153

BVF

-30.0%

10

154

AVR

-32.2%

2

155

KFY

-33.2%

4

156

USMO

-36.9%

2

157

VPHM

-37.0%

13

158

XJT

-37.3%

3

159

GVHR

-40.0%

1

160

KG

-41.9%

7

161

GYI

-42.1%

2

162

RURL

-43.5%

2

163

SHOO

-43.7%

4

164

HRSH

-43.8%

1

165

DEIX

-46.3%

1

166

ARO

-52.6%

2

167

MTEX

-54.5%

3

168

CLHI.PK

-57.9%

4

169

won

-64.7%

1

170

HLYS

-68.5%

2


Grand Total

-7.5%

662